Estimating the small area effects of austerity measures in the UK

Governments across Europe are starting to implement a range of cost-cutting and income generating programmes in order to re-balance their fiscal budgets following substantial investments in stabilising domestic financial institutions in 2008 and 2009. One method of doing this has been to increase tax rates such as the increase in VAT in the UK from 17.5% to 20% from January 1st 2011. In this paper we explore the different spatial impact of this VAT rise on household expenditure on public and private transport and communication technology from 2006 to 2016. We do this by combining three elements: an agent-based dynamic population microsimulation model that produces projected snapshots of the UK population in 2006, 2011 and 2016; an expenditure system model based on the familiar Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System approach; and synthetic small area census tables produced by projecting historical UK census data. Taken together these elements provide a toolkit for assessing the potential spatial impact of rising taxes or prices (or both) and we use them to compare small area projections of household expenditure under two scenarios. The first is a 'no intervention' scenario where prices and income align to UK government inflation forecasts and the second is a one-off non-reversed 2.5% increase in VAT on goods and services rated at 17.5% on 1st January 2011. We present results for different areas (rural vs urban/deprived vs affluent) and for different income groups within them and discuss the potential implications for the telecommunications industry and for the usage of public and private transport

The effect of food prices and household income on the British diet

This paper investigates the effect of price variations on the diet composition in Britain. It describes the dynamics of food demand in relation to food prices over time using data from the British National Food Survey (NFS) covering the period 1975-2000. Demand elasticities with respect to price elasticities are estimated by solving a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model controlling also for total expenditure on food, region of residence, household size, age of head of household, whether women are working, number of time in which the household buys ready food, household type and income quartiles. Focusing on the consumption technology function, effects of food price variation on calories intake, energy from fats and energy from carbohydrate have been explored deriving nutrients elasticities with respect to variation of food prices

Reduction of gait abnormalities in type 2 diabetic patients due to physical activity: a quantitative evaluation based on statistical gait analysis

The aim of this study is the objective assessment of gait abnormalities in diabetic patients and the quantification of the benefits of physical activity in improving the gait quality. Patients were equipped with foot-switches and knee goniometers and were asked to walk at their natural pace for 2.5 minutes. A statistical gait analysis was performed extracting from hundreds of strides the ‘atypical' cycles, i.e. the cycles which do not show the usual sequence of gait phases (heel contact, flat foot contact, push off, swing), the duration of the heel contact phase and the knee kinematics in the sagittal plane. A sample population of 27 non-neuropathic type 2 diabetic patients was examined before and after attending a light-intensity physical activity program that lasted four months. A fuzzy classifier was used to assign a score to the gait abnormalities of each patient in baseline conditions and after the program completion. More than 50% of the subjects reduced significantly their gait abnormalities and, on the average, the most frequent improvements were the reduction of atypical cycles and heel contact duration. Furthermore we found that, in basal conditions, the left side is more affected by gait abnormalities than the right one (P < 0.003

The relationship between food consumption and socio-economic status: evidence among British youths

This paper investigates the relationship between nutrition and socio-economic status among British youths. It describes the dynamics of consumption over age and time using data from the British National Food Survey (NFS) covering the period 1975- 2000. Daily calories-age relationships for men and women are estimated by solving a non-linear least square model with a roughness penalty function approach. Focusing on young age groups, trends of consumption over the 25-year period of study and the cohorts effect have been explored across three classes of age. Finally, an exploration of specific trend variations in eating habits has been implemented controlling for income distribution

Locked Up Libraries: A Critique of Canadian Prison Library Policy

Access to library services in prison is a minimum human rights requirement. These services impact people both while they are incarcerated and as they reintegrate into the community. Since the 1980s, there have been recommendations to improve library services to people in Canadian federal prisons. Although some advancements have been made, recommendations for the improvement of library and educational services in Canadian prisons have been largely ignored by prison administrators and policy makers. Canadian prison libraries at both the federal and provincial-territorial level are still underfunded, understaffed, and sorely lacking in basic library materials, making it impossible for prison librarians to meet the minimum human rights requirements of the people they serve. This article makes recommendations for changes to existing Canadian prison library services and policies, with a focus on providing library services in correctional institutions which support the needs of the prison population. In addition, this article highlights the need and provides recommendations for public, academic, and special librarians to support prison librarians and the people they serve

A Multiscale Thermo-Fluid Computational Model for a Two-Phase Cooling System

In this paper, we describe a mathematical model and a numerical simulation method for the condenser component of a novel two-phase thermosyphon cooling system for power electronics applications. The condenser consists of a set of roll-bonded vertically mounted fins among which air flows by either natural or forced convection. In order to deepen the understanding of the mechanisms that determine the performance of the condenser and to facilitate the further optimization of its industrial design, a multiscale approach is developed to reduce as much as possible the complexity of the simulation code while maintaining reasonable predictive accuracy. To this end, heat diffusion in the fins and its convective transport in air are modeled as 2D processes while the flow of the two-phase coolant within the fins is modeled as a 1D network of pipes. For the numerical solution of the resulting equations, a Dual Mixed-Finite Volume scheme with Exponential Fitting stabilization is used for 2D heat diffusion and convection while a Primal Mixed Finite Element discretization method with upwind stabilization is used for the 1D coolant flow. The mathematical model and the numerical method are validated through extensive simulations of realistic device structures which prove to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data

Credit crunched: Single parents, universal credit and the struggle to make work pay

This paper examines the likely impact of Universal Credit on the incomes and work incentives of single parent families. Using the UK module of EUROMOD (version F6.20), we also simulate how single parents' household income, and their work incentives, would change following adjustments to the universal credit structure. We examine four main alternative scenarios: 1) reducing the overall universal credit taper rate from 65% to 55%; 2) Increasing the basic (standard) allowances in universal credit for single parents; 3) Increasing the earnings disregard in universal credit for single parents and 4) Increasing the income tax threshold for the basic tax rate. We also examine the impact on single parents of an increase in the minimum wage. Finally, we examine the impact on the Exchequer of a five percentage point increase in the single parent employment rate, in terms of benefits saved and taxes paid

Sperm counts in enzymatically liquefied cervical mucus: quantitative validation using donor cervical mucus

The post-coital test evaluates the penetration of spermatozoa into cervical mucus; it relies on subjective meaurements and therefore lacks precision. Enzymatic liquefaction of cervical mucus allows sperm concentration to be measured in post-coital test samples, but the reliability of such measurements is not known. Donor cervical mucus was used as a model to test the accuracy and sensitivity of sperm quantification in liquefied cervical mucus. Donor cervical mucus was dissolved by enzymatic treatments in the presence of known numbers of spermatozoa and the recovery of sperm cells was assessed after liquefaction of the samples. Enzymatic treatment of cervical mucus with a combination of bromelin and glycosidases resulted in reliable and fast liquefaction of the samples. The accuracy of sperm concentration measurements was 89±10% (mean±SD, n=50), and the sensitivity limits were 1×106 and 0.2×106 spermatozoa/ml for quantitative concentration measurement and qualitative sperm detection respectively. This study demonstrates that liquefaction of cervical mucus by combined protease and glycosidases allows accurate and sensitive determination of sperm concentration in the sample. Therefore we believe that valuable data can be obtained for sperm concentration and total sperm counts in post-coital tests, that should help to improve the reliability of the post-coital tes

Research note: The effect of different indexation scenarios on child poverty in the UK

Using the tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD and Family Resources Survey, we investigate what would have happened to child poverty in the UK in the periods 2010/11-2015/16 and 2015/16-2020/21 under a range of different indexation scenarios of children's benefits. We find that between 2010/11 and 2015/16 both the relative and absolute child poverty rates would have been lower if children's benefits were uprated by RPI or if the government had introduced the Child Tax Credit uprating package it promised in 2010. Uprating children's benefits up to 2020/21 as announced by the government in the Autumn Financial Statement in 2014 would result in real benefit cuts and increase in child poverty. However, triple lock indexation of children's benefits would sustain their real value and would reduce child poverty rates substantially