The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization, among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development trends for the 40-year period 1970-2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations

The Predictive Accuracy of the General Movement Assessment for Cerebral Palsy: A Prospective, Observational Study of High-Risk Infants in a Clinical Follow-Up Setting

Background: Early prediction of cerebral palsy (CP) using the General Movement Assessment (GMA) during the fidgety movements (FM) period has been recommended as standard of care in high-risk infants. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of GMA, alone or in combination with neonatal imaging, in predicting cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: Infants with increased risk of perinatal brain injury were prospectively enrolled from 2009–2014 in this multi-center, observational study. FM were classified by two certified GMA observers blinded to the clinical history. Abnormal GMA was defined as absent or sporadic FM. CP-status was determined by clinicians unaware of GMA results. Results: Of 450 infants enrolled, 405 had scorable video and follow-up data until at least 18–24 months. CP was confirmed in 42 (10.4%) children at mean age 3 years 1 month. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of absent/sporadic FM for CP were 76.2, 82.4, 33.3, 96.8, and 81.7%, respectively. Only three (8.1%) of 37 infants with sporadic FM developed CP. The highest accuracy (95.3%) was achieved by a combination of absent FM and abnormal neonatal imaging. Conclusion: In infants with a broad range of neonatal risk factors, accuracy of early CP prediction was lower for GMA than previously reported but increased when combined with neonatal imaging. Sporadic FM did not predict CP in this study

Machine Learning of Infant Spontaneous Movements for the Early Prediction of Cerebral Palsy: A Multi-Site Cohort Study

Background: Early identification of cerebral palsy (CP) during infancy will provide opportunities for early therapies and treatments. The aim of the present study was to present a novel machine-learning model, the Computer-based Infant Movement Assessment (CIMA) model, for clinically feasible early CP prediction based on infant video recordings. Methods: The CIMA model was designed to assess the proportion (%) of CP risk-related movements using a time–frequency decomposition of the movement trajectories of the infant’s body parts. The CIMA model was developed and tested on video recordings from a cohort of 377 high-risk infants at 9–15 weeks corrected age to predict CP status and motor function (ambulatory vs. non-ambulatory) at mean 3.7 years age. The performance of the model was compared with results of the general movement assessment (GMA) and neonatal imaging. Results: The CIMA model had sensitivity (92.7%) and specificity (81.6%), which was comparable to observational GMA or neonatal cerebral imaging for the prediction of CP. Infants later found to have non-ambulatory CP had significantly more CP risk-related movements (median: 92.8%, p = 0.02) compared with those with ambulatory CP (median: 72.7%). Conclusion: The CIMA model may be a clinically feasible alternative to observational GMA

Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Method to Predict Cerebral Palsy from Spontaneous Movements in Infants at High Risk

Importance: Early identification of cerebral palsy (CP) is important for early intervention, yet expert-based assessments do not permit widespread use, and conventional machine learning alternatives lack validity. Objective: To develop and assess the external validity of a novel deep learning-based method to predict CP based on videos of infants' spontaneous movements at 9 to 18 weeks' corrected age.Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study of a deep learning-based method to predict CP at a corrected age of 12 to 89 months involved 557 infants with a high risk of perinatal brain injury who were enrolled in previous studies conducted at 13 hospitals in Belgium, India, Norway, and the US between September 10, 2001, and October 25, 2018. Analysis was performed between February 11, 2020, and September 23, 2021. Included infants had available video recorded during the fidgety movement period from 9 to 18 weeks' corrected age, available classifications of fidgety movements ascertained by the general movement assessment (GMA) tool, and available data on CP status at 12 months' corrected age or older. A total of 418 infants (75.0%) were randomly assigned to the model development (training and internal validation) sample, and 139 (25.0%) were randomly assigned to the external validation sample (1 test set). Exposure: Video recording of spontaneous movements.Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was prediction of CP. Deep learning-based prediction of CP was performed automatically from a single video. Secondary outcomes included prediction of associated functional level and CP subtype. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were assessed.Results: Among 557 infants (310 [55.7%] male), the median (IQR) corrected age was 12 (11-13) weeks at assessment, and 84 infants (15.1%) were diagnosed with CP at a mean (SD) age of 3.4 (1.7) years. Data on race and ethnicity were not reported because previous studies (from which the infant samples were derived) used different study protocols with inconsistent collection of these data. On external validation, the deep learning-based CP prediction method had sensitivity of 71.4% (95% CI, 47.8%-88.7%), specificity of 94.1% (95% CI, 88.2%-97.6%), positive predictive value of 68.2% (95% CI, 45.1%-86.1%), and negative predictive value of 94.9% (95% CI, 89.2%-98.1%). In comparison, the GMA tool had sensitivity of 70.0% (95% CI, 45.7%-88.1%), specificity of 88.7% (95% CI, 81.5%-93.8%), positive predictive value of 51.9% (95% CI, 32.0%-71.3%), and negative predictive value of 94.4% (95% CI, 88.3%-97.9%). The deep learning method achieved higher accuracy than the conventional machine learning method (90.6% [95% CI, 84.5%-94.9%] vs 72.7% [95% CI, 64.5%-79.9%]; P Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a deep learning-based method for predicting CP at 9 to 18 weeks' corrected age had predictive accuracy on external validation, which suggests possible avenues for using deep learning-based software to provide objective early detection of CP in clinical settings.</p

Development and Validation of a Deep Learning Method to Predict Cerebral Palsy From Spontaneous Movements in Infants at High Risk

Importance Early identification of cerebral palsy (CP) is important for early intervention, yet expert-based assessments do not permit widespread use, and conventional machine learning alternatives lack validity. Objective To develop and assess the external validity of a novel deep learning–based method to predict CP based on videos of infants’ spontaneous movements at 9 to 18 weeks’ corrected age. Design, Setting, and Participants This prognostic study of a deep learning–based method to predict CP at a corrected age of 12 to 89 months involved 557 infants with a high risk of perinatal brain injury who were enrolled in previous studies conducted at 13 hospitals in Belgium, India, Norway, and the US between September 10, 2001, and October 25, 2018. Analysis was performed between February 11, 2020, and September 23, 2021. Included infants had available video recorded during the fidgety movement period from 9 to 18 weeks’ corrected age, available classifications of fidgety movements ascertained by the general movement assessment (GMA) tool, and available data on CP status at 12 months’ corrected age or older. A total of 418 infants (75.0%) were randomly assigned to the model development (training and internal validation) sample, and 139 (25.0%) were randomly assigned to the external validation sample (1 test set). Exposure Video recording of spontaneous movements. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was prediction of CP. Deep learning–based prediction of CP was performed automatically from a single video. Secondary outcomes included prediction of associated functional level and CP subtype. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were assessed. Results Among 557 infants (310 [55.7%] male), the median (IQR) corrected age was 12 (11-13) weeks at assessment, and 84 infants (15.1%) were diagnosed with CP at a mean (SD) age of 3.4 (1.7) years. Data on race and ethnicity were not reported because previous studies (from which the infant samples were derived) used different study protocols with inconsistent collection of these data. On external validation, the deep learning–based CP prediction method had sensitivity of 71.4% (95% CI, 47.8%-88.7%), specificity of 94.1% (95% CI, 88.2%-97.6%), positive predictive value of 68.2% (95% CI, 45.1%-86.1%), and negative predictive value of 94.9% (95% CI, 89.2%-98.1%). In comparison, the GMA tool had sensitivity of 70.0% (95% CI, 45.7%-88.1%), specificity of 88.7% (95% CI, 81.5%-93.8%), positive predictive value of 51.9% (95% CI, 32.0%-71.3%), and negative predictive value of 94.4% (95% CI, 88.3%-97.9%). The deep learning method achieved higher accuracy than the conventional machine learning method (90.6% [95% CI, 84.5%-94.9%] vs 72.7% [95% CI, 64.5%-79.9%]; P < .001), but no significant improvement in accuracy was observed compared with the GMA tool (85.9%; 95% CI, 78.9%-91.3%; P = .11). The deep learning prediction model had higher sensitivity among infants with nonambulatory CP (100%; 95% CI, 63.1%-100%) vs ambulatory CP (58.3%; 95% CI, 27.7%-84.8%; P = .02) and spastic bilateral CP (92.3%; 95% CI, 64.0%-99.8%) vs spastic unilateral CP (42.9%; 95% CI, 9.9%-81.6%; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this prognostic study, a deep learning–based method for predicting CP at 9 to 18 weeks’ corrected age had predictive accuracy on external validation, which suggests possible avenues for using deep learning–based software to provide objective early detection of CP in clinical settings