Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGThe assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982–2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1995–2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warmingXunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021-108Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDP/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50017/2020Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación y Xunta de Galicia | Ref. PRTR-C17·I1Ministerio de Ciencia e Investigación | Ref. TED2021-129524B-I0

As enerxías renovables

Esenciais. Brevarios de divulgación do saberAs enerxías renovables son enerxías primarias que se renovan de forma natural. Proveñen da enerxía que chega ao noso planeta de forma continua pola acción da radiación solar ou da atracción gravitatoria da Lúa, polo que son fontes de enerxía inesgotables e limpas. Son fundamentalmente: a enerxía solar, eólica, hidráulica, mariña (das ondas e da marea), da biomasa e xeotérmica. Estas fontes de enerxía son moi diversas e atópanse accesibles para ser explotadas en calquera parte do planeta. O desenvolvemento tecnolóxico fai que as enerxías renovables sexan cada vez máis competitivas permitindo aos países ser máis independentes dos combustibles fósiles

Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGRenewable energy plays a key role into achieving the international targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Considering that these forms of energy are dependent on climate conditions and that their variability occurs at different time scales, it is important to analyze the complementarity to ensure a stable power supply to the grid in the context of climate change. A multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models from the CMIP6 project was used to analyze the complementarity between wind and solar photovoltaic power in North America from 2025 to 2054 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. This complementarity was evaluated using two indices that account for the similarity between the two resources (Similarity index, Si) and the temporal complementarity (Concurrency index, Ci). The combination of the two resources reduced spatial heterogeneity in terms of annual mean power in North America. The highest values of Si were detected west of California and in the Caribbean Sea, and the lowest were found in Mexico. Regarding Ci, the highest values were detected in ocean areas north of 30°N. Both indices were divided into four categories to assess the most suitable areas for combining wind and solar photovoltaic power. Coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico and substantial areas in the Caribbean Sea are considered optimal in terms of complementarity. Inland, good complementarity was observed on the US-Canada border (e.g., the Great Lakes) and in northern areas such as Alaska or the Labrador Peninsula. The lowest values of complementarity were detected in Mexico.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. PRTR-C17.I1Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. IJC2020-043745-IMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. PID2020-113245RB-I00Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. TED2021-129479A-100Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDP/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50017/202

Examining the ability of CMIP6 models to reproduce the upwelling SST imprint in the Eastern boundary upwelling systems

Knowing future changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) is of vital importance since they can affect marine ecosystems, especially in areas of high productivity such as the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS). In this sense, it is key to have fine resolution models to study the SST patterns as close as possible to the coast where the upwelling influence is greater. Thus, the main objective of the present work is to assess the ability of 23 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in reproducing the upwelling SST imprint in the EBUS through a comparison with the Optimum Interpolation of Sea Surface Temperature (OISST ¼) database of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the common period of 1982–2014. The results have shown that most of the CMIP6 GCMs overestimate nearshore SST for all the EBUS with the exception of Canary. Overall, the models with better resolution showed lower Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Normalized Bias (NBias), although the ability of the models is dependent on the study area. Thus, the most suitable models for each EBUS are the CNRM-HR, GFDL-CM4, HadGEM-MM, CMCC-VHR4, and EC-Earth3P for Canary; CESM1-HR, CMCC-VHR4, ECMWF-HR, and HadGEM-HM for Humboldt; and HadGEM-HH and HadGEM-HM for California. In the case of Benguela, no model adequately reproduces the SST imprint under the conditions established in the present study.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021-108European Union | Ref. MAR-02.01.01-FEAMP-0022European Union | Ref. PRTR-C17.I1Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia | Ref. UIDP/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50017/2020Portugal 2020 | Ref. MAR-02.01.01-FEAMP-002

Combining offshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy to stabilize energy supply under climate change scenarios: A case study on the western Iberian Peninsula

La expansión de la energía renovable marina es una importante alternativa para la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Sin embargo, en Europa, la alta penetración de la energía eólica marina introduce intermitencia y variabilidad de energía en la red eléctrica existente. La energía solar fotovoltaica marina es otra alternativa tecnológica en consideración en los planes de descarbonización. Sin embargo, las futuras variaciones en el viento, la temperatura del aire o la radiación solar debido al cambio climático tendrán un gran impacto en los recursos de energía renovable. En este contexto, este estudio se centra en la evaluación de la energía marina en la costa de la Península Ibérica occidental, una región europea que abarca Portugal y la parte noroccidental de España. Utilizando una amplia fuente de datos de 35 simulaciones de un proyecto de investigación llamado CORDEX, este estudio investiga la complementariedad de las fuentes de energía eólica y solar marina con el objetivo de mejorar la estabilidad del suministro de energía de esta región hasta 2040. Aunque se ha demostrado que el recurso de energía eólica marina es mayor que el recurso fotovoltaico solar a escala anual, ambos recursos renovables mostraron una variabilidad significativa en energía a lo largo de la Península Ibérica occidental. Cuando se combinan ambas fuentes renovables, la estabilidad del recurso energético aumenta considerablemente a lo largo del año. El esquema propuesto de combinación de energía eólica y solar se evalúa mediante un método de clasificación de rendimiento llamado Delphi, teniendo en cuenta la estabilidad, el recurso, el riesgo y los factores económicos. El índice de clasificación total aumenta cuando la estabilidad del recurso se mejora mediante la consideración de la producción híbrida de energía eólica-fotovoltaica solar, especialmente a lo largo de las aguas cercanas a la costa.The expansion of marine renewable power is a major alternative for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. In Europe, however, the high penetration of offshore wind brings intermittency and power variability into the existing power grid. Offshore solar photovoltaic power is another technological alternative under consideration in the plans for decarbonization. However, future variations in wind, air temperature or solar radiation due to climate change will have a great impact on both renewable energy resources. In this context, this study focusses on the offshore energy assessment off the coast of Western Iberia, a European region encompassing Portugal and the Northwestern part of Spain. Making use of a vast source of data from 35 simulations of a research project called CORDEX, this study investigates the complementarity of offshore wind and solar energy sources with the aim of improving the energy supply stability of this region up to 2040. Although the offshore wind energy resource has proven to be higher than solar photovoltaic resource at annual scale, both renewable resources showed significant spatiotemporal energy variability throughout the western Iberian Peninsula. When both renewable resources are combined, the stability of the energy resource increased considerably throughout the year. The proposed wind and solar combination scheme is assessed by a performance classification method called Delphi, considering stability, resource, risk, and economic factors. The total index classification increases when resource stability is improved by considering hybrid offshore wind-photovoltaic solar energy production, especially along the nearshore waters.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad | Ref. FJCI-2017-32577Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2020-113245RB-I00Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDP/50017/2020Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/4

Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa

Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISUGThe present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a non-symmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions.Comisión Europea | Ref. INTERREG‐POCTEP 2014‐2020Comisión Europea | Ref. 0034‐RISC_ML_6_EXunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2017/6

Suitability of wave energy converters in northwestern Spain under the near future winter wave climate

Marine renewable energies can play a key role by reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and, therefore, mitigating climate change. Among them, it is expected that wave energy will experience rapid growth in the upcoming decades. Thus, it is important to know how wave climate will change and how suitable the wave energy converters (WECs) will be to the new wave conditions. This paper aims to evaluate the capability of four different WECs—a WaveRoller type device (WRTD), Atargis, AquaBuoy and RM5—to extract wave energy on the Northwest coast of Spain (NWCS). The analysis was performed using the high-resolution wave data obtained from the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model over the near future winters (2026–2045). The energy output (PE), the power load factor (ε), the normalized capture width (NCw) and the operational time (OT) were analyzed. According to these parameters, among the devices that work for intermediate-deep waters, Atargis would be the best option (PE=1400 ± 56 kW, ε =55.4 ± 2.2%, NCw=35.5 ± 4.1% and OT =84.5 ± 3.3%). The WRTD would also be a good option for shallow nearshore areas with PE=427 ± 248 kW, ε =12.8 ± 7.4%, NCw = 48.9 ± 9.6% and OT = 88.7 ± 18.9%. A combination of Atargis and WRTDs is proposed to make up the future wave energy farms on the NWCS.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. PID2020-113245RB-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. TED2021-129479A-100Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. IJC2020-043745-IAgencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PRE2021-097580Universidade de Vigo/CISU

Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?

Shellfisheries of the intertidal and shallow subtidal infaunal bivalves Ruditapes decussatus, Ruditapes philippinarum, Venerupis corrugata and Cerastoderma edule are of great socio-economic importance (in terms of landings) in Europe, specifically in the Galician Rías Baixas (NW Spain). However, ocean warming may threaten these fisheries by modifying the geographic distribution of the species and thus affecting productive areas. The present study analysed the impact of rising ocean temperature on the geographical distribution of the thermal comfort areas of these bivalves throughout the 21st century. The Delft3D model was used to downscale climate data from CORDEX and CMIP5 and was run for July and August in three future periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074 and 2075–2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The areas with optimal temperature conditions for shellfish harvesting located in the middle and outer parts of the rias may increase in the near future for R. decussatus, V. corrugata and C. edule and decrease in the far future for R. philippinarum. Moreover, shellfish beds located in the shallower areas of the inner parts of the Rías Baixas could be affected by increased water temperature, reducing the productive areas of the four species by the end of the century. The projected changes in thermal condition will probably lead to changes in shellfish harvesting modality (on foot or aboard vessels) with further socio-economic consequences.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B-2021-103Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/42Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. CTM2014-51935-RFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDP/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. UIDB/50017/2020Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. LA/P/0094/2020Financiado para publicación en acceso aberto: Universidade de Vigo/CISU

Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century

The Caribbean has suitable conditions for a significant wind energy development, which makes a good planning for the future renewable energy mix essential. The impact of climate change on Caribbean wind power has been analyzed by means of an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. The offshore wind energy resource was classified for the historical period and for the future considering wind energy factors, environmental risk factors and cost factors whose weights were estimated by a Delphi method. Future projections show a maximum annual wind increase, ∼0.4 ms −1 (8%), in most of the Caribbean, except in the Yucatán Basin. This increment occurs mainly during the wet season, ∼0.5 ms −1 (∼10%), associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which will strengthen the Caribbean low-level jet. Additionally, the moderate wind increase, ∼0.2 ms −1 (∼4%), projected during the dry season is restricted to the southeastern coast and it is associated with an increment in the land-ocean temperature difference (∼1 °C), which will intensify local easterly winds. The low-level jet region was classified as the richest wind energy resource in the Caribbean for the future with a larger extension compared to the historical period.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2017/64Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BPD/97320/2013Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BPD/118142/2016Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BPD/99707/201

Downscaling CMIP6 climate projections to classify the future offshore wind energy resource in the Spanish territorial waters

The Spanish government has established a Maritime Spatial Planning including areas for wind farms, with the aim of contributing up to 40% of European floating offshore wind power by 2030. Thus, it is crucial to assess the current and future offshore wind energy resource in these areas, and classify the near future resource by considering wind power density and other relevant factors like resource stability, environmental risks, and installation costs. To attain the necessary high spatial resolution, a dynamic downscaling of a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in Spanish territorial waters, including the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands, and Canary Islands. Future projections were considered under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios. According to the results, Spain’s offshore wind energy potential is projected to grow in the upcoming years, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding the Canary Islands. Wind resource classification in the potential offshore wind farm areas reveals noteworthy diversity, with ratings ranging from “fair” (3/7) to “outstanding” (6/7). The most promising areas for offshore wind farm development in the near future are located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands.Xunta de Galicia | Ref. ED431C 2021/44Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. TED2021-129479A-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. PID2021-128510OB-I00Agencia Estatal de Investigación | Ref. IJC2020-043745-