La estimación de proporciones mediante técnicas Bayesianas

The estimation procedures based on Bayes' Theorem are still an unusual option in many of the environments of classic parametric inference. The aim of this paper is to show an effective scheme for the use of Bayesian estimation of unknown parameters. We have opted to focus on the estimation of parameters under the assumption of a binomial model, so that it can be followed by all those situations that meet the aforementioned probabilistic model. This approximation was studied in comparison with the classic parametric approximation, both in its point version and by means of interval estimation. On a study, by simulating samples of several sizes, we obtained empirical evidence regarding the advantage of the Bayesian procedure.ResumenLos procedimientos de estimación basados en el teorema de Bayes son inusuales en los diferentes ámbitos de aplicación de la inferencia paramétrica clásica. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un esquema para la estimación bayesiana de parámetros bajo los supuestos de un modelo binomial. El procedimiento Bayes se estudia en comparación con la aproximación paramétrica cl??sica, ambas opciones, en su versión puntual y mediante intervalos de estimación. Se presenta también un estudio de simulación con diferentes tamaños muestrales en el que se ponen de manifiesto las ventajas del procedimiento bayesiano.AbstractThe estimation procedures based on Bayes' Theorem are still an unusual option in many of the environments of classic parametric inference. The aim of this paper is to show an effective scheme for the use of Bayesian estimation of unknown parameters. We have opted to focus on the estimation of parameters under the assumption of a binomial model, so that it can be followed by all those situations that meet the aforementioned probabilistic model. This approximation was studied in comparison with the classic parametric approximation, both in its point version and by means of interval estimation. On a study, by simulating samples of several sizes, we obtained empirical evidence regarding the advantage of the Bayesian procedure

Epidemiological trends of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain, 2015-2019

Objectives: We assessed the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and active HCV infection (HCV-RNA-positive) in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Spain in 2019 and compared the results with those of four similar studies performed during 2015-2018. Methods: The study was performed in 41 centres. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 1%. Patients were selected by random sampling with proportional allocation. Results: The reference population comprised 41 973 PLWH, and the sample size was 1325. HCV serostatus was known in 1316 PLWH (99.3%), of whom 376 (28.6%) were HCV antibody (Ab)-positive (78.7% were prior injection drug users); 29 were HCV-RNA-positive (2.2%). Of the 29 HCV-RNA-positive PLWH, infection was chronic in 24, it was acute/recent in one, and it was of unknown duration in four. Cirrhosis was present in 71 (5.4%) PLWH overall, three (10.3%) HCV-RNA-positive patients and 68 (23.4%) of those who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy (p = 0.04). The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies decreased steadily from 37.7% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2019 (p < 0.001); the prevalence of active HCV infection decreased from 22.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Uptake of anti-HCV treatment increased from 53.9% in 2015 to 95.0% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In Spain, the prevalence of active HCV infection among PLWH at the end of 2019 was 2.2%, i.e. 90.0% lower than in 2015. Increased exposure to DAAs was probably the main reason for this sharp reduction. Despite the high coverage of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents, HCV-related cirrhosis remains significant in this population.This work was supported in part by the Spanish AIDS Research Network (RD16/0025/0017, RD16/0025/0018), which is included in the Spanish I+D+I Plan and is co-funded by the ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluación and European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER). The sponsors had no role in the study design, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data, the writing of the report, or the decision to submit the article for publication.S

Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatits C Virus Coinfection in Spain: Elimination Is Feasible, but the Burden of Residual Cirrhosis Will Be Significant

Background: We assessed the prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis C virus (HCV-Abs) and active HCV infection in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Spain in 2016 and compared the results with those of similar studies performed in 2002, 2009, and 2015. Methods: The study was performed in 43 centers during October-November 2016. The sample was estimated for an accuracy of 2% and selected by proportional allocation and simple random sampling. During 2016, criteria for therapy based on direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) were at least significant liver fibrosis, severe extrahepatic manifestations of HCV, and high risk of HCV transmissibility. Results: The reference population and the sample size were 38904 and 1588 patients, respectively. The prevalence of HCV-Abs in 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2016 was 60.8%, 50.2%, 37.7%, and 34.6%, respectively (P trend <.001, from 2002 to 2015). The prevalence of active HCV in 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2016 was 54.0%, 34.0%, 22.1%, and 11.7%, respectively (P trend <.001). The anti-HCV treatment uptake in 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2016 was 23.0%, 48.0%, 59.3%, and 74.7%, respectively (P trend <.001). In 2016, HCV-related cirrhosis was present in 7.6% of all HIV-infected individuals, 15.0% of patients with active HCV, and 31.5% of patients who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that with universal access to DAA-based therapy and continued efforts in prevention and screening, it will be possible to eliminate active HCV among HIV-infected individuals in Spain in the short term. However, the burden of HCV-related cirrhosis will continue to be significant among HIV-infected individuals.This work was funded by grant Ref. no. GLD14-00279 from the GILEAD Fellowship Programme (Spain) and by the Spanish AIDS Research Network (RD16/0025/0017, RD16/0025/0018) that is included in the Spanish I+D+I Plan and is co-financed by ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluacion and European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER).S

Neuroanatomical heterogeneity and homogeneity in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) demonstrate heterogeneity in clinical profiles and outcome features. However, the extent of neuroanatomical heterogeneity in the CHR-P state is largely undetermined. We aimed to quantify the neuroanatomical heterogeneity in structural magnetic resonance imaging measures of cortical surface area (SA), cortical thickness (CT), subcortical volume (SV), and intracranial volume (ICV) in CHR-P individuals compared with healthy controls (HC), and in relation to subsequent transition to a first episode of psychosis. The ENIGMA CHR-P consortium applied a harmonised analysis to neuroimaging data across 29 international sites, including 1579 CHR-P individuals and 1243 HC, offering the largest pooled CHR-P neuroimaging dataset to date. Regional heterogeneity was indexed with the Variability Ratio (VR) and Coefficient of Variation (CV) ratio applied at the group level. Personalised estimates of heterogeneity of SA, CT and SV brain profiles were indexed with the novel Person-Based Similarity Index (PBSI), with two complementary applications. First, to assess the extent of within-diagnosis similarity or divergence of neuroanatomical profiles between individuals. Second, using a normative modelling approach, to assess the ‘normativeness’ of neuroanatomical profiles in individuals at CHR-P. CHR-P individuals demonstrated no greater regional heterogeneity after applying FDR corrections. However, PBSI scores indicated significantly greater neuroanatomical divergence in global SA, CT and SV profiles in CHR-P individuals compared with HC. Normative PBSI analysis identified 11 CHR-P individuals (0.70%) with marked deviation (>1.5 SD) in SA, 118 (7.47%) in CT and 161 (10.20%) in SV. Psychosis transition was not significantly associated with any measure of heterogeneity. Overall, our examination of neuroanatomical heterogeneity within the CHR-P state indicated greater divergence in neuroanatomical profiles at an individual level, irrespective of psychosis conversion. Further large-scale investigations are required of those who demonstrate marked deviation.publishedVersio