COVID-SGIS: A Smart Tool for Dynamic Monitoring and Temporal Forecasting of Covid-19

Background: The global burden of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The current spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is problematic causing a huge public health burden to its population and national health-care service. To evaluate strategies for alleviating such problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of cases and deaths in order to aid the stakeholders in the process of making decisions against the disease. We propose a novel system for real-time forecast of the cumulative cases of Covid-19 in Brazil. / Methods: We developed the novel COVID-SGIS application for the real-time surveillance, forecast and spatial visualization of Covid-19 for Brazil. This system captures routinely reported Covid-19 information from 27 federative units from the Brazil.io database. It utilizes all Covid-19 confirmed case data that have been notified through the National Notification System, from March to May 2020. Time series ARIMA models were integrated for the forecast of cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. These include 6-days forecasts as graphical outputs for each federative unit in Brazil, separately, with its corresponding 95% CI for statistical significance. In addition, a worst and best scenarios are presented. / Results: The following federative units (out of 27) were flagged by our ARIMA models showing statistically significant increasing temporal patterns of Covid-19 cases during the specified day-to-day period: Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Amapá, Rondônia, where their day-to-day forecasts were within the 95% CI limits. Equally, the same findings were observed for Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The overall percentage error between the forecasted values and the actual values varied between 2.56 and 6.50%. For the days when the forecasts fell outside the forecast interval, the percentage errors in relation to the worst case scenario were below 5%. / Conclusion: The proposed method for dynamic forecasting may be used to guide social policies and plan direct interventions in a cost-effective, concise, and robust manner. This novel tools can play an important role for guiding the course of action against the Covid-19 pandemic for Brazil and country neighbors in South America

Patients' perception regarding the influence of individual and social vulnerabilities on the adherence to tuberculosis treatment: a qualitative study

Background: Tuberculosis remains an important disease which mainly affects the majority of vulnerable individuals in society, who are subjected to poor living conditions and difficulties to access the services of public health. Under these circumstances, the present study aims to understand patients' perception in relation to the influence of individual and social vulnerabilities on the adherence to tuberculosis treatment. Methods: A qualitative descriptive cross sectional study was conducted in one large municipality at the state of Paraiba, Northeast of Brazil. The study subjects, who were residents of the study site, covered all tuberculosis cases diagnosed between March and June 2015. The sample was defined by the criteria of response saturation. All interviews were audio recorded, and data analysis was developed through the hermeneutic dialectic method and the theory of Generative Route Sense. The project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the University of Sao Paulo (USP). Results: A total of 13 individuals were interviewed and the responses were identified into two analytical categories: the difficulties they had and the enabling factors they could mention during their tuberculosis treatment. Patients brought up social exclusion as an obstacle to treatment adherence, which, along with stigmatization, weakened their link with family members and health professionals. Moreover, economic precariousness was a major hindrance to the maintenance of a proper diet and transportation access to health centers. However, social support and directly observed treatment helped to break down barriers of prejudice and to promote individual and family empowerment. Finally, patients also reported that their will to live and faith gave them the strength to continue with the treatment. Conclusions: According to patients in this study, social support and the strengthening of links with family members and health professionals may reduce social exclusion and other difficulties they face, thus encouraging them to the adhere to tuberculosis treatment.Univ Estadual Paraiba, Campina Grande, Paraiba, BrazilUniv Fed Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, RN, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Escola Enfermagem, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Enfermagem, Sao Paulo, BrazilFac Santa Maria, Cajazeiras, Paraiba, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Enfermagem, Sao Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Combinações entre cultivares, ambientes, preparo e cobertura do solo em características agronômicas de alface.

Objetivou-se identificar combinações entre cultivares, ambientes de cultivo e preparo e cobertura de solo capazes de melhorar o desempenho agronômico e aumentar a produtividade da cultura da alface em cultivo orgânico. A pesquisa foi conduzida na Universidade Federal do Acre, utilizando o delineamento experimental de blocos casualizados, com parcelas subdivididas para cada experimento (campo e casa de vegetação), com quatro repetições. Em cada experimento, três cultivares de alface (Simpson, Marisa e Vera), constituindo as sub-parcelas, foram sorteadas nas parcelas, representadas por quatro preparos e cobertura do solo (encanteiramento com cobertura de palha de arroz, polietileno prateado, solo descoberto e plantio direto). A produtividade comercial de alface foi de 12,3 t ha-1 em cultivo protegido e de 7,9 t ha-1 em campo. O cultivo protegido promoveu melhor desenvolvimento das plantas, caracterizado por maior massa da matéria fresca e seca da parte aérea, massa da matéria fresca comercial e melhor classificação comercial, além de promover bom desempenho agronômico e maior produtividade em qualquer um dos preparos de solo. As cultivares Simpson e Marisa apresentaram massa da matéria seca da parte aérea semelhante e superior à ‘Vera’, porém, o crescimento do caule da ‘Simpson’ foi elevado, caracterizando pendoamento precoce, fato que reduz sua qualidade comercial. As cultivares Marisa e Vera não alongaram o caule indicando serem tolerantes às condições ambientais de Rio Branco. A cobertura do solo com casca de arroz ou plástico prateado contribuiu para minimizar os efeitos climáticos prejudiciais ao cultivo da alface em campo. O plantio direto orgânico não diferiu do plantio em canteiro descoberto

Projected WIMP sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4×10-48 cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3×10-43 cm2 (7.1×10-42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020

Simulations of events for the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter search aims to achieve a sensitivity to the WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross-section down to (1–2)×10−12 pb at a WIMP mass of 40 GeV/c2. This paper describes the simulations framework that, along with radioactivity measurements, was used to support this projection, and also to provide mock data for validating reconstruction and analysis software. Of particular note are the event generators, which allow us to model the background radiation, and the detector response physics used in the production of raw signals, which can be converted into digitized waveforms similar to data from the operational detector. Inclusion of the detector response allows us to process simulated data using the same analysis routines as developed to process the experimental data

Projected sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment to the 0νββ decay of Xe 136

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will enable a neutrinoless double β decay search in parallel to the main science goal of discovering dark matter particle interactions. We report the expected LZ sensitivity to Xe136 neutrinoless double β decay, taking advantage of the significant (>600 kg) Xe136 mass contained within the active volume of LZ without isotopic enrichment. After 1000 live-days, the median exclusion sensitivity to the half-life of Xe136 is projected to be 1.06×1026 years (90% confidence level), similar to existing constraints. We also report the expected sensitivity of a possible subsequent dedicated exposure using 90% enrichment with Xe136 at 1.06×1027 years

Haplotypes of the bovine IgG2 heavy gamma chain in tick-resistant and tick-susceptible breeds of cattle

Bovines present contrasting, heritable phenotypes of infestations with the cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus. Tick salivary glands produce IgG-binding proteins (IGBPs) as a mechanism for escaping from host antibodies that these ectoparasites ingest during blood meals. Allotypes that occur in the constant region of IgG may differ in their capacity to bind with tick IGBPs; this may be reflected by the distribution of distinct allotypes according to phenotypes of tick infestations. In order to test this hypothesis, we investigated the frequency of haplotypes of bovine IgG2 among tick-resistant and tick-susceptible breeds of bovines. Sequencing of the gene coding for the heavy chain of IgG2 from 114 tick-resistant (Bos taurus indicus, Nelore breed) and tick-susceptible (B. t. taurus, Holstein breed) bovines revealed SNPs that generated 13 different haplotypes, of which 11 were novel and 5 were exclusive of Holstein and 3 of Nelore breeds. Alignment and modeling of coded haplotypes for hinge regions of the bovine IgG2 showed that they differ in the distribution of polar and hydrophobic amino acids and in shape according to the distribution of these amino acids. We also found that there was an association between genotypes of the constant region of the IgG2 heavy chain with phenotypes of tick infestations. These findings open the possibility of investigating if certain IgG allotypes hinder the function of tick IGBPs. If so, they may be markers for breeding for resistance against tick infestations