Quantiles, Expectiles and Splines

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining property of fixed quantiles in having the appropriate number of observations above and below. Expectiles are similar to quantiles except that they are defined by tail expectations. Like quantiles, time varying expectiles can be estimated by a state space signal extraction algorithm and they satisfy properties that generalize the moment conditions associated with fixed expectiles. Time-varying quantiles and expectiles provide information on various aspects of a time series, such as dispersion and asymmetry, while estimates at the end of the series provide the basis for forecasting. Because the state space form can handle irregularly spaced observations, the proposed algorithms can be easily adapted to provide a viable means of computing spline-based non-parametric quantile and expectile regressions

Time-Varying Quantiles

A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. Quantiles estimated in this way provide information on various aspects of a time series, including dispersion, asymmetry and, for financial applications, value at risk. Tests for the constancy of quantiles, and associated contrasts, are constructed using indicator variables; these tests have a similar form to stationarity tests and, under the null hypothesis, their asymptotic distributions belong to the Cramér von Mises family. Estimates of the quantiles at the end of the series provide the basis for forecasting. As such they offer an alternative to conditional quantile autoregressions and, at the same time, give some insight into their structure and potential drawbacks

Inhibition of HSP70 expression by calcium ionophore A23187 in human cells. An effect independent of the acquisition of DNA-binding activity by the heat shock transcription factor

Heat shock proteins (HSPs) are induced in mammalian cells in a variety of pathophysiological states and have an important role in cytoprotection in vitro and in vivo. In this study, we report that the calcium ionophore A23187, a glucose-regulated protein (GRP) inducer, dramatically inhibits HSP70 synthesis and HSP70 mRNA transcription after induction by heat shock, sodium arsenite, or prostaglandin A1 treatment in human K562 cells. A23187 does not suppress, and it actually prolongs, the DNA-binding activity of the human heat shock transcription factor (HSF), while it alters HSF1 phosphorylation in heat shock-treated cells. To inhibit HSP70 expression, A23187 needs to be present during heat shock, while treatment before or after heat shock does not affect HSP70 mRNA transcription. The GRP inducer thapsigargin, which specifically inhibits the endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+-ATPase, has no effect on heat-induced HSP70 synthesis, indicating that A23187 inhibitory activity is not due to depletion of intracellular calcium stores and is independent of the concomitant induction of GRP genes. Inhibition of HSP70 expression is correlated with alterations in HSF1 phosphorylation in heat-shocked cells, but not in sodium arsenite-treated cells, indicating that different mechanisms may be involved in mediating A23187 inhibitory activity

Oneiric stress and safety and security at work: the discovery of a new universal symbol

Cox and Griffiths define as psychosocial risks at work “those aspects of the planning, organization and management of work, which, along with their environmental and social contexts, may affect mental and physical health of the employees, directly or indirectly producing stress”. Therefore, a more effective approach to occupational safety and security should include integrated risk management through the identification of any work stress related problem. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the possible correlation of risk at work with the modification of sleep, and inside it, the specific function of dream activity

Antipolymer antibody in Italian fibromyalgic patients

The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the presence of antipolymer antibody (APA) seropositivity in 285 Italian patients affected by primary fibromyalgia (FM) and to verify whether APA levels correlate with disease severity and with cytokine levels

Alteration of serotonin transporter density and activity in fibromyalgia

The aim of the study was to evaluate the kinetic parameters of a specific serotonin transporter (SERT) and serotonin uptake in a mentally healthy subset of patients with fibromyalgia. Platelets were obtained from 40 patients and 38 healthy controls. SERT expression and functionality were evaluated through the measurement of [(3)H]paroxetine binding and the [(3)H]serotonin uptake itself. The values of maximal membrane binding capacity (B(max)) were statistically lower in the patients than in the healthy volunteers, whereas the dissociation constant (K(d)) did not show any statistically significant variations. Moreover, a decrease in the maximal uptake rate of SERT (V(max)) was demonstrated in the platelets of patients, whereas the Michaelis constant (K(m)) did not show any statistically significant variations. Symptom severity score (tiredness, tender points index and Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire) were negatively correlated with B(max )and with V(max), and positively correlated with K(m). A change in SERT seems to occur in fibromyalgic patients, and it seems to be related to the severity of fibromyalgic symptoms

Does a pre-hospital emergency pathway improve early diagnosis and referral in suspected stroke patients? – Study protocol of a cluster randomised trial [ISRCTN41456865]

BACKGROUND: Early interventions proved to be able to improve prognosis in acute stroke patients. Prompt identification of symptoms, organised timely and efficient transportation towards appropriate facilities, become essential part of effective treatment. The implementation of an evidence based pre-hospital stroke care pathway may be a method for achieving the organizational standards required to grant appropriate care. We performed a systematic search for studies evaluating the effect of pre-hospital and emergency interventions for suspected stroke patients and we found that there seems to be only a few studies on the emergency field and none about implementation of clinical pathways. We will test the hypothesis that the adoption of emergency clinical pathway improves early diagnosis and referral in suspected stroke patients. We designed a cluster randomised controlled trial (C-RCT), the most powerful study design to assess the impact of complex interventions. The study was registered in the Current Controlled Trials Register: ISRCTN41456865 – Implementation of pre-hospital emergency pathway for stroke – a cluster randomised trial. METHODS/DESIGN: Two-arm cluster-randomised trial (C-RCT). 16 emergency services and 14 emergency rooms were randomised either to arm 1 (comprising a training module and administration of the guideline), or to arm 2 (no intervention, current practice). Arm 1 participants (152 physicians, 280 nurses, 50 drivers) attended an interactive two sessions course with continuous medical education CME credits on the contents of the clinical pathway. We estimated that around 750 patients will be met by the services in the 6 months of observation. This duration allows recruiting a sample of patients sufficient to observe a 30% improvement in the proportion of appropriate diagnoses. Data collection will be performed using current information systems. Process outcomes will be measured at the cluster level six months after the intervention. We will assess the guideline recommendations for emergency and pre-hospital stroke management relative to: 1) promptness of interventions for hyperacute ischaemic stroke; 2) promptness of interventions for hyperacute haemorrhagic stroke 3) appropriate diagnosis. Outcomes will be expressed as proportions of patients with a positive CT for ischaemic stroke and symptoms onset <= 6 hour admitted to the stroke unit. DISCUSSION: The fields in which this trial will play are usually neglected by Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT). We have chosen the Cluster-randomised Controlled Trial (C-RCT) to address the issues of contamination, adherence to real practice, and community dimension of the intervention, with a complex definition of clusters and an extensive use of routine data to collect the outcomes

An Exploratory Study of Field Failures

Field failures, that is, failures caused by faults that escape the testing phase leading to failures in the field, are unavoidable. Improving verification and validation activities before deployment can identify and timely remove many but not all faults, and users may still experience a number of annoying problems while using their software systems. This paper investigates the nature of field failures, to understand to what extent further improving in-house verification and validation activities can reduce the number of failures in the field, and frames the need of new approaches that operate in the field. We report the results of the analysis of the bug reports of five applications belonging to three different ecosystems, propose a taxonomy of field failures, and discuss the reasons why failures belonging to the identified classes cannot be detected at design time but shall be addressed at runtime. We observe that many faults (70%) are intrinsically hard to detect at design-time