Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Microsimulation modelling estimates based on observed screen and clinical data

There is a delicate balance between the favourable and unfavourable side-effects of screening in general. Overdiagnosis, the detection of breast cancers by screening that would otherwise never have been clinically diagnosed but are now consequently treated, is such an unfavourable side effect. To correctly model the natural history of breast cancer, one has to estimate mean durations of the different pre-clinical phases, transition probabilities to clinical cancer stages, and sensitivity of the applied test based on observed screen and clinical data. The Dutch data clearly show an increase in screen-detected cases in the 50 to 74 year old age group since the introduction of screening, and a decline in incidence around age 80 years. We had estimated that 3% of total incidence would otherwise not have been diagnosed clinically. This magnitude is no reason not to offer screening for women aged 50 to 74 years. The increases in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) are primarily due to mammography screening, but DCIS still remains a relatively small proportion of the total breast cancer problem

Mammographic screening and mammographic patterns

Mammography is an effective screening modality for the early detection of breast cancer. The reduction in breast cancer mortality is greater for women aged over 50 at screening than for women aged under 50. Mammography can also contribute to an understanding of the biology of breast cancer. Screening trials provide good evidence for the dedifferentiation of a cancer as it develops over time, and the age dependency of this dedifferentiation explains much of the age difference in the effectiveness of screening. Mammographic density is an important predictor of future breast cancer risk, and has potential as an early endpoint in breast cancer prevention trials. Mammographic density is also an important determinant of mammographic screening sensitivity

Integrating evolution into ecological modelling: accommodating phenotypic changes in agent based models.

PMCID: PMC3733718This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a 'phenotypic gambit' approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual's contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent's phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype

Cross-sectional analysis of a large cohort with X-linked Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMTX1)

OBJECTIVE: To extend the phenotypic description of Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CMTX1) and to draw new genotype-phenotype relationships. METHODS: Mutations in GJB1 cause the main X-linked form of CMTX (CMTX1). We report cross-sectional data from 160 patients (from 120 different families, with 89 different mutations) seen at the Inherited Neuropathies Consortium centers. RESULTS: We evaluated 87 males who had a mean age of 41 years (range 10-78 years) and 73 females who had a mean age of 46 years (range 15-84 years). Sensory-motor polyneuropathy affects both sexes, more severely in males than in females, and there was a strong correlation between age and disease burden in males but not in females. Compared with females, males had more severe reduction in motor and sensory neurophysiology parameters. In contrast to females, the radial nerve sensory response in older males tended to be more severely affected compared with younger males. Median and ulnar nerve motor amplitudes were also more severely affected in older males, whereas ulnar nerve motor potentials tended to be more affected in older females. Conversely, there were no statistical differences between the sexes in other features of the disease, such as problems with balance and hand dexterity. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of a phenotypic correlation with specific GJB1 mutations, sex-specific distinctions and clinically relevant attributes need to be incorporated into the measurements for clinical trials in people with CMTX1. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01193075

Mammography screening: views from women and primary care physicians in Crete

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women and a leading cause of death from cancer in women in Europe. Although breast cancer incidence is on the rise worldwide, breast cancer mortality over the past 25 years has been stable or decreasing in some countries and a fall in breast cancer mortality rates in most European countries in the 1990s was reported by several studies, in contrast, in Greece have not reported these favourable trends. In Greece, the age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for breast cancer per 100.000 in 2006 was 81,8 and 21,7 and although it is lower than most other countries in Europe, the fall in breast cancer mortality that observed has not been as great as in other European countries. There is no national strategy for screening in this country. This study reports on the use of mammography among middleaged women in rural Crete and investigates barriers to mammography screening encountered by women and their primary care physicians. Methods: Design: Semi-structured individual interviews. Setting and participants: Thirty women between 45–65 years of age, with a mean age of 54,6 years, and standard deviation 6,8 from rural areas of Crete and 28 qualified primary care physicians, with a mean age of 44,7 years and standard deviation 7,0 serving this rural population. Main outcome measure: Qualitative thematic analysis. Results: Most women identified several reasons for not using mammography. These included poor knowledge of the benefits and indications for mammography screening, fear of pain during the procedure, fear of a serious diagnosis, embarrassment, stress while anticipating the results, cost and lack of physician recommendation. Physicians identified difficulties in scheduling an appointment as one reason women did not use mammography and both women and physicians identified distance from the screening site, transportation problems and the absence of symptoms as reasons for non-use. Conclusion: Women are inhibited from participating in mammography screening in rural Crete. The provision of more accessible screening services may improve this. However physician recommendation is important in overcoming women's inhibitions. Primary care physicians serving rural areas need to be aware of barriers preventing women from attending mammography screening and provide women with information and advice in a sensitive way so women can make informed decisions regarding breast caner screening

A case–control study of the impact of the East Anglian breast screening programme on breast cancer mortality

Although breast cancer screening has been shown to work in randomised trials, there is a need to evaluate service screening programmes to ensure that they are delivering the benefit indicated by the trials. We carried out a case–control study to investigate the effect of mammography service screening, in the NHS breast screening programme, on breast cancer mortality in the East Anglian region of the UK. Cases were deaths from breast cancer in women diagnosed between the ages of 50 and 70 years, following the instigation of the East Anglia Breast Screening Programme in 1989. The controls were women (two per case) who had not died of breast cancer, from the same area, matched by date of birth to the cases. Each control was known to be alive at the time of death of her matched case. All women were known to the breast screening programme and were invited, at least once, to be screened. There were 284 cases and 568 controls. The odds ratio (OR) for risk of death from breast cancer in women who attended at least one routine screen compared to those who did not attend was 0.35 (CI: 0.24, 0.50). Adjusting for self-selection bias gave an estimate of the breast cancer mortality reduction associated with invitation to screening of 35% (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.88). The effect of actually being screened was a 48% breast cancer mortality reduction (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.84). The results suggest that the National Breast Screening Programme in East Anglia is achieving a reduction in breast cancer deaths, which is at least consistent with the results from the randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening

Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: predicted mortality based on surrogate outcome measures

A trial in the UK to study the effect on mortality from breast cancer of invitation for annual mammography from the age of 40–41, has randomised a total of 160 921 women in the ratio 1 : 2 to the intervention and control arms. All breast cancers diagnosed in the two arms have been identified, and the histology reviewed. This paper presents the results of an interim analysis using surrogate outcome measures to compare predicted breast cancer mortality in the two arms based on 1287 cases diagnosed to 31.12.1999. Due to earlier diagnosis, there is currently an 8% excess of invasive breast cancers in the intervention arm. The ratio of predicted deaths at 10 years in the intervention arm relative to the control arm, adjusted for this excess diagnosis, ranges from 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–1.01) to 0.90 (95% CI 0.80–1.01). Screening from age 40 may result in a lower reduction in breast cancer mortality than that observed in other trials including women below age 50. This analysis based on surrogate outcome measures suggests that a reduction in breast cancer mortality may be observed in this trial. However, a number of assumptions have been necessary and firm conclusions must await the analysis of observed mortality from breast cancer

How does gender influence the recognition of cardiovascular risk and adherence to self-care recommendations? : a study in polish primary care

Background: Studies have shown a correlation between gender and an ability to change lifestyle to reduce the risk of disease. However, the results of these studies are ambiguous, especially where a healthy lifestyle is concerned. Additionally, health behaviors are strongly modified by culture and the environment. Psychological factors also substantially affect engagement with disease-related lifestyle interventions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences between men and women in the frequency of health care behavior for the purpose of reducing cardiovascular risk (CVR), as well as cognitive appraisal of this type of risk. We also aimed to identify the psychological predictors of engaging in recommended behavior for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease after providing information about this risk in men and women. Methods: A total of 134 consecutive eligible patients in a family practice entered a longitudinal study. At initial consultation, the individual’s CVR and associated health burden was examined, and preventive measures were recommended by the physician. Self-care behavior, cognitive appraisal of risk, and coping styles were then assessed using psychological questionnaires. Six months after the initial data collection, the frequency of subjects’ self-care behavior was examined. Results: We found an increase in health care behavior after providing information regarding the rate of CVR in both sexes; this increase was greater for women than for men. Women followed self-care guidelines more often than men, particularly for preventive measures and dietary advice. Women were more inclined to recognize their CVR as a challenge. Coping style, cognitive appraisal, age, level of health behaviors at baseline and CVR values accounted for 48% of the variance in adherence to self-care guidelines in women and it was 52% in men. In women, total risk of CVD values were most important, while in men, cognitive appraisal of harm/loss was most important. Conclusions: Different predictors of acquisition of health behavior are encountered in men and women. Our results suggest that gender-adjusted motivation models influencing the recognition process need to be considered to optimize compliance in patients with CVR

The writing on the wall: the concealed communities of the East Yorkshire horselads

This paper examines the graffiti found within late nineteenth and early-twentieth century farm buildings in the Wolds of East Yorkshire. It suggests that the graffiti were created by a group of young men at the bottom of the social hierarchy - the horselads – and was one of the ways in which they constructed a distinctive sense of communal identity, at a particular stage in their lives. Whilst it tells us much about changing agricultural regimes and social structures, it also informs us about experiences and attitudes often hidden from official histories and biographies. In this way, the graffiti are argued to inform our understanding, not only of a concealed community, but also about their hidden histor