Stock Market Volatility And Presidential Election Uncertainty: Evidence From Political Futures Markets

Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential source of uncertainty is the outcome of an upcoming national election. This paper uses a GARCH model to estimate the effect of uncertainty surrounding U.S. Presidential elections on the volatility of U.S. stock market returns from 1992-2012. Uncertainty in these elections is measured using asset prices from the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), an on-line futures market based on real-world events, including U.S. elections. The empirical results show that the conditional variance in S&P 500 returns increases when IEM presidential election futures market asset prices indicate greater uncertainty about the outcome of an upcoming election

Using Television Commercials As Video Illustrations: Examples From A Money And Banking Economics Class

Video clips are an excellent way to enhance lecture material. Television commercials are a source of video examples that should not be overlooked and they are readily available on the internet. They are familiar, short, self-contained, constantly being created, and often funny.   This paper describes several examples of television commercials that can be used to illustrate concepts taught in Money and Banking and Microeconomics courses. Sources of television commercials available on the internet are also presented

How should we measure psychological resilience in sport performers?

Psychological resilience is important in sport because athletes must constantly withstand a wide range of pressures to attain and sustain high performance. To advance psychologists’ understanding of this area, there exists an urgent need to develop a sport-specific measure of resilience. The purpose of this paper is to review psychometric issues in resilience research and to discuss the implications for sport psychology. Drawing on the wider general psychology literature to inform the discussion, the narrative is divided into three main sections relating to resilience and its assessment: adversity, positive adaptation, and protective factors. The first section reviews the different ways that adversity has been measured and considers the potential problems of using items with varying degrees of controllability and risk. The second section discusses the different approaches to assessing positive adaptation and examines the issue of circularity pervasive in resilience research. The final section explores the various issues related to the assessment of protective factors drawing directly from current measures of resilience in other psychology sub-disciplines. The commentary concludes with key recommendations for sport psychology researchers seeking to develop a measure of psychological resilience in athletes

Becoming a Performance Analyst : Autoethnographic Reflections on Agency, and Facilitated Transformational Growth

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Reflective Practice, on 3 September 2014, available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14623943.2014.900014.This paper features an autoethnographic approach in presenting and reflecting upon the story of one higher education student’s rapid vocational and academic transformation. Initially an inconspicuous undergraduate student, Andrew experienced an accelerated development that catapulted him to working in elite sport performance analysis (PA) environments, within a year. PA is a sub-discipline of sports coaching that involves using the latest technological advances to influence sporting performance, through the objective analysis of performance data. This autoethnographic piece is partly Andrew’s personal reflection upon that journey towards his newfound profession, which initially grew out of his experience of a generic sports degree at a university. Through stepping out of his comfort zone, and analysing sports previously unknown to him, extraordinary progress was made, and various vocational and academic opportunities arose. The initial catalyst for this developmental journey was facilitated by coaching lecturer David, who reflects upon how Andrew’s story links to his own educational philosophies. Andrew and David explore what these stories might mean to them personally, including potential links to the metaphor of learning as becoming, and notions around the concepts of learner agency, and educational facilitation. The paper ends by exploring the theoretical frameworks that guided this paper’s structure and focusPeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Novel role for the innate immune receptor toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) in the regulation of the wnt signaling pathway and photoreceptor apoptosis

Recent evidence has implicated innate immunity in regulating neuronal survival in the brain during stroke and other neurodegenerations. Photoreceptors are specialized light-detecting neurons in the retina that are essential for vision. In this study, we investigated the role of the innate immunity receptor TLR4 in photoreceptors. TLR4 activation by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) significantly reduced the survival of cultured mouse photoreceptors exposed to oxidative stress. With respect to mechanism, TLR4 suppressed Wnt signaling, decreased phosphorylation and activation of the Wnt receptor LRP6, and blocked the protective effect of the Wnt3a ligand. Paradoxically, TLR4 activation prior to oxidative injury protected photoreceptors, in a phenomenon known as preconditioning. Expression of TNFα and its receptors TNFR1 and TNFR2 decreased during preconditioning, and preconditioning was mimicked by TNFα antagonists, but was independent of Wnt signaling. Therefore, TLR4 is a novel regulator of photoreceptor survival that acts through the Wnt and TNFα pathways. © 2012 Yi et al

Nanomaterials for the cleaning and pH adjustment of vegetable tanned leather

Leather artifacts in historical collections and archives are often contaminated by physical changes such as soiling, which alter their appearance and readability, and by chemical changes which occur on ageing and give rise to excessive proportion of acids that promote hydrolysis of collagen, eventually leading to gelatinization and loss of mechanical properties. However, both cleaning and pH adjustment of vegetable tanned leather pose a great challenge for conservators, owing to the sensitivity of these materials to the action of solvents, especially water-based formulations and alkaline chemicals. In this study the cleaning of historical leather samples was optimized by confining an oil-in-water (o/w) nanostructured fluid in a highly retentive chemical hydrogel, which allows the controlled release of the cleaning fluid on sensitive surfaces. The chemical gel exhibits optimal viscoelasticity, which facilitates its removal after the application without leaving residues on the object. Nanoparticles of calcium hydroxide and lactate, dispersed in 2-propanol, were used to adjust the pH up to the natural value of leather, preventing too high alkalinity which causes swelling of fibers and denaturation of the collagen. The treated samples were characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE SEM), controlled environment dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA-RH), and infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR). The analytical assessment validated the use of tools derived from colloid and materials science for the preservation of collagen-based artifacts

Nutrient and microbial water quality of the upper Ganga river, India: identification of pollution sources

The Ganga River is facing mounting environmental pressures due to rapidly increasing human population, urbanisation, industrialisation and agricultural intensification, resulting in worsening water quality, ecological status and impacts on human health. A combined inorganic chemical, algal and bacterial survey (using flow cytometry and 16S rRNA gene sequencing) along the upper and middle Ganga (from the Himalayan foothills to Kanpur) was conducted under pre-monsoon conditions. The upper Ganga had total phosphorus (TP) and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations of less than 100 μg l−1 and 1.0 mg l−1, but water quality declined at Kannauj (TP = 420 μg l−1) due to major nutrient pollution inputs from human-impacted tributaries (principally the Ramganga and Kali Rivers). The phosphorus and nitrogen loads in these two tributaries and the Yamuna were dominated by soluble reactive phosphorus and ammonium, with high bacterial loads and large numbers of taxa indicative of pathogen and faecal organisms, strongly suggesting sewage pollution sources. The high nutrient concentrations, low flows, warm water and high solar radiation resulted in major algal blooms in the Kali and Ramganga, which greatly impacted the Ganga. Microbial communities were dominated by members of the Phylum Proteobacteria, Bacteriodetes and Cyanobacteria, with communities showing a clear upstream to downstream transition in community composition. To improve the water quality of the middle Ganga, and decrease ecological and human health risks, future mitigation must reduce urban wastewater inputs in the urbanised tributaries of the Ramganga, Kali and Yamuna Rivers