When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?

We attempt to replicate a seminal paper that offered support for the rational expectations hypothesis and reported evidence that markets with certain features aggregate dispersed information. The original results are based on only a few observations, and our attempt to replicate the key findings with an appropriately powered experiment largely fails. The resulting poststudy probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model under the conditions specified in the original paper is very low. As a result of our failure to replicate, we investigate an alternate set of market features that combines aspects of the original experimental design. For these markets, which include both contingent claims and homogeneous dividend payments (as in many prediction markets), we do find robust evidence of information aggregation in support of the rational expectations model. In total, our results indicate that information aggregation in asset markets is fragile and should only be expected in limited circumstances

Reconsidering Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets

The ability of markets to aggregate diverse information is a cornerstone of economics and finance, and empirical evidence for such aggregation has been demonstrated in previous laboratory experiments. Most notably Plott and Sunder (1988) find clear support for the rational expectations hypothesis in their Series B and C markets. However, recent studies have called into question the robustness of these findings. In this paper, we report the result of a direct replication of the key information aggregation results presented in Plott and Sunder. We do not find the same strong evidence in support of rational expectations that Plott and Sunder report suggesting information aggregation is a fragile property of markets

Reconsidering Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets

The ability of markets to aggregate dispersed information is a cornerstone of economics and finance. In a seminal experiment, Plott and Sunder (1988) offer support for the rational expectations hypothesis. However, recent laboratory experiments have called into question the robustness of those initial results. In this paper, we offer the first attempt to directly replicate key findings of the original study. Failing to replicate their results, the post-study probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model is low. Given this result, we introduce a new treatment that implements a market structure consistent with naturally occurring prediction markets, which can be viewed as completing the original experimental design. In this new treatment, we find strong support for the rational expectations model. Thus, while the original paper showed conditions where markets can aggregate information, we attempt to identify sufficient conditions for such aggregation to be robust

Redox-dependent dimerization of p38 alpha mitogen-activated protein kinase with mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 3

The kinase p38α MAPK (p38α) plays a pivotal role in many biological processes. p38α is activated by canonical upstream kinases that phosphorylate the activation region. The purpose of our study was to determine whether such activation may depend on redox-sensing cysteines within p38α. p38α was activated and formed a disulfide-bound heterodimer with MAP2K3 (MKK3) in rat cardiomyocytes and isolated hearts exposed to H2O2 This disulfide heterodimer was sensitive to reduction by mercaptoethanol and was enhanced by the thioredoxin-reductase inhibitor auranofin. We predicted that Cys-119 or Cys-162 of p38α, close to the known MKK3 docking domain, were relevant for these redox characteristics. The C119S mutation decreased whereas the C162S mutation increased the dimer formation, suggesting that these two Cys residues act as vicinal thiols, consistent with C119S/C162S being incapable of sensing H2O2 Similarly, disulfide heterodimer formation was abolished in H9C2 cells expressing both MKK3 and p38α C119S/C162S and subjected to simulated ischemia and reperfusion. However, the p38α C119S/C162S mutants did not exhibit appreciable alteration in activating dual phosphorylation. In contrast, the anti-inflammatory agent 10-nitro-oleic acid (NO2-OA), a component of the Mediterranean diet, reduced p38α activation and covalently modified Cys-119/Cys-162, probably obstructing MKK3 access. Moreover, NO2-OA reduced the dephosphorylation of p38α by hematopoietic tyrosine phosphatase (HePTP). Furthermore, steric obstruction of Cys-119/Cys-162 by NO2-OA pretreatment in Langendorff-perfused murine hearts prevented the p38-MKK3 disulfide dimer formation and attenuated H2O2-induced contractile dysfunction. Our findings suggest that cysteine residues within p38α act as redox sensors that can dynamically regulate the association between p38 and MKK3.</p

Design and synthesis of wm5 analogues as HIV-1 TAR RNA binders

The 6-aminoquinolone WM5, previously identified by us, is among the most selective small molecules known as TAR RNA binders to show anti-HIV activity. Methods: Starting from WM5, a series of analogues modified at N-1, C-6 or C-7 position was prepared by inserting guanidine or amidine groups as well as other protonable moieties intended to electrostatically bind the phosphate backbone of TAR. All the compounds were tested for their ability to inhibit HIV-1 replication in MT-4 cells and in parallel for their cytotoxicity. The active compounds were also evaluated for their ability to interfere with the formation of the Tat-TAR complex using a Fluorescence Quenching Assay (FQA). Results: Some of the synthesized compounds showed an anti-HIV-1 activity in the sub-micromolar range with the naphthyridone derivatives being the most potent. Three of the synthesized derivatives were able to interact with the Tat-TAR complex formation presenting Ki values improved as compared to the values obtained with WM5. Conclusion: The addition of a pyridine-based protonable side chain at the N-1 position of the quinolone/naphthyridone core imparted to the compounds the ability to interfere with Tat-TAR complex formation and HIV-1 replicatio

Loss of bacterial diversity during antibiotic treatment of intubated patients colonized with Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Management of airway infections caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a serious clinical challenge, but little is known about the microbial ecology of airway infections in intubated patients. We analyzed bacterial diversity in endotracheal aspirates obtained from intubated patients colonized by P. aeruginosa by using 16S rRNA clone libraries and microarrays (PhyloChip) to determine changes in bacterial community compositions during antibiotic treatment. Bacterial 16S rRNA genes were absent from aspirates obtained from patients briefly intubated for elective surgery but were detected by PCR in samples from all patients intubated for longer periods. Sequencing of 16S rRNA clone libraries demonstrated the presence of many orally, nasally, and gastrointestinally associated bacteria, including known pathogens, in the lungs of patients colonized with P. aeruginosa. PhyloChip analysis detected the same organisms and many additional bacterial groups present at low abundance that were not detected in clone libraries. For each patient, both culture-independent methods showed that bacterial diversity decreased following the administration of antibiotics, and communities became dominated by a pulmonary pathogen. P. aeruginosa became the dominant species in six of seven patients studied, despite treatment of five of these six with antibiotics to which it was sensitive in vitro. Our data demonstrate that the loss of bacterial diversity under antibiotic selection is highly associated with the development of pneumonia in ventilated patients colonized with P. aeruginosa. Interestingly, PhyloChip analysis demonstrated reciprocal changes in abundance between P. aeruginosa and the class Bacilli, suggesting that these groups may compete for a similar ecological niche and suggesting possible mechanisms through which the loss of microbial diversity may directly contribute to pathogen selection and persistence

Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of Tadpole Chondrocrania from Histological Sections

Reconstructing three dimensional structures (3DR) from histological sections has always been difficult but is becoming more accessible with the assistance of digital imaging. We sought to assemble a low cost system using readily available hardware and software to generate 3DR for a study of tadpole chondrocrania. We found that a combination of RGB camera, stereomicroscope, and Apple Macintosh PowerPC computers running NIH Image, Object Image, Rotater. and SURFdriver software provided acceptable reconstructions. These are limited in quality primarily by the distortions arising from histological protocols rather than hardware or software

Sars-Cov-2 Serostatus and Covid-19 Illness Characteristics By Variant Time Period in Non-Hospitalized Children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE: to describe COVID-19 illness characteristics, risk factors, and SARS-CoV-2 serostatus by variant time period in a large community-based pediatric sample. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over four timepoints between October 2020 and November 2022 from a population-based cohort ages 5 to 19 years old. SETTING: State of Texas, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Participants ages 5 to 19 years were recruited from large pediatric healthcare systems, Federally Qualified Healthcare Centers, urban and rural clinical practices, health insurance providers, and a social media campaign. EXPOSURE: SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): SARS-CoV-2 antibody status was assessed by the Roche Elecsys RESULTS: Over half (57.2%) of the sample (N = 3911) was antibody positive. Symptomatic infection increased over time from 47.09% during the pre-Delta variant time period, to 76.95% during Delta, to 84.73% during Omicron, and to 94.79% during the Omicron BA.2. Those who were not vaccinated were more likely (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.47, 2.00) to be infected versus those fully vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Results show an increase in symptomatic COVID-19 infection among non-hospitalized children with each progressive variant over the past two years. Findings here support the public health guidance that eligible children should remain up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations

School wellbeing among children in grades 1 - 10

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Determinants of children's school wellbeing have not been extensively studied. In this cross-sectional study of school children we assessed how factors assumed to promote wellbeing and factors assumed to adversely influence wellbeing were associated with self-reported wellbeing in school.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Children from five schools, 230 boys and 189 girls in grades 1-10, responded to the same set of questions. We used proportional odds logistic regression to assess the associations of promoting and restraining factors with school wellbeing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a multivariable analysis, degree of school wellbeing in boys was strongly and positively related to enjoying school work (odds ratio, 3.84, 95% CI 2.38 to 6.22) and receiving necessary help (odds ratio, 3.55, 95% CI 2.17 to 5.80) from teachers. In girls, being bothered during lessons was strongly and negatively associated with school wellbeing (odds ratio, 0.43, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.85).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Different factors may determine school wellbeing in boys and girls, but for both genders, factors relevant for lessons may be more important than factors related to recess. Especially in boys, the student-teacher relationship may be of particular importance.</p

Methodology to Estimate Natural- and Vaccine-induced antibodies to Sars-Cov-2 in a Large Geographic Region

Accurate estimates of natural and/or vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are difficult to obtain. Although model-based estimates of seroprevalence have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters including viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach, the current study presents a data-driven detailed statistical procedure for estimating total seroprevalence (defined as antibodies from natural infection or from full vaccination) in a region using prospectively collected serological data and state-level vaccination data. Specifically, we conducted a longitudinal statewide serological survey with 88,605 participants 5 years or older with 3 prospective blood draws beginning September 30, 2020. Along with state vaccination data, as of October 31, 2021, the estimated percentage of those 5 years or older with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.0% (95% CI = (33.1%, 36.9%)). This is 3× higher than, state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (11.83%) for all ages. The percentage with naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies (total seroprevalence) is 77.42%. This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness as accurate estimates of seroprevalence can inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2