Economic measurement and modelling with large datasets: theory, application and policy implications

In this thesis I debate the merits of using large disaggregated datasets to drive economic theory, and its implications for economic policy making. In chapter 2 we use a previously unexplored dataset of 1/4 million photo-interpreted points to measure the supply of residential land across Europe. Using this dataset, we estimate the reduced-form parameters of a Pigovian externality model for land controls. We interpret the results of these estimates as evidence that across Europe the supply of residential land use is detrimentally restricted to below the social optimum. In chapter 3 the underlying dynamics of the UK consumer price in inflation are explored from 27:5 million underlying price quotes in the Consumer Price Index. We find evidence of secular trends in the pricing mechanism of firms in the UK, as well as support for the theory of state dependent pricing. Further, our results indicate that neither the Bank of England nor professional forecasters are taking into account the information embedded in a flexibility index which could improve their inflation forecasts. Lastly, in chapter 4 I explore a framework for decomposing the inflation rate into missing observations, product replacements and regular matched inflation rates. Using this framework I explore a potential source of bias in the inflation measurement of a particular narrow category of good, "Women's top, long sleeved, not blouse", due to uncaptured quality change. The results are preliminary, and difficult to interpret as the bias found could be explained by fashion cycles rather than being a measurement error. Finally, in chapter 5 I provide my concluding remarks, finding that there is indeed a benefit to exploring large disaggregated datasets, as they can uncover features of economic fundamentals that are not readily observable in aggregated data

Introduction: EU constraints and opportunities in the COVID-19 pandemic - the politics of NGEU

This Special Issue focuses on how EU politics, policies and institutions, all nested in the past, have a bearing on welfare states in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this introductory article, we first provide a brief overview of the growing scholarship on the impact of the pandemic on both national welfare systems and EU policies. We then contextualise the initial pandemic policy responses by highlighting the economic challenges to European welfare states leftover from the Great Recession and Eurozone crisis before outlining the timeline of the EU reaction to the COVID-19 crisis, culminating in the Next Generation EU deal. Finally, we summarize the distinctive empirical and theoretical perspectives of each contribution to this Special Issue. Taken together, the articles in this issue offer a much-needed analysis of the interplay between EU level and member state politics that furthers our understanding of the social and economic policies implemented in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Economic measurement and modelling with large datasets: theory, application and policy implications

In this thesis I debate the merits of using large disaggregated datasets to drive economic theory, and its implications for economic policy making. In chapter 2 we use a previously unexplored dataset of 1/4 million photo-interpreted points to measure the supply of residential land across Europe. Using this dataset, we estimate the reduced-form parameters of a Pigovian externality model for land controls. We interpret the results of these estimates as evidence that across Europe the supply of residential land use is detrimentally restricted to below the social optimum. In chapter 3 the underlying dynamics of the UK consumer price in inflation are explored from 27:5 million underlying price quotes in the Consumer Price Index. We find evidence of secular trends in the pricing mechanism of firms in the UK, as well as support for the theory of state dependent pricing. Further, our results indicate that neither the Bank of England nor professional forecasters are taking into account the information embedded in a flexibility index which could improve their inflation forecasts. Lastly, in chapter 4 I explore a framework for decomposing the inflation rate into missing observations, product replacements and regular matched inflation rates. Using this framework I explore a potential source of bias in the inflation measurement of a particular narrow category of good, "Women's top, long sleeved, not blouse", due to uncaptured quality change. The results are preliminary, and difficult to interpret as the bias found could be explained by fashion cycles rather than being a measurement error. Finally, in chapter 5 I provide my concluding remarks, finding that there is indeed a benefit to exploring large disaggregated datasets, as they can uncover features of economic fundamentals that are not readily observable in aggregated data

Sensitivities to Component Characterizations of Heavy Oil Viscosity in Numerical Reservoir Simulation of Steam-Injection Processes

This work examines heavy oil viscosity modelling during simulation of steam injection processes, such as steam-line-drive and SAGD, and the sensitivity of oil recovery predictions to the uncertainty in the oil viscosity. Analytical models to predict the sensitivity have been developed, confirmed by numerical simulation. Heavy oil compositional component viscosities are modelled with the Free Volume model. The model is extended in this thesis to estimate the viscosities of long-chain n-alkanes from C6H14 to C45H92 within an accuracy of 10% in the temperature range 27 to 300 °C (80 to 575 °F) and pressure range 0.1 to 120 MPa (14.5 to 17,400 psi). It estimates viscosities of long-chain n-alkanes up to C64H130 to within 30%. Extrapolated Free Volume molecular characteristic parameters, optimised based on available viscosity measurements for n-alkanes up to C64H130, are provided, and are the recommended values for use in heavy oil simulation. A heavy pseudo-component, representing a combination of asphaltenes and resins, which are the compounds responsible for the high viscosities observed in heavy oil, is characterised in terms of molecular weight, shape and activation energy for viscous flow. A method to predict its viscosity as a function of its physical properties, pressure and temperature, using the Free Volume model, is demonstrated. A density model based on the Tait model is extended, to predict the long-chain heavy oil compositional component densities within an accuracy of 3%, in the same temperature and pressure ranges as above. A grouping procedure is demonstrated to achieve oil recovery results comparable to a 24-component simulation case, using two pseudo-components. Key is the mixing equation used to calculate the oil phase viscosity as components are grouped. The Arrhenius mixing equation is evaluated for accuracy in predicting hydrocarbon mixture viscosities. Guidelines for accurate use are provided, while mixtures with CO2 are shown to require a different method.Open Acces

Integrated water resources management:limits and potential in the municipality of El Grullo, Mexico

Decreasing water availability per capita in more and more countries is the result of bad management over the past centuries. The 'world water crisis', however, is not inevitable. The concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) has been promoted over the last ten years as a possible way of reversing such a trend. One of its most fervent promoters is the Global Water Partnership, according to which "IWRM is a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems" (GWP, 2000: 22). A number of authors are critical of an appropriation of the IWRM concept by the Global Water Partnership devoid of its historical evolution over more than 70 years (Biswas, 2005; Mollard and Vargas, 2005a). As a result of this omission, these authors question the applicability and usefulness of the concept and call for assessing the effectiveness of IWRM implementation. The difficulties of practical IWRM implementation are manifold and include issues of scale, as well as institutional, political, and social constraints to sectoral and environmental integration (Tortajada, 2005; Duda and El-Ashry, 2000; Mitchell, 1990), that can be more or less specific to developing countries (Thioubou, 2002). The 1992 Mexican Water Law, amended in 2004, explicitly refers to IWRM as a national objective. As a result, there has been fairly extensive research on the implementation of IWRM in Mexico at the national level. This study assesses the implementation of IWRM efforts in the municipality of El Grullo (Jalisco), to identify the local and necessary conditions to enhance these. We first recall the innovative aspects of the IWRM concept, as compared to more traditional water management. Ambitious, integrated water resources management is a holistic approach that includes both the natural system (water and its diverse components –surface water/groundwater, quantity/quality– but also all other environmental resources such as land, forests and biodiversity in general) and the human system, including all the different uses (domestic, agricultural, industrial, etc.) (Mitchell, 1990). Integrated water management is an indicator of what Gleick (2000) qualifies as a change in paradigm between the 20th century –where infrastructure development enabled to better exploit resources, perceived as unlimited– and the 21st century, where finite resources are to be managed in order to maintain ecological integrity. Integrated water resources management is necessary to realise this 'blue revolution' (Calder, 2005). It requires, on the one hand, a participative and negotiation-oriented institutional framework and, on the other hand, water pricing tools, so as to balance demand and supply (Meublat, 2001). At the level of a municipality, implementing IWRM efforts translates, on the one hand, in ensuring good quality municipal water and sanitation services without impacting surrounding ecosystems and, on the other hand, participating –with other municipalities and institutions– in coordination activities at the level of the basin or sub-basin (Smits and Butterworth, 2006). Seven months of fieldwork over a three-year period enabled to realise a number of interviews, both with households in the El Grullo municipality (in four urban neighbourhoods and three villages) and with key informants (the local authorities of El Grullo and five neighbour municipalities, members of the Ayuquila-Armería Watershed Commission and researchers from the partner institution IMECBIO). These interviews were complemented by direct observation as well as secondary sources of information. Our results show that in spite of being well endowed in water resources, the municipality of El Grullo does not manage to provide good quality potable water services. Water distribution is irregular and forces households to resort to appropriate social practices (e.g. use of various storage methods and alternative water sources). The inequity of the variable water service quality is reinforced by a fixed water fee system, in the absence of meters. Further, the lack of any wastewater treatment station impacts riparian villages and aquatic ecosystems located downstream from the wastewater discharge. Efforts are currently underway to address these issues: the municipality wishes to have water meters installed, and is also negotiating a concession with a private company for a constructed wetland to treat municipal wastewaters. At the regional level, the Ayuquila-Armería Watershed Commission, which was established in 1998, is criticised for the poor effective participation it generates and its lack of means and concrete results. Created in reaction to finance local priorities, the Inter-municipal initiative of the lower Ayuquila watershed, a negotiation platform that convenes ten municipalities, is in comparison relatively successful. Developed through a ten year trust-building process by the researchers from the University of Guadalajara and the directorship of the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve, it has enabled the Ayuquila River to regain its original state, as well as set up a series of measures to protect the environment (e.g. the establishment of fire brigades and solid waste separation and recycling programmes). The Ayuquila-Armería Watershed Commission wishes, in turn, to replicate this model throughout the whole watershed. Although the management plan is still to be designed at the basin scale, these inter-municipal initiatives are indeed judged more flexible and better adapted to IWRM implementation. These results show that in order for the El Grullo municipality to enhance its efforts in terms of IWRM, important changes must take place. More specifically, decentralisation must be reinforced, at the level of both the municipal water board and the Ayuquila-Armería Watershed Commission. First, the potable water tariffs should be set independently by the municipal water board, on the basis of its operating costs –and not on that of political calculations, as is actually the case by the Jalisco State Congress. This would contribute to put an end to the vicious circle entailed by the municipal board's insufficient financial capacity (i.e. lack of staff, limited infrastructure maintenance, heterogeneous water services, lack of meters, non-payment of fees, etc.), along with other factors at stake (like encouraging a culture of payment). The Ayuquila-Armería Watershed Commission should also benefit from more freedom and means, in order to increase its credibility among the municipalities its territorial borders encompass. The effective transcription of the 2004 reform of the Water Law, which seems to point in that direction, is awaited by all those interested in this issue. This thesis thus confirms previous analyses of problems surrounding IWRM implementation in Mexico (Mollard and Vargas, 2005b; Tortajada, 2005; García, 2004; Centro del Tercer Mundo para el Manejo del Agua, 2003; Martínez et al., 2002b). It also highlights the importance of finding country-specific ways for ensuring effective IWRM implementation. In particular, this may mean considering other scales than that of river basins

Verlichte verhalen

By describing their present as ‘enlightened’, eighteenth-century intellectuals inevitably altered their relationship to the past. In search of an explanation for this Enlightenment, eighteenth-century authors created a historical narrative which connected European countries in a linear history from antiquity, through the barbarous Middle Ages, to the progress of the scientific revolution and, finally, to the enlightened present in which seventeenth-century knowledge was perceived as increasingly benefiting society as a whole. Even though this narrative served as a shared European history and identity, national varieties soon emerged. This book shows that, in the context of the European ‘Enlightened narrative’, the Dutch Republic formed an extraordinary case. Here, the narrative of progress collided with a simultaneous debate on national decline and a deeply rooted humanistic tradition. Dutch intellectuals, moreover, were forced to reconsider their national past and national identity. The Batavian myth, for two centuries the primary historical foundation of national identity, increasingly came to be viewed as ‘barbaric’. Consequently, the concept of a seventeenth-century Golden Age was invented. It replaced the Batavian myth with a celebration of seventeenth-century Dutch economic prosperity, commercial politeness and moral rectitude more in line with enlightened historical thought