Combination of geodetic observations and models for glacial isostatic adjustment fields in Fennoscandia

We demonstrate a new technique for using geodetic data to update a priori predictions for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in the Fennoscandia region. Global Positioning System (GPS), tide gauge, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity rates are assimilated into our model. The technique allows us to investigate the individual contributions from these data sets to the output GIA model in a self-consistent manner. Another benefit of the technique is that we are able to estimate uncertainties for the output model. These are reduced with each data set assimilated. Any uncertainties in the GPS reference frame are absorbed by reference frame adjustments that are estimated as part of the assimilation. Our updated model shows a spatial pattern and magnitude of peak uplift that is consistent with previous models, but our location of peak uplift is slightly to the east of many of these. We also simultaneously estimate a spatially averaged rate of local sea level rise. This regional rate (similar to 1.5 mm/yr) is consistent for all solutions, regardless of which data sets are assimilated or the magnitude of a priori GPS reference frame constraints. However, this is only the case if a uniform regional gravity rate, probably representing errors in, or unmodeled contributions to, the low-degree harmonic terms from GRACE, is also estimated for the assimilated GRACE data. Our estimated sea level rate is consistent with estimates obtained using a more traditional approach of direct "correction" using collocated GPS and tide gauge site

Role of home visiting in improving parenting and health in families at risk of abuse and neglect : results of a multicentre randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation

Objectives – To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an intensive home visiting programme in improving outcomes for vulnerable families. Design – Multicentre randomised controlled trial in which eligible women were allocated to receive home visiting (n=67) or standard services (n=64). Incremental cost analysis. Setting – 40 GP practices across two counties in the UK Participants – 131 vulnerable pregnant women. Intervention: Selected health visitors were trained in the Family Partnership Model to provide a weekly home visiting service from 6-months antenatally to 12 months postnatally. Main outcome measures – mother-child interaction, maternal psychological health attitudes and behaviour, infant functioning and development, and risk of neglect or abuse. Results – At 12-months differences favouring the home visited group were observed on an independent assessment of maternal sensitivity (p<0.04) and infant cooperativeness (p<0.02). No differences were identified on any other measures. There was a non-significant increase in the likelihood of intervention group infants being the subject of child protection proceedings, or being removed from the home, and one death in the control group. The mean incremental cost per infant of the home visiting intervention was £3,246 (bootstrapped 95% confidence interval for the difference: £1,645 - £4,803). Conclusion – This intervention may have the potential to improve parenting and increase the identification of infants at risk of abuse and neglect in vulnerable families. Further investigation is needed together with long term follow up to assess possible sleeper effects

Characterization of site-specific GPS errors using a short-baseline network of braced monuments at Yucca Mountain, southern Nevada

We use a short-baseline network of braced monuments to investigate site-specific GPS effects. The network has baseline lengths of ∼10, 100, and 1000 m. Baseline time series have root mean square (RMS) residuals, about a model for the seasonal cycle, of 0.05–0.24 mm for the horizontal components and 0.20–0.72 mm for the radial. Seasonal cycles occur, with amplitudes of 0.04–0.60 mm, even for the horizontal components and even for the shortest baselines. For many time series these lag seasonal cycles in local temperature measurements by 23–43 days. This could suggest that they are related to bedrock thermal expansion. Both shorter-period signals and seasonal cycles for shorter baselines to REP2, the one short-braced monument in our network, are correlated with temperature, with no lag time. Differences between REP2 and the other stations, which are deep-braced, should reflect processes occurring in the upper few meters of the ground. These correlations may be related to thermal expansion of these upper ground layers, and/or thermal expansion of the monuments themselves. Even over these short distances we see a systematic increase in RMS values with increasing baseline length. This, and the low RMS levels, suggests that site-specific effects are unlikely to be the limiting factor in the use of similar GPS sites for geophysical investigations

RNA Sequencing Reveals Novel Transcripts from Sympathetic Stellate Ganglia During Cardiac Sympathetic Hyperactivity.

Cardiovascular disease is the most prevalent age-related illness worldwide, causing approximately 15 million deaths every year. Hypertension is central in determining cardiovascular risk and is a strong predictive indicator of morbidity and mortality; however, there remains an unmet clinical need for disease-modifying and prophylactic interventions. Enhanced sympathetic activity is a well-established contributor to the pathophysiology of hypertension, however the cellular and molecular changes that increase sympathetic neurotransmission are not known. The aim of this study was to identify key changes in the transcriptome in normotensive and spontaneously hypertensive rats. We validated 15 of our top-scoring genes using qRT-PCR, and network and enrichment analyses suggest that glutamatergic signalling plays a key role in modulating Ca2+ balance within these ganglia. Additionally, phosphodiesterase activity was found to be altered in stellates obtained from the hypertensive rat, suggesting that impaired cyclic nucleotide signalling may contribute to disturbed Ca2+ homeostasis and sympathetic hyperactivity in hypertension. We have also confirmed the presence of these transcripts in human donor stellate samples, suggesting that key genes coupled to neurotransmission are conserved. The data described here may provide novel targets for future interventions aimed at treating sympathetic hyperactivity associated with cardiovascular disease and other dysautonomias

Modelling nuanced interventions for neglected tropical diseases

The majority of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) involve broad recommendations. There is some variation in these guidelines according to factors such as the co-endemicity of other diseases or failure to hit targets, but largely the same methods are used across a diverse range of cultures and climates. As the majority of NTDs have life-cycles that involve free-living stages or intermediary hosts, environmental conditions and external factors have the potential to either benefit or undermine the efforts of interventions. Through models we can explore the effect the varying biological parameters and simulate the outcomes of different types of interventions. This thesis aims to investigate a few of the current knowledge gaps by developing novel models of these processes for two specific diseases: Ascaris lumbricoides, a soil-transmitted helminth infection, and lymphatic filariasis (LF), a long-lived worm transmitted by mosquitoes. Extending established models from the literature, the work presented attempts to better describe some of the biological processes influencing transmission and the impact this could have on control and elimination strategies. A seasonal model of Ascaris infection is used to quantify the impact of fluctuations in external larval stage development on mass drug administration success, finding that the impact of seasonal variance is highly dependent on local weather profiles. Models of LF, considering both stochastic elimination and the vector dynamics, demonstrate the importance of solid experimental evidence for parameterising models and highlight why adult-acting vector control measures are potentially more effective than larval-based methods. Additionally, the vector model for LF is then used to recommend a novel method for deriving human prevalence estimates through vector sampling, including confidence interval and sample size calculations. This work has demonstrated new methods for modelling helminth infections in humans and drawn some important conclusions that could impact future studies and public health strategies for NTDs. By challenging modelling assumptions and realising what we don’t know, this thesis has lead to a deeper understanding of the processes involved and highlighted where further research is required

Stochastic filtering for determining gravity variations for decade-long time series of GRACE gravity

We present a new stochastic filter technique for statistically rigorous separation of gravity signals and correlated “stripe” noises in a series of monthly gravitational spherical harmonic coefficients (SHCs) produced by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Unlike the standard destriping process that removes the stripe contamination empirically, the stochastic approach simultaneously estimates gravity signals and correlated noises relying on covariance information that reflects both the spatial spectral features and temporal correlations among them. A major benefit of the technique is that by estimating the stripe noise in a Bayesian framework, we are able to propagate statistically rigorous covariances for the destriped GRACE SHCs, i.e. incorporating the impact of the destriping on the SHC uncertainties. The Bayesian approach yields a natural resolution for the gravity signal that reflects the correlated stripe noise, and thus achieve a kind of spatial smoothing in and of itself. No spatial Gaussian smoothing is formally required although it might be useful for some circumstances. Using the stochastic filter, we process a decade-length series of GRACE monthly gravity solutions, and compare the results with GRACE Tellus data products that are processed using the “standard” destriping procedure. The results show that the stochastic filter is able to remove the correlated stripe noise to a remarkable degree even without an explicit smoothing step. The estimates from the stochastic filter for each destriped GRACE field are suitable for Bayesian integration of GRACE with other geodetic measurements and models, and the statistically rigorous estimation of the time-varying rates and seasonal cycles in GRACE time series

Computational NMR investigation of mixed-metal (Al,Sc)-MIL-53 and its phase transitions

Funding: The authors would like to thank the ERC (Advanced Grant 787073 ADOR) and the Allan Handsel Postgraduate Research Scholarship for Chemistry for studentship funding for ZHD and EALB, respectively. We also acknowledge support from the Collaborative Computational Project on NMR Crystallography (CCP-NC) funded by EPSRC (EP/T026642/1) and from the UK Materials and Molecular Modelling Hub (Young), which is partially funded by EPSRC (EP/T022213/1, EP/W032260/1 and EP/P020194/1) for which access was obtained via the UKCP consortium and funded by EPSRC (EP/P022561/1).Compositionally complex metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have properties that depend on local structure that is often difficult to characterise. In this paper a density functional theory (DFT) computational study of mixed-metal (Al,Sc)-MIL-53, a flexible MOF with several different forms, was used to calculate the relative energetics of these forms and to predict NMR parameters that can be used to evaluate whether solid-state NMR spectroscopy can be used to differentiate, identify and characterise the forms adopted by mixed-metal MOFs of different composition. The NMR parameters can also be correlated with structural features in the different forms, giving fundamental insight into the nature and origin of the interactions that affect nuclear spins. Given the complexity of advanced NMR experiments required, and the potential need for expensive and difficult isotopic enrichment, the computational work is invaluable in predicting which experiments and approaches are likely to give the most information on the disorder, local structure and pore forms of these mixed-metal MOFs.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Physical processes determine spatial structure in water temperature and residence time on a wide reef flat

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 125(12), (2020): e2020JC016543, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016543.On coral reefs, flow determines residence time of water influencing physical and chemical environments and creating observable microclimates within the reef structure. Understanding the physical mechanisms driving environmental variability on shallow reefs, which distinguishes them from the open ocean, is important for understanding what contributes to thermal resilience of coral communities and predicting their response to future anomalies. In June 2014, a field experiment conducted at Dongsha Atoll in the northern South China Sea investigated the physical forces that drive flow over a broad shallow reef flat. Instrumentation included current and pressure sensors and a distributed temperature sensing system, which resolved spatially and temporally continuous temperature measurements over a 3‐km cross‐reef section from the lagoon to reef crest. Spectral analysis shows that while diurnal variability was significant across the reef flat—a result expected from daily solar heating—temperature also varied at higher frequencies near the reef crest. These spatially variable temperature regimes, or thermal microclimates, are influenced by circulation on the wide reef flat, with spatially and temporally variable contributions from tides, wind, and waves. Through particle tracking simulations, we find the residence time of water is shorter near the reef crest (3.6 h) than near the lagoon (8.6 h). Tidal variability in flow direction on the reef flat leads to patterns in residence time that are different than what would be predicted from unidirectional flow. Circulation on the reef also determines the source (originating from offshore vs. the lagoon) of the water present on the reef flat.We thank S. Tyler, and J. Selker from the Center for Transformative Environmental Monitoring Programs (CTEMPs), funded by the National Science Foundation (EAR awards 1440596 and 1440506), for timely and effective provision of experimental design support, logistical support and equipment for the project. Support for S. Lentz is from NSF Grant No. OCE‐1558343. Support for A. Cohen from NSF Grant No. 1220529, by the Academia Sinica (Taiwan) through a thematic project grant to G. Wong and A. Cohen. Support for E. Reid and K. Davis is from National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant No. OCE‐1753317, and support to E. Reid from the Environmental Engineering Henry Samueli Endowed Fellowship and the UCI Oceans Graduate Fellowship.2021-05-2

An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections

Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that consider vector-control-induced changes in the age-structure of the vector population and the resulting impact on transmission. We analytically derive the steady-state solution of a novel age-structured deterministic compartmental model describing the mosquito feeding cycle, with mosquito age represented discretely by parity—the number of cycles (or successful bloodmeals) completed. Our key model output comprises an explicit, analytically tractable solution that can be used to directly quantify key transmission statistics, such as the effective reproductive ratio under control, Rc, and investigate the age-structured impact of vector control. Application of this model reinforces current knowledge that adult-acting interventions, such as indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), can be highly effective at reducing transmission, due to the dual effects of repelling and killing mosquitoes. We also demonstrate how larval measures can be implemented in addition to adult-acting measures to reduce Rc and mitigate the impact of waning insecticidal efficacy, as well as how mid-ranges of LLIN coverage are likely to experience the largest effect of reduced net integrity on transmission. We conclude that whilst well-maintained adult-acting vector control measures are substantially more effective than larval-based interventions, incorporating larval control in existing LLIN or IRS programmes could substantially reduce transmission and help mitigate any waning effects of adult-acting measures

Geographical variation in Hepatitis C-related severe liver disease and patient risk factors: A multicentre cross-sectional study

No abstract available