Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive “canary” species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive “keystone” species. Further forcing leads to the eventual collapse of the keystone species as they are replaced by weakly competitive but fast‐replicating “weedy” species in a critical transition to a significantly different state. We identify a diagnostic signal of these changes in the coefficients of a correlation between compositional disorder and biodiversity. Compositional disorder measures unpredictability in the composition of a community, while biodiversity measures the amount of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi‐decadal time series of fossil diatom and chironomid communities from lakes in China. The characteristic switch from positive to negative correlation coefficients occurs for both communities up to three decades preceding a critical transition to a sustained alternate state. This signal is robust to unequal time increments that beset the identification of early‐warning signals from other metrics

Concert recording 2019-11-12

[Track 1]. Epitaph VI: Phoenix rising / Martin Ellerby -- [Track 2]. Now hear this / Ray Dempsey -- [Track 3]. Air on the G string / J.S. Bach arranged by Goble -- [Track 4]. Four pieces. I. Andante tranquillo [Track 5]. II. Allegro vivace [Track 6]. III. Larghetto [Track 7]. IV. Allegro / Gordon Jacob -- [Track 8]. Bottoms up rag / Keith Mehlan -- [Track 9]. When tubas waltz / Alfred H. Bartles -- [Track 10]. Requiem for a dead little cat / Ernst-Thilo Kalke -- [Track 11]. Inertia / Kenyon Wilson -- [Track 12]. Tubasonatina. I. Sea chanty [Track 13]. II. Meditation [Track 14]. III. Dance / Thom Ritter George -- [Track 15]. Pavane, op. 50 / Gabriel Faure arranged by Wilson -- [Track 16]. Quartet for tubas. I. Allegro [Track 17]. II. Andante [Track 18]. III. Vivo / Frank Lynn Payne

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development

Administrative Managers – A Critical Link

Institutional responses to changes in the higher education environment have caused movements in the roles and identities of administrative managers in UK universities. These shifts have highlighted the problem for individuals of balancing traditional public service considerations of administration with institutional innovation and development. Administrative managers find themselves not only acting as independent arbiters, giving impartial advice on the basis of professional expertise, but also becoming involved in political judgements about institutional futures. They increasingly undertake an interpretive function between the various communities of the university and its external partners. As the boundaries of the university have become more permeable, administrative and academic management have inter-digitated, and hybrid roles have developed. In undertaking increasingly complex functions, therefore, administrative managers play a critical role in linking the academic and executive arms of governance in the university

Psychosocial impact of undergoing prostate cancer screening for men with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations.

OBJECTIVES: To report the baseline results of a longitudinal psychosocial study that forms part of the IMPACT study, a multi-national investigation of targeted prostate cancer (PCa) screening among men with a known pathogenic germline mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. PARTICPANTS AND METHODS: Men enrolled in the IMPACT study were invited to complete a questionnaire at collaborating sites prior to each annual screening visit. The questionnaire included sociodemographic characteristics and the following measures: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Impact of Event Scale (IES), 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36), Memorial Anxiety Scale for Prostate Cancer, Cancer Worry Scale-Revised, risk perception and knowledge. The results of the baseline questionnaire are presented. RESULTS: A total of 432 men completed questionnaires: 98 and 160 had mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, respectively, and 174 were controls (familial mutation negative). Participants' perception of PCa risk was influenced by genetic status. Knowledge levels were high and unrelated to genetic status. Mean scores for the HADS and SF-36 were within reported general population norms and mean IES scores were within normal range. IES mean intrusion and avoidance scores were significantly higher in BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers than in controls and were higher in men with increased PCa risk perception. At the multivariate level, risk perception contributed more significantly to variance in IES scores than genetic status. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to report the psychosocial profile of men with BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations undergoing PCa screening. No clinically concerning levels of general or cancer-specific distress or poor quality of life were detected in the cohort as a whole. A small subset of participants reported higher levels of distress, suggesting the need for healthcare professionals offering PCa screening to identify these risk factors and offer additional information and support to men seeking PCa screening

Author Correction: Scalable and robust SARS-CoV-2 testing in an academic center.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper