An observed 20-year time series of Agulhas leakage

We provide a time series of Agulhas leakage anomalies over the last 20-years from satellite altimetry. Until now, measuring the interannual variability of Indo-Atlantic exchange has been the major barrier in the investigation of the dynamics and large scale impact of Agulhas leakage. We compute the difference of transport between the Agulhas Current and Agulhas Return Current, which allows us to deduce Agulhas leakage. The main difficulty is to separate the Agulhas Return Current from the southern limb of the subtropical "supergyre" south of Africa. For this purpose, an algorithm that uses absolute dynamic topography data is developed. The algorithm is applied to a state-of-the-art ocean model. The comparison with a Lagrangian method to measure the leakage allows us to validate the new method. An important result is that it is possible to measure Agulhas leakage in this model using the velocity field along a section that crosses both the Agulhas Current and the Agulhas Return Current. In the model a good correlation is found between measuring leakage using the full depth velocities and using only the surface geostrophic velocities. This allows us to extend the method to along-track absolute dynamic topography from satellites. It is shown that the accuracy of the mean dynamic topography does not allow us to determine the mean leakage but that leakage anomalies can be accurately computed

Reply to comments on ‘On the steadiness of separating meandering currents’

The authors thank Nof et al. for their comments on the authors’ paper ‘‘On the steadiness of separating meandering currents.’’ The authors’ paper was motivated by a series of papers by Nof et al. Under a certain set of conditions (reduced gravity, steady state, no meridional velocity at outflow, and parallel outflow), Nof et al. showed that a separating and retroflecting frictionless current cannot be steady because of a momentum imbalance. The main conclusion of the authors’ paper was that they agree with the Nof et al. result that a momentum imbalance exists and extended the proof to all possible configurations of retroflecting currents, even including friction. The authors’ results point to a new mechanism for the generation of variability in the ocean that is not related to dynamical instability of the flow. The main claim in the comments is that the authors incorrectly argued in the appendix that the steadystate solutions presented by Nof et al. in several papers fulfill the extra constraint u2 5g9h. In the original paper, the authors showed that it follows from the geostrophic assumption stated implicitly in all these Nof et al. papers, because the flow is assumed to be parallel. Nof et al. now argue that the flow is only approximately geostrophic in all Nof et al. papers. The authors show in this reply that for steady weakly meandering outflows approximate geostrophy does lead to a momentum imbalance paradox as Nof et al. claim. However, for a steady strongly meandering outflow, approximate geostrophy is not enough and one has to use the method explored by van Leeuwen and De Ruijter to derive a momentum imbalance paradox

NT-proBNP, blood pressure, and cognitive decline in the oldest old The Leiden 85-plus Study

Neuro Imaging Researc

Risk stratification and treatment effect of statins in secondary cardiovascular prevention in old age: additive value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide

Background To date, no validated risk scores exist for prediction of recurrence risk or potential treatment effect for older people with a history of a cardiovascular event. Therefore, we assessed predictive values for recurrent cardiovascular disease of models with age and sex, traditional cardiovascular risk markers, and ‘SMART risk score’, all with and without addition of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Treatment effect of pravastatin was assessed across low and high risk groups identified by the best performing models. Design and methods Post-hoc analysis in 2348 participants (age 70–82 years) with a history of cardiovascular disease within the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study. Composite endpoint was a recurrent cardiovascular event/cardiovascular mortality. Results The models with age and sex, traditional risk markers and SMART risk score had comparable predictive values (area under the curve (AUC) 0.58, 0.61 and 0.59, respectively). Addition of NT-proBNP to these models improved AUCs with 0.07 (p for difference ((pdiff)) = 0.003), 0.05 (pdiff = 0.009) and 0.06 (pdiff < 0.001), respectively. For the model with age, sex and NT-proBNP, the hazard ratio for the composite endpoint in pravastatin users compared with placebo was 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.49–0.90) for those in the highest third of predicted risk and 0.91 (0.57–1.46) in the lowest third, number needed to treat 12 and 115 (pdiff = 0.038) respectively. Conclusion In secondary cardiovascular prevention in old age addition of NT-proBNP improves prediction of recurrent cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular mortality and treatment effect of pravastatin. A minimal model including age, sex and NT-proBNP predicts as accurately as complex risk models including NT-proBNP

Voorwaarts met de milieuprestaties van de Nederlandse open-teelt sectoren: een verkenning naar 2020 ten behoeve van 'Telen met toekomst'

Dit rapport beschrijft het overheidsbeleid voor landbouw en milieu op het gebied van nutriënten en gewasbeschermingsmiddelen, en de daaruit afgeleide doelen welke voor de bedrijven binnen 'Telen met toekomst' gesteld zullen worden. Verder worden beschreven de huidige milieuprestaties van de vier sectoren en de tekortkomingen ten aanzien van milieudoelstellingen en oplossingsrichtingen om de gestelde doelen te kunnen gaan voldoe

Seasonal variability in the Agulhas Retroflection region

The objective of this article is to present evidence for the existence of seasonal variability in sea surface height (SSH) anomaly in the Agulhas Retroflection region. TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data are used to estimate seasonal changes in the mesoscale SSH variability. There is a seasonal oscillation of SSH variability characterized by a maximum during the austral summer and a minimum during the austral winter. The amplitude of this seasonal change is approximately 30% of its mean value. During the winter season the spatial distribution of SSH variability resembles that of the annual mean variability, with relative maxima centered at approximately 18°F, 27°F and 38°F. During the summer there is an additional maximum which extends from approximately 20°F to 25°F and from 40° to 42°S. Analysis of longitude-time diagrams reveals that at low latitudes planetary waves propagate freely throughout the basin. Along the latitude of the Agulhas Retroflection region, the East Madagascar Ridge hampers the westward propagation of planetary waves. It is speculated that the difference between summer and winter patterns is caused by an inertially driven bifurcation of the Agulhas Current

A Comparative Study of Defeasible Argumentation and Non-monotonic Fuzzy Reasoning for Elderly Survival Prediction Using Biomarkers

Computational argumentation has been gaining momentum as a solid theoretical research discipline for inference under uncertainty with incomplete and contradicting knowledge. However, its practical counterpart is underdeveloped, with a lack of studies focused on the investigation of its impact in real-world settings and with real knowledge. In this study, computational argumentation is compared against non-monotonic fuzzy reasoning and evaluated in the domain of biological markers for the prediction of mortality in an elderly population. Different non-monotonic argument-based models and fuzzy reasoning models have been designed using an extensive knowledge base gathered from an expert in the field. An analysis of the true positive and false positive rate of the inferences of such models has been performed. Findings indicate a superior inferential capacity of the designed argument-based models

The homocysteine controversy

Mild to moderate hyperhomocysteinemia has been identified as a strong predictor of cardiovascular disease, independent from classical atherothrombotic risk factors. In the last decade, a number of large intervention trials using B vitamins have been performed and have shown no benefit of homocysteine-lowering therapy in high-risk patients. In addition, Mendelian randomization studies failed to convincingly demonstrate that a genetic polymorphism commonly associated with higher homocysteine levels (methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase 677 C>T) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Together, these findings have cast doubt on the role of homocysteine in cardiovascular disease pathogenesis, and the homocysteine hypothesis has turned into a homocysteine controversy. In this review, we attempt to find solutions to this controversy. First, we explain that the Mendelian randomization analyses have limitations that preclude final conclusions. Second, several characteristics of intervention trials limit interpretation and generalizability of their results. Finally, the possibility that homocysteine lowering is in itself beneficial but is offset by adverse side effects of B vitamins on atherosclerosis deserves serious attention. As we explain, such side effects may relate to direct adverse effects of the B-vitamin regimen (in particular, the use of high-dose folic acid) or to proinflammatory and proproliferative effects of B vitamins on advanced atherosclerotic lesions

A broader role for AmyR in Aspergillus niger: regulation of the utilisation of d-glucose or d-galactose containing oligo- and polysaccharides

AmyR is commonly considered a regulator of starch degradation whose activity is induced by the presence of maltose, the disaccharide building block of starch. In this study, we demonstrate that the role of AmyR extends beyond starch degradation. Enzyme activity assays, genes expression analysis and growth profiling on d-glucose- and d-galactose-containing oligo- and polysaccharides showed that AmyR regulates the expression of some of the Aspergillus niger genes encoding α- and β-glucosidases, α- and β- galactosidases, as well as genes encoding α-amlyases and glucoamylases. In addition, we provide evidence that d-glucose or a metabolic product thereof may be the inducer of the AmyR system in A. niger and not maltose, as is commonly assumed