The 2023 Latin America report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for health-centred climate-resilient development

In 2023, a series of climatological and political events unfolded, partly driving forward the global climate and health agenda while simultaneously exposing important disparities and vulnerabilities to climate-related events. On the policy front, a significant step forward was marked by the inaugural Health Day at COP28, acknowledging the profound impacts of climate change on health. However, the first-ever Global Stocktake showed an important gap between the current progress and the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, underscoring the urgent need for further and decisive action. From a Latin American perspective, some questions arise: How do we achieve the change that is needed? How to address the vulnerabilities to climate change in a region with longstanding social inequities? How do we promote intersectoral collaboration to face a complex problem such as climate change? The debate is still ongoing, and in many instances, it is just starting. The renamed regional centre Lancet Countdown Latin America (previously named Lancet Countdown South America) expanded its geographical scope adding Mexico and five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama, as a response to the need for stronger collaboration in a region with significant social disparities, including research capacities and funding. The centre is an independent and multidisciplinary collaboration that tracks the links between health and climate change in Latin America, following the global Lancet Countdown’s methodologies and five domains. The Lancet Countdown Latin America work hinges on the commitment of 23 regional academic institutions, United Nations agencies, and 34 researchers who generously contribute their time and expertise. Building from the first report, the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, presents 34 indicators that track the relationship between health and climate change up to 2022, aiming at providing evidence to public decisionmaking with the purpose of improving the health and wellbeing of Latin American populations and reducing social inequities through climate actions focusing on health. This report shows that Latin American populations continue to observe a growing exposure to changing climatic conditions. A warming trend has been observed across all countries in Latin America, with severe direct impacts. In 2022, people were exposed to ambient temperatures, on average, 0.38 ◦C higher than in 1986–2005, with Paraguay experiencing the highest anomaly (+1.9 ◦C), followed by Argentina (+1.2 ◦C) and Uruguay (+0.9 ◦C) (indicator 1.1.1). In 2013–2022, infants were exposed to 248% more heatwave days and people over 65 years old were exposed to 271% more heatwave days than in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2). Also, compared to 1991–2000, in 2013–2022, there were 256 and 189 additional annual hours per person, during which ambient heat posed at least moderate and high risk of heat stress during light outdoor physical activity in Latin America, respectively (indicator 1.1.3). Finally, the region had a 140% increase in heat-related mortality from 2000–2009 to 2013–2022 (indicator 1.1.4). Changes in ecosystems have led to an increased risk of wildfires, exposing individuals to very or extremely high fire danger for more extended periods (indicator 1.2.1). Additionally, the transmission potential for dengue by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has risen by 54% from 1951–1960 to 2013–2022 (indicator 1.3), which aligns with the recent outbreaks and increasing dengue cases observed across Latin America in recent months. Based on the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, there are three key messages that Latin America needs to further explore and advance for a health-centred climate-resilient development. Latin American countries require intersectoral public policies that simultaneously increase climate resilience, reduce social inequities, improve population health, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The findings show that adaptation policies in Latin America remain weak, with a pressing need for robust vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments to address climate risks effectively. Unfortunately, such assessments are scarce. Up to 2021, Brazil is the only country that has completed and officially reported a V&A to the 2021 Global Survey conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO). Argentina, Guatemala, and Panama have also conducted them, but they have not been reported (indicator 2.1.1). Similarly, efforts in developing and implementing Health National Adaptation Plans (HNAPs) are varied and limited in scope. Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay are the only countries that have an HNAP (indicator 2.1.2). Moreover, self-reported city-level climate change risk assessments are very limited in the region (indicator 2.1.3). The collaboration between meteorological and health sectors remains insufficient, with only Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala self-reporting some level of integration (indicator 2.2.1), hindering comprehensive responses to climate-related health risks in the region. Additionally, despite the urgent need for action, there has been minimal progress in increasing urban greenspaces across the region since 2015, with only Colombia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela showing slight improvements (indicator 2.2.2). Compounding these challenges is the decrease in funding for climate change adaptation projects in Latin America, as evidenced by the 16% drop in funds allocated by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in 2022 compared to 2021. Alarmingly, none of the funds approved in 2022 were directed toward climate change and health projects, highlighting a critical gap in addressing health-related climate risks (indicator 2.2.3). From a vulnerability perspective, the Mosquito Risk Index (MoRI) indicates an overall decrease in severe mosquitoborne disease risk in the region due to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) (indicator 2.3.1). Brazil and Paraguay were the only countries that showed an increase in this indicator. It is worth noting that significant temporal variation within and between countries still persists, suggesting inadequate preparedness for climate-related changes. Overall, population health is not solely determined by the health sector, nor are climate policies a sole responsibility of the environmental sector. More and stronger intersectoral collaboration is needed to pave development pathways that consider solid adaptation to climate change, greater reductions of GHG emissions, and that increase social equity and population health. These policies involve sectors such as finance, transport, energy, housing, health, and agriculture, requiring institutional structures and policy instruments that allow long-term intersectoral collaboration. Latin American countries need to accelerate an energy transition that prioritises people’s health and wellbeing, reduces energy poverty and air pollution, and maximises health and economic gains. In Latin America, there is a notable disparity in energy transition, with electricity generation from coal increasing by an average of 2.6% from 1991–2000 to 2011–2020, posing a challenge to efforts aimed at phasing out coal (indicator 3.1.1). However, this percentage increase is conservative as it may not include all the fossil fuels for thermoelectric electricity generation, especially during climate-related events and when hydropower is affected (Panel 4). Yet, renewable energy sources have been growing, increasing by an average of 5.7% during the same period. Access to clean fuels for cooking remains a concern, with 46.3% of the rural population in Central America and 23.3% in South America lacking access to clean fuels in 2022 (indicator 3.1.2). It is crucial to highlight the concerning overreliance on fossil fuels, particularly liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as a primary cooking fuel. A significant majority of Latin American populations, approximately 74.6%, rely on LPG for cooking. Transitioning to cleaner heating and cooking alternatives could also have a health benefit by reducing household air pollution-related mortality. Fossil fuels continue to dominate road transport energy in Latin America, accounting for 96%, although some South American countries are increasing the use of biofuels (indicator 3.1.3). Premature mortality attributable to fossil-fuel-derived PM2.5 has shown varied trends across countries, increasing by 3.9% from 2005 to 2020 across Latin America, which corresponds to 123.5 premature deaths per million people (indicator 3.2.1). The Latin American countries with the highest premature mortality rate attributable to PM2.5 in 2020 were Chile, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay. Of the total premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 in 2020, 19.1% was from transport, 12.3% from households, 11.6% from industry, and 11% from agriculture. From emission and capture of GHG perspective, commodity-driven deforestation and expansion of agricultural land remain major contributors to tree cover loss in the region, accounting for around 80% of the total loss (indicator 3.3). Additionally, animal-based food production in Latin America contributes 85% to agricultural CO2 equivalent emissions, with Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay ranking highest in per capita emissions (indicator 3.4.1). From a health perspective, in 2020, approximately 870,000 deaths were associated with imbalanced diets, of which 155,000 (18%) were linked to high intake of red and processed meat and dairy products (indicator 3.4.2). Energy transition in Latin America is still in its infancy, and as a result, millions of people are currently exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution and energy poverty (i.e., lack of access to essential energy sources or services). As shown in this report, the levels of air pollution, outdoors and indoors, are a significant problem in the whole region, with marked disparities between urban and rural areas. In 2022, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Brazil, Uruguay, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua were in the top 100 most polluted countries globally. Transitioning to cleaner sources of energy, phasing out fossil fuels, and promoting better energy efficiency in the industrial and housing sectors are not only climate mitigation measures but also huge health and economic opportunities for more prosperous and healthy societies. Latin American countries need to increase climate finance through permanent fiscal commitments and multilateral development banks to pave climate-resilient development pathways. Climate change poses significant economic costs, with investments in mitigation and adaptation measures progressing slowly. In 2022, economic losses due to weather-related extreme events in Latin America were US$15.6 billion –an amount mainly driven by floods and landslides in Brazil–representing 0.28 America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (indicator 4.1.1). In contrast to high-income countries, most of these losses lack insurance coverage, imposing a substantial financial strain on affected families and governments. Heat-related mortality among individuals aged 65 and older in Latin America reached alarming levels, with losses exceeding the equivalent of the average income of 451,000 people annually (indicator 4.1.2). Moreover, the total potential income loss due to heat-related labour capacity reduction amounted to 1.34 disproportionately affecting the agriculture and construction sectors (indicator 4.1.3). Additionally, the economic toll of premature mortality from air pollution was substantial, equivalent to a significant portion of regional GDP (0.61 On a positive note, clean energy investments in the region increased in 2022, surpassing fossil fuel investments. However, in 2020, all countries reviewed continued to offer net-negative carbon prices, revealing fossil fuel subsidies totalling US$23 billion. Venezuela had the highest net subsidies relative to current health expenditure (123%), followed by Argentina (10.5%), Bolivia (10.3%), Ecuador (8.3%), and Chile (5.6%) (indicator 4.2.1). Fossil fuel-based energy is today more expensive than renewable energy. Fossil fuel burning drives climate change and damages the environment on which people depend, and air pollution derived from the burning of fossil fuels causes seven million premature deaths each year worldwide, along with a substantial burden of disease. Transitioning to sustainable, zero-emission energy sources, fostering healthier food systems, and expediting adaptation efforts promise not only environmental benefits but also significant economic gains. However, to implement mitigation and adaptation policies that also improve social wellbeing and prosperity, stronger and solid financial systems are needed. Climate finance in Latin American countries is scarce and strongly depends on political cycles, which threatens adequate responses to the current and future challenges. Progress on the climate agenda is lagging behind the urgent pace required. While engagement with the intersection of health and climate change is increasing, government involvement remains inadequate. Newspaper coverage of health and climate change has been on the rise, peaking in 2022, yet the proportion of climate change articles discussing health has declined over time (indicator 5.1). Although there has been significant growth in the number of scientific papers focusing on Latin America, it still represents less than 4% of global publications on the subject (indicator 5.3). And, while health was mentioned by most Latin American countries at the UN General Debate in 2022, only a few addressed the intersection of health and climate change, indicating a lack of awareness at the governmental level (indicator 5.4). The 2023 Lancet Countdown Latin America report underscores the cascading and compounding health impacts of anthropogenic climate change, marked by increased exposure to heatwaves, wildfires, and vector-borne diseases. Specifically, for Latin America, the report emphasises three critical messages: the urgent action to implement intersectoral public policies that enhance climate resilience across the region; the pressing need to prioritise an energy transition that focuses on health co-benefits and wellbeing, and lastly, that need for increasing climate finance by committing to sustained fiscal efforts and engaging with multilateral development banks. By understanding the problems, addressing the gaps, and taking decisive action, Latin America can navigate the challenges of climate change, fostering a more sustainable and resilient future for its population. Spanish and Portuguese translated versions of this Summary can be found in Appendix B and C, respectively. The full translated report in Spanish is available in Appendix D

Low prevalence of renal, cardiac, pulmonary, and neurological extra-articular clinical manifestations in spondyloarthritis: analysis of the Brazilian Registry of Spondyloarthritis

OBJECTIVE: To describe the extra-articular manifestations (cardiac, renal, pulmonary, and neurological), usually not related to spondyloarthritis (SpA), in a large cohort of Brazilian patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed 1,472 patients diagnosed with SpA and cared for at 29 health care centers distributed in the five major geographic regions in the country, participating in the Brazilian Registry of Spondyloarthritis (BRS). All patients were assessed for the prevalence of major extra-articular manifestations (cardiac, renal, pulmonary, and neurological), classified according to the diagnosis [ankylosing spondylitis (AS), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), reactive arthritis (ReA), arthritis associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), undifferentiated spondyloarthritis (uSpA), and juvenile SpA], and according to the clinical presentation (axial, peripheral, mixed, and enthesitis). RESULTS: Of the patients with SpA assessed, 963 had AS, 271 PsA, 49 ReA, 48 arthritis associated with IBD, 98 uSpA, and 43 juvenile SpA. Cardiac involvement was reported in 44 patients (3.0%), pulmonary involvement in 19 (1.3%), renal involvement in 17 (1.2%), and neurological involvement in 13 patients (0.9%). Most patients with visceral involvement had AS or PsA, and the mixed (axial + peripheral) and/or predominantly axial clinical form. CONCLUSION: Cardiac, renal, pulmonary, and neurological extra-articular manifestations are quite infrequent in SpA, ranging from 0.9% to 3% in this large Brazilian cohort, and affected predominantly patients with AS and PsA.OBJETIVO: Descrever as manifestações extra-articulares (cardíacas, renais, pulmonares e neurológicas) geralmente não relacionadas às espondiloartrites (EpA) em uma grande coorte de pacientes brasileiros. MÉTODOS: Este estudo retrospectivo analisou 1.472 pacientes com o diagnóstico de EpA atendidos em 29 centros distribuídos pelas cinco principais regiões geográficas do Brasil, integrantes do Registro Brasileiro de Espondiloartrites. Todos os pacientes foram avaliados para a prevalência das principais manifestações extra-articulares (cardíacas, renais, pulmonares e neurológicas), divididas por diagnóstico [espondilite anquilosante (EA), artrite psoriásica (AP), artrite reativa (ARe), artrite associada a doença inflamatória intestinal (DII), EpA indiferenciada (EI) e EpA juvenil] e por forma clínica (axial, periférica, mista e entesítica). RESULTADOS: Dentre os pacientes avaliados com EpA, 963 apresentavam EA, 271 AP, 49 ARe, 48 artrite associada a DII, 98 EI e 43 EpA juvenil. Acometimento cardíaco foi observado em 44 pacientes (3,0%), seguido por acometimento pulmonar em 19 (1,3%), renal em 17 (1,2%) e neurológico em 13 pacientes (0,9%). A maioria dos casos de acometimento visceral ocorreu nos pacientes com EA ou AP e naqueles com forma clínica mista (axial e periférica) e/ou predominantemente axial. CONCLUSÃO: As manifestações extra-articulares cardíacas, renais, pulmonares e neurológicas são muito pouco frequentes nas EpA, variando de 0,9%-3% nesta grande coorte brasileira, estando mais associadas a EA e AP.37938

Large-scale unit commitment under uncertainty: an updated literature survey

The Unit Commitment problem in energy management aims at finding the optimal production schedule of a set of generation units, while meeting various system-wide constraints. It has always been a large-scale, non-convex, difficult problem, especially in view of the fact that, due to operational requirements, it has to be solved in an unreasonably small time for its size. Recently, growing renewable energy shares have strongly increased the level of uncertainty in the system, making the (ideal) Unit Commitment model a large-scale, non-convex and uncertain (stochastic, robust, chance-constrained) program. We provide a survey of the literature on methods for the Uncertain Unit Commitment problem, in all its variants. We start with a review of the main contributions on solution methods for the deterministic versions of the problem, focussing on those based on mathematical programming techniques that are more relevant for the uncertain versions of the problem. We then present and categorize the approaches to the latter, while providing entry points to the relevant literature on optimization under uncertainty. This is an updated version of the paper "Large-scale Unit Commitment under uncertainty: a literature survey" that appeared in 4OR 13(2), 115--171 (2015); this version has over 170 more citations, most of which appeared in the last three years, proving how fast the literature on uncertain Unit Commitment evolves, and therefore the interest in this subject

Quality of life in spondyloarthritis : analysis of a large Brazilian cohort

Objetivo: analisar as variáveis demográficas e clínicas associadas à diminuição da qualidade de vida em uma grande coorte brasileira de pacientes com espondiloartrite (EpA). Métodos: Foi aplicado um protocolo de pesquisa único a 1.465 pacientes brasileiros classificados como tendo EpA de acordo com os critérios do European Spondyloarthropaties Study Group (ESSG), atendidos em 29 centros de referência em reumatologia do Brasil. Foram registradas as variáveis clínicas e demográficas. A qualidade de vida foi analisada por meio do questionário Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life (ASQoL). Resultados: A pontuação média do ASQoL foi de 7,74 (+ 5,39). Ao analisar doenças específicas no grupo de EpA, as pontuações do ASQoL não apresentaram diferença estatisticamente significativa. Os dados demográficos mostraram piores escores de ASQoL associados ao gênero feminino (p = 0,014) e etnia negra (p < 0,001). Quanto aos sintomas clínicos, a dor na região glútea (p = 0,032), a dor cervical (p < 0,001) e a dor no quadril (p = 0,001), estiveram estatisticamente associadas a piores escores no ASQoL. O uso contínuo de fármacos anti-inflamatórios não esteroides (p < 0,001) e agentes biológicos (p = 0,044) esteve associado a escores mais elevados de ASQoL, enquanto outros medicamentos não interferiram nos escores do ASQoL. Conclusão: Nesta grande série de pacientes com EpA, o sexo feminino e a etnia negra, bem como sintomas predominantemente axiais, estiveram associados a uma qualidade de vida reduzida.Objective: to analyze quality of life and demographic and clinical variables associated to its impairment in a large Brazilian cohort of patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA). Methods: A common protocol of investigation was applied to 1465 Brazilian patients classified as SpA according to the European Spondyloarthropaties Study Group (ESSG) criteria, attended at 29 reference centers for Rheumatology in Brazil. Clinical and demographic variables were recorded. Quality of life was analyzed through the Ankylosing Spondylitis Quality of Life (ASQoL) questionnaire. Results: The mean ASQoL score was 7.74 (± 5.39). When analyzing the specific diseases in the SpA group, the ASQoL scores did not present statistical significance. Demographic data showed worse scores of ASQoL associated with female gender (p = 0.014) and African-Brazilian ethnicity (p < 0.001). Regarding clinical symptoms, buttock pain (p = 0.032), cervical pain (p < 0.001) and hip pain (p = 0.001), were statistically associated with worse scores of ASQoL. Continuous use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (p < 0.001) and biologic agents (p = 0.044) were associated with higher scores of ASQoL, while the other medications did not interfere with the ASQoL scores. Conclusion: In this large series of patients with SpA, female gender and African-Brazilian ethnicity, as well as predominant axial symptoms, were associated with impaired quality of life

New Century, Old Disparities: Gender and Ethnic Wage Gaps in Latin America

This paper surveys gender and ethnic wage gaps in 18 Latin American countries, decomposing differences using matching comparisons as a non-parametric alternative to the Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition. It is found that men earn 9-27 percent more than women, with high cross-country heterogeneity. The unexplained pay gap is higher among older, informal and self-employed workers and those in small firms. Ethnic wage differences are greater than gender differences, and educational attainment differentials play an important role in explaining the gap. Higher ethnic wage gaps are found among males, singleincome generators of households and full-time workers, and in rural areas. An important share of the ethnic wage gap is due to the scarcity of minorities in highpaid positions

Adolescent's insight within the working alliance: A bridge between diagnostic and psychotherapeutic processes

In the literature it has been stressed how important it is during consultation interviews to evaluate an adolescent\u2019s insight with a view to starting psychotherapeutic work. Motivated adolescents bring to the therapeutic effort a real, interiorized request for help and can start moving towards a change. The aim of this study is to assess the insight of adolescents with mental disorders during the diagnostic process and to analyze how this relates to further therapeutic compliance and clinical evolution. The study included 55 adolescents, 35 males and 20 females aged between 11 and 19 years, who were advised to receive psychotherapeutic treatment after a diagnostic procedure. Patient insight was assessed at the beginning and end of the diagnostic process. Then, six months later, a clinical interview assessed their therapeutic compliance and clinical evolution. The findings suggest that insight is important when working with adolescents because it influences both therapeutic compliance and clinical outcome

Working on adolescent's motivation to improve the outcome within a multimodal treatment

Authors' experience and literature evidencing that an early alliance has been found to be a better predictor of outcome than alliance averaged across sessions or measured in the middle or late phase of treatment, stimulated to think of and to evaluate, during clinical practice, some strategies to favour adolescent\u2019s motivation to follow therapeutic suggestion given at the end of the diagnostic process. For this reason Authors think of a diagnostic protocol which considers, with psychiatric diagnosis (ICD 10) and clinical evaluation (psychopathological investigation), to pay particular attention to motivational aspects. To do that they referred to the experience of interviewing used at the Brent Centre of Young People of London. Results by a cases report study are presented