"How to project customer retention" revisited: the role of duration dependence

Cohort-level retention rates typically increase over time, and the beta-geometric (BG) distribution has proven to be a robust model for capturing and projecting these patterns into the future. According to this model, the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates is purely due to cross-sectional heterogeneity; an individual customer’s propensity to churn does not change over time. In this paper we present the beta-discrete-Weibull (BdW) distribution as an extension to the BG model, one that allows individual-level churn probabilities to increase or decrease over time. In addition to capturing the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates, this new model can also accommodate situations in which there is an initial dip in retention rates before they increase (i.e., a U-shaped cohort-level retention curve). A key finding is that even when aggregate retention rates are monotonically increasing, the individual-level churn probabilities are unlikely to be declining over time, as conventional wisdom would suggest. We carefully explore these connections between heterogeneity, duration dependence, and the shape of the retention curve, and draw some managerially relevant conclusions, e.g., that accounting for cross-sectional heterogeneity is more important than accounting for any individual-level dynamics in churn propensities

Excitation and decay of projectile-like fragments formed in dissipative peripheral collisions at intermediate energies

Projectile-like fragments (PLF:15<=Z<=46) formed in peripheral and mid-peripheral collisions of 114Cd projectiles with 92Mo nuclei at E/A=50 MeV have been detected at very forward angles, 2.1 deg.<=theta_lab<=4.2 deg. Calorimetric analysis of the charged particles observed in coincidence with the PLF reveals that the excitation of the primary PLF is strongly related to its velocity damping. Furthermore, for a given V_PLF*, its excitation is not related to its size, Z_PLF*. For the largest velocity damping, the excitation energy attained is large, approximately commensurate with a system at the limiting temperatureComment: 5 pages, 6 figure

Plasma therapy in atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome: lessons from a family with a factor H mutation

Whilst randomised control trials are undoubtedly the best way to demonstrate whether plasma exchange or infusion alone is the best first-line treatment for patients with atypical haemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS), individual case reports can provide valuable information. To that effect, we have had the unique opportunity to follow over a 10-year period three sisters with aHUS associated with a factor H mutation (CFH). Two of the sisters are monozygotic twins. A similar natural evolution and response to treatment would be expected for the three patients, as they all presented with the same at-risk polymorphisms for CFH and CD46 and no identifiable mutation in either CD46 or CFI. Our report of different modalities of treatment of the initial episode and of three transplantations and relapses in the transplant in two of them, strongly suggest that intensive plasma exchange, both acutely and prophylactically, can maintain the long-term function of both native kidneys and allografts. In our experience, the success of plasma therapy is dependent on the use of plasma exchange as opposed to plasma infusion alone, the prolongation of daily plasma exchange after normalisation of haematological parameters followed by prophylactic plasma exchange, the use of prophylactic plasma exchange prior to transplantation and the use of prophylactic plasma exchange at least once a week posttransplant with immediate intensification of treatment if there are any signs of recurrence

Neutron to proton ratios of quasiprojectile and midrapidity emission in the 64^{64}Zn + 64^{64}Zn reaction at 45 MeV/nucleon

Simultaneous measurement of both neutrons and charged particles emitted in the reaction $^{64}$Zn + $^{64}$Zn at 45 MeV/nucleon allows comparison of the neutron to proton ratio at midrapidity with that at projectile rapidity. The evolution of N/Z in both rapidity regimes with increasing centrality is examined. For the completely re-constructed midrapidity material one finds that the neutron-to-proton ratio is above that of the overall $^{64}$Zn + $^{64}$Zn system. In contrast, the re-constructed ratio for the quasiprojectile is below that of the overall system. This difference provides the most complete evidence to date of neutron enrichment of midrapidity nuclear matter at the expense of the quasiprojectile

Expanding a Supercomputer Facility Using Modular Data Center Technology

With the expansion of high-end computing resources needed to support NASA's increasing demands for physics-based simulations, the facility housing Pleiades-the agency's largest supercomputer-recently reached its power and cooling capacity. In response, the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at Ames Research Center undertook a prototype project that resulted in a new facility based on modular data center technology. The facility, a ~1000 square-foot module on a concrete pad with room for 16-18 compute racks, was completed in fall 2016 and an SGI computer system, named Electra, was deployed there in early 2017. Cooling is performed via an evaporative system built into the module, and preliminary experience shows a Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) of ~1.03. Electra achieved over a petaflop on the LINPACK benchmark, sufficient to rank number 96 on the November 2016 TOP500 list. The system consists of 1,152 InfiniBand-connected Intel Xeon Broadwell-based nodes. Its users access their files on a facility wide file system shared by all compute assets via Mellanox MetroX InfiniBand extenders, which connect the Electra fabric to Lustre routers InfiniBand fabric over fiber-optic links about 300 meters long. The prototype has exceeded expectations and is serving as a blueprint for future expansions.

Fragment Production in Non-central Collisions of Intermediate Energy Heavy Ions

The defining characteristics of fragment emission resulting from the non-central collision of 114Cd ions with 92Mo target nuclei at E/A = 50 MeV are presented. Charge correlations and average relative velocities for mid-velocity fragment emission exhibit significant differences when compared to standard statistical decay. These differences associated with similar velocity dissipation are indicative of the influence of the entrance channel dynamics on the fragment production process

Fragment Isospin as a Probe of Heavy-Ion Collisions

Isotope ratios of fragments produced at mid-rapidity in peripheral and central collisions of 114Cd ions with 92Mo and 98Mo target nuclei at E/A = 50 MeV are compared. Neutron-rich isotopes are preferentially produced in central collisions as compared to peripheral collisions. The influence of the size (A), density, N/Z, E*/A, and Eflow/A of the emitting source on the measured isotope ratios was explored by comparison with a statistical model (SMM). The mid-rapidity region associated with peripheral collisions does not appear to be neutron-enriched relative to central collisions.Comment: 12 pages including figure

Interplay of initial deformation and Coulomb proximity on nuclear decay

Alpha particles emitted from an excited projectile-like fragment (PLF*) formed in a peripheral collision of two intermediate-energy heavy ions exhibit a strong preference for emission towards the target-like fragment (TLF). The interplay of the initial deformation of the PLF* caused by the reaction, Coulomb proximity, and the rotation of the PLF* results in the observed anisotropic angular distribution. Changes in the shape of the angular distribution with excitation energy are interpreted as being the result of forming more elongated initial geometries in the more peripheral collisions.Comment: 4 figure