Market Risk Dynamics and Competitiveness After the Euro: Evidence from EMU Members

In this paper we propose an empirical model that considers theoretical facts on the relationship between real exchange rates and the net exports of the economy to supplement the interaction of a number of financial and economic factors with the stock market. We discuss the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on market risk in terms of Value at Risk (VaR). Our empirical findings show that common currency introduction produced increments in VaR whereas European stock returns are more sensitive to changes in competitiveness regarding the EMU rather than national exports. Finally, we show that the synchronisation of variation in competitiveness through the introduction of a single currency has made these changes more decisive in explaining financial market fluctuations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64351/1/wp916.pd

MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members

In this paper we propose an empirical model that considers theoretical facts on the relationship between real exchange rates and the net exports of the economy to supplement the interaction of a number of financial and economic factors with the stock market. We discuss the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on market risk in terms of Value at Risk (VaR). Our empirical findings show that common currency introduction produced increments in VaR whereas European stock returns are more sensitive to changes in competitiveness regarding the EMU rather than national exports. Finally, we show that the synchronisation of variation in competitiveness through the introduction of a single currency has made these changes more decisive in explaining financial market fluctuations.Euro, Competitiveness, Market Risk, Net Export, Value-at-Risk, Volatility

"Assessing Institutional Efficiency, Growth and Integration"

This paper presents a new empirical methodology for evaluation of the institutional system's development in transition economies and the impact it has on economic performance. We have developed and used a methodology of estimation of an operational indicator of institutional system dynamics to observe the "institutional reforms-economic growth" interdependence in transition economies. The empirical work reveals a certain dependence between institutional development and growth. An application of the approach to the problems of international economic integration of transition economies in the context of EU accession allows us to assess the role of democratization and the rule of law in particular.

Democracy, Finance and Development

The paper tests the hypothesis of a positive impact of democratization on growth and economic development in the sense of capabilities and improvements in well-being. We employ a probit model to estimate the probabilistic indicator for democracy for a large sample of countries. Panel regressions are applied to explain the impact on growth of political institutions (democracy), economic institutions and efficiency of financial management, along with more "traditional" factors. The empirical findings support the hypothesis of decisive role of democratic political and efficient economic institutions in stimulating economic growth. The main results also highlight the importance of effective allocation of financial resources. In addition to the growth regression results, it is argued, consistently with the capabilities approach to development by Sen, that many of the explanatory variables in the growth regression are positively related to development as capabilities enhancement. This is particularly true for democratic freedoms. Finally the problem of 'optimal' institutional development is discussed within the context of resource allocation, migration flows and political decisions.

"Democracy, Finance and Development "

The paper tests the hypothesis of a positive impact of democratization on growth and economic development in the sense of capabilities and improvements in well-being. We employ a probit model to estimate the probabilistic indicator for democracy for a large sample of countries. Panel regressions are applied to explain the impact on growth of political institutions (democracy), economic institutions and efficiency of financial management, along with more "traditional" factors. The empirical findings support the hypothesis of decisive role of democratic political and efficient economic institutions in stimulating economic growth. The main results also highlight the importance of effective allocation of financial resources. In addition to the growth regression results, it is argued, consistently with the capabilities approach to development by Sen, that many of the explanatory variables in the growth regression are positively related to development as capabilities enhancement. This is particularly true for democratic freedoms. Finally the problem of 'optimal' institutional development is discussed within the context of resource allocation, migration flows and political decisions.

Lessons From Integration Within “NAFTA”. A Prospect For Europe

Texto dispoñible en galego, español e inglésEste artigo avalía os problemas xurdidos no desenvolvemento do sistema institucional das economías en transición e estuda o seu impacto sobre a economía. Os autores desenvolven unha metodoloxía para estimar un indicador operacional da dinámica do sistema institucional que busca a interdependencia entre “as reformas institucionais e o crecemento económico” nas economías de transición. Os resultados poñen de manifesto unha certa dependencia entre o desenvolvemento institucional e o crecemento. Tamén se discuten os problemas da integración económica internacional de economías en transición no contexto de acceso á Unión Europea. Posteriormente, analízase o caso de México como referencia para unha integración acertada de economías cun diferente nivel de desenvolvementoEste artículo evalúa los problemas surgidos en el desarrollo del sistema institucional de las economías en transición y estudia su impacto sobre la economía. Los autores desarrollan una metodología para estimar un indicador operacional de la dinámica del sistema institucional que busca la interdependencia entre “las reformas institucionales y el crecimiento económico” en las economías de transición. Los resultados ponen de manifiesto una cierta dependencia entre el desarrollo institucional y el crecimiento. También se discuten los problemas de la integración económica internacional de economías en transición en el contexto de acceso a la Unión Europea. Posteriormente, se analiza el caso de México como referencia para una integración acertada de economías con un diferente nivel de desarrolloThis paper is devoted to the problems of evaluation of institutional system’s development in transition economies and studying the impact it has on economic performance. The au-thors developed and used a methodology of estimating an operational indicator of institutional system dynamics for observing the “institutional reforms-economic growth” interdependence in transition economies. The observations revealed certain dependence between institutional development and growth. In the remaining part of the paper the problems of international economic integration of transition economies were discussed in context of EU accession. The case of Mexico is used as a benchmark for successful integration of economies with different level of developmentS

An Empirical Assessment of Economic and Political Challenges of European Union Accession

The collapse of the Soviet Union was an exceptional experiment in the economic history of the world, which made the post-socialist countries the subject of various economic studies. Different researchers and organizations tend to monitor the progress of economic and institutional reforms through inventing different indexes (indicators), apparently trying to understand how to detect the end of the transition process. The European Union, opening its door to accession candidates and starting negotiations with a number of eastern European and Baltic states, was the first to rely on those assessments of progress in reforms for making decisions on the readiness of the countries in terms of economic and institutional development to become a member of the European family. This study tries to link the actual assessments of reforms (start of negotiations) and the available set of indicators to construct an empirical model. We apply statistical techniques of limited dependent variable models to reveal the most important criteria followed by the 'EU admission committee' and capture them in limited dependent variable models, which are applied to evaluate the readiness of a number of other post-socialist countries to start hypothetical negotiations with the EU. Based on available empirical results the factors captured in the model include the share of public expenditure in GDP, GDP per capita, private sector share of GDP, share of trade with EU in external turnover, democratization and inflation (macroeconomic stability). Our empirical assessments show that there are several transition economies (Albania, Armenia and Georgia), which despite not having candidate status, offer better general standing in terms of 'accession criteria' than the current candidates. This fact may suggest to policy-makers (other geopolitical conditions being equal) to consider these countries for future EU enlargement waves. Copyright (c) 2010 The Author(s). JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies (c) 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Lecciones de integración en el contexto del "NAFTA": una perspectiva para la Unión Europea

Resumen: Este artículo evalúa los problemas surgidos en el desarrollo del sistema institucional de las economías en transición y estudia su impacto sobre la economía. Los autores desarrollan una metodología para estimar un indicador operacional de la dinámica del sistema institucional que busca la interdependencia entre ¿las reformas institucionales y el crecimiento económico¿ en las economías de transición. Los resultados ponen de manifiesto una cierta dependencia entre el desarrollo institucional y el crecimiento. También se discuten los problemas de la integración económica internacional de economías en transición en el contexto de acceso a la Unión Europea. Posteriormente, se analiza el caso de México como referencia para una integración acertada de economías con un diferente nivel de desarrollo

Assesing Institutional Efficiency, Growth and Integration

This paper presents a new empirical methodology for evaluation of the institutional system\u27s development in transition economies and the impact it has on economic performance. We have developed and used a methodology of estimation of an operational indicator of institutional system dynamics to observe the "institutional reforms-economic growth" interdependence in transition economies. The empirical work reveals a certain dependence between institutional development and growth. An application of the approach to the problems of international economic integration of transition economies in the context of EU accession allows us to assess the role of democratization and the rule of law in particular.本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこ