Quantifying land surface temperature variability for two Sahelian mesoscale regions during the wet season

Land-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in the weather and climate of many semi-arid regions. These feedbacks are strongly controlled by how the surface responds to precipitation events, which regulate the return of heat and moisture to the atmosphere. Characteristics of the surface can result in both differing amplitudes and rates of warming following rain. We used spectral analysis to quantify these surface responses to rainfall events using land surface temperature (LST) derived from Earth Observations (EO). We analysed two mesoscale regions in the Sahel and identified distinct differences in the strength of the short-term (< 5–day) spectral variance, notably a shift towards lower frequency variability in forest pixels relative to non-forest areas, and an increase in amplitude with decreasing vegetation cover. Consistent with these spectral signatures, we found that areas of forest, and to a lesser extent grassland regions, warm up more slowly than sparsely vegetated or barren pixels. We applied the same spectral analysis method to simulated LST data from the the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. We found a reasonable level of agreement with the EO spectral analysis, for two contrasting land surface regions. However JULES shows a significant underestimate in the magnitude of the observed response to rain compared to EO. A sensitivity analysis of the JULES model highlights an unrealistically high level of soil water availability as a key deficiency, which dampens the models response to rainfall events

Does predictability of fluxes vary between FLUXNET sites?

The FLUXNET dataset contains eddy covariance measurements from across the globe and represents an invaluable estimate of the fluxes of energy, water, and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. While there is an expectation that the broad range of site characteristics in FLUXNET result in a diversity of flux behaviour, there has been little exploration of how predictable site behaviour is across the network. Here, 155 datasets with 30&thinsp;min temporal resolution from the Tier 1 of FLUXNET 2015 were analysed in a first attempt to assess individual site predictability. We defined site uniqueness as the disparity in performance between multiple empirical models trained globally and locally for each site and used this along with the mean performance as measures of predictability. We then tested how strongly uniqueness was determined by various site characteristics, including climatology, vegetation type, and data quality. The strongest determinant of predictability appeared to be that drier sites tended to be more unique. We found very few other clear predictors of uniqueness across different sites, in particular little evidence that flux behaviour was well discretised by vegetation type. Data length and quality also appeared to have little impact on uniqueness. While this result might relate to our definition of uniqueness, we argue that our approach provides a useful basis for site selection in LSM evaluation, and we invite critique and development of the methodology.</p

Thirty-eight years of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems

Climate change is projected to increase the imbalance between the supply (precipitation) and atmospheric demand for water (i.e., increased potential evapotranspiration), stressing plants in water-limited environments. Plants may be able to offset increasing aridity because rising CO2 increases water use efficiency. CO2 fertilization has also been cited as one of the drivers of the widespread "greening" phenomenon. However, attributing the size of this CO2 fertilization effect is complicated, due in part to a lack of long-term vegetation monitoring and interannual- to decadalscale climate variability. In this study we asked the question of how much CO2 has contributed towards greening. We focused our analysis on a broad aridity gradient spanning eastern Australia's woody ecosystems. Next we analyzed 38 years of satellite remote sensing estimates of vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) to examine the role of CO2 in ameliorating climate change impacts. Multiple statistical techniques were applied to separate the CO2-attributable effects on greening from the changes in water supply and atmospheric aridity. Widespread vegetation greening occurred despite a warming climate, increases in vapor pressure deficit, and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Between 1982-2019 we found that NDVI increased (median 11.3 %) across 90.5 % of the woody regions. After masking disturbance effects (e.g., fire), we statistically estimated an 11.7 % increase in NDVI attributable to CO2, broadly consistent with a hypothesized theoretical expectation of an 8.6 % increase in water use efficiency due to rising CO2. In contrast to reports of a weakening CO2 fertilization effect, we found no consistent temporal change in the CO2 effect. We conclude rising CO2 has mitigated the effects of increasing aridity, repeated record-breaking droughts, and record-breaking heat waves in eastern Australia. However, we were unable to determine whether trees or grasses were the primary beneficiary of the CO2-induced change in water use efficiency, which has implications for projecting future ecosystem resilience. A more complete understanding of how CO2-induced changes in water use efficiency affect trees and non-tree vegetation is needed

Advances in land surface modelling

Land surface models have an increasing scope. Initially designed to capture the feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere as part of weather and climate prediction, they are now used as a critical tool in the urgent need to inform policy about land-use and water-use management in a world that is changing physically and economically. This paper outlines the way that models have evolved through this change of purpose and what might the future hold. It highlights the importance of distinguishing between advances in the science within the modelling components, with the advances of how to represent their interaction. This latter aspect of modelling is often overlooked but will increasingly manifest as an issue as the complexity of the system, the time and space scales of the system being modelled increase. These increases are due to technology, data availability and the urgency and range of the problems being studied. © 2021, The Author(s)

Examining the evidence for decoupling between photosynthesis and transpiration during heat extremes

Recent experimental evidence suggests that during heat extremes, wooded ecosystems may decouple photosynthesis and transpiration, reducing photosynthesis to near zero but increasing transpiration into the boundary layer. This feedback may act to dampen, rather than amplify, heat extremes in wooded ecosystems. We examined eddy covariance databases (OzFlux and FLUXNET2015) to identify whether there was field-based evidence to support these experimental findings. We focused on two types of heat extremes: (i) the 3 days leading up to a temperature extreme, defined as including a daily maximum temperature &gt;37&thinsp;∘C (similar to the widely used TXx metric), and (ii) heatwaves, defined as 3 or more consecutive days above 35&thinsp;∘C. When focusing on (i), we found some evidence of reduced photosynthesis and sustained or increased latent heat fluxes at seven Australian evergreen wooded flux sites. However, when considering the role of vapour pressure deficit and focusing on (ii), we were unable to conclusively disentangle the decoupling between photosynthesis and latent heat flux from the effect of increasing the vapour pressure deficit. Outside of Australia, the Tier-1 FLUXNET2015 database provided limited scope to tackle this issue as it does not sample sufficient high temperature events with which to probe the physiological response of trees to extreme heat. Thus, further work is required to determine whether this photosynthetic decoupling occurs widely, ideally by matching experimental species with those found at eddy covariance tower sites. Such measurements would allow this decoupling mechanism to be probed experimentally and at the ecosystem scale. Transpiration during heatwaves remains a key issue to resolve, as no land surface model includes a decoupling mechanism, and any potential dampening of the land–atmosphere amplification is thus not included in climate model projections.</p

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment. We assessed model predictions using observations from a native Eucalyptus woodland that experienced repeated droughts and heatwaves between 2013 and 2020, whilst exposed to an elevated [CO2] treatment. Our combined approaches improved predictions of transpiration and enhanced the simulated magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect on gross primary productivity. The competing approaches also worked consistently along axes of change in soil moisture, leaf area, and [CO2]. Despite predictions of a significant percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity due to embolism (PLC) in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (99th percentile PLC > 45%), simulated hydraulic legacy effects were small and short-lived (2 months). Our analysis suggests that leaf shedding and/or suppressed foliage growth formed a strategy to mitigate drought risk. Accounting for foliage responses to water availability has the potential to improve model predictions of ecosystem resilience. © 2022 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.MEBS, MDK, and AJP acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). MEBS was also supported by the UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship Scheme. MDK and AJP acknowledge support from the ARC Discovery Grant (DP190101823) and MDK also acknowledges Eucalypt Australia and the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program, which separately supported the EucFACE infrastructure. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government, as part of the Nation-building Economic Stimulus Package, and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. BEM acknowledges support from the ARC Laureate Fellowship FL190100003. Finally, we thank the Editor, Dr Danielle Way, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Open access publishing facilitated by University of New South Wales, as part of the Wiley - University of New South Wales agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. All model, analysis code, and data files are freely available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6717290 (Sabot, 2022) and the code is also available from https://github.com/ManonSabot/Competing_Optimal_Adjustments. Previously published data sets used in this study can be accessed at: http://doi.org/10.4225/35/563159f223739 (Duursma et al., 2016). http://doi.org/10.4225/35/57ec5d4a2b78e (Ellsworth et al., 2017). http://doi.org/10.4225/35/55b6e313444ff (Gimeno et al., 2016). http://doi.org/10.4225/35/5ab9bd1e2f4fb (Gimeno et al., 2018). MEBS, MDK, and AJP acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). MEBS was also supported by the UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship Scheme. MDK and AJP acknowledge support from the ARC Discovery Grant (DP190101823) and MDK also acknowledges Eucalypt Australia and the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program, which separately supported the EucFACE infrastructure. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government, as part of the Nation‐building Economic Stimulus Package, and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. BEM acknowledges support from the ARC Laureate Fellowship FL190100003. Finally, we thank the Editor, Dr Danielle Way, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Open access publishing facilitated by University of New South Wales, as part of the Wiley ‐ University of New South Wales agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians

Incorporating non-stomatal limitation improves the performance of leaf and canopy models at high vapour pressure deficit

Vapour pressure deficit (D) is projected to increase in the future as temperature rises. In response to increased D, stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthesis (A) are reduced, which may result in significant reductions in terrestrial carbon, water and energy fluxes. It is thus important for gas exchange models to capture the observed responses of gs and A with increasing D. We tested a series of coupled A-gs models against leaf gas exchange measurements from the Cumberland Plain Woodland (Australia), where D regularly exceeds 2 kPa and can reach 8 kPa in summer. Two commonly used A-gs models were not able to capture the observed decrease in A and gs with increasing D at the leaf scale. To explain this decrease in A and gs, two alternative hypotheses were tested: hydraulic limitation (i.e., plants reduce gs and/or A due to insufficient water supply) and non-stomatal limitation (i.e., downregulation of photosynthetic capacity). We found that the model that incorporated a non-stomatal limitation captured the observations with high fidelity and required the fewest number of parameters. Whilst the model incorporating hydraulic limitation captured the observed A and gs, it did so via a physical mechanism that is incorrect. We then incorporated a non-stomatal limitation into the stand model, MAESPA, to examine its impact on canopy transpiration and gross primary production. Accounting for a non-stomatal limitation reduced the predicted transpiration by ~19%, improving the correspondence with sap flow measurements, and gross primary production by ~14%. Given the projected global increases in D associated with future warming, these findings suggest that models may need to incorporate non-stomatal limitation to accurately simulate A and gs in the future with high D. Further data on non-stomatal limitation at high D should be a priority, in order to determine the generality of our results and develop a widely applicable model. © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. was supported by a PhD scholarship from Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University. M.G.D.K. acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023), the ARC Discovery Grant (DP190101823) and support from the NSW Research Attraction and Acceleration Program. EucFACE was built as an initiative of the Australian Government as part of the Nation-building Economic Stimulus Package and is supported by the Australian Commonwealth in collaboration with Western Sydney University. It is also part of a Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Super-site facility

Towards species-level forecasts of drought-induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species-level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South-Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr−1). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within-species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO2 in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision-making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net-zero emission strategies