IrrMapper: A Machine Learning Approach for High Resolution Mapping of Irrigated Agriculture Across the Western U.S.

High frequency and spatially explicit irrigated land maps are important for understanding the patterns and impacts of consumptive water use by agriculture. We built annual, 30 m resolution irrigation maps using Google Earth Engine for the years 1986–2018 for 11 western states within the conterminous U.S. Our map classifies lands into four classes: irrigated agriculture, dryland agriculture, uncultivated land, and wetlands. We built an extensive geospatial database of land cover from each class, including over 50,000 human-verified irrigated fields, 38,000 dryland fields, and over 500,000 km2 of uncultivated lands. We used 60,000 point samples from 28 years to extract Landsat satellite imagery, as well as climate, meteorology, and terrain data to train a Random Forest classifier. Using a spatially independent validation dataset of 40,000 points, we found our classifier has an overall binary classification (irrigated vs. unirrigated) accuracy of 97.8%, and a four-class overall accuracy of 90.8%. We compared our results to Census of Agriculture irrigation estimates over the seven years of available data and found good overall agreement between the 2832 county-level estimates (r2 = 0.90), and high agreement when estimates are aggregated to the state level (r2 = 0.94). We analyzed trends over the 33-year study period, finding an increase of 15% (15,000 km2) in irrigated area in our study region. We found notable decreases in irrigated area in developing urban areas and in the southern Central Valley of California and increases in the plains of eastern Colorado, the Columbia River Basin, the Snake River Plain, and northern California

Negative differential mobility of weakly driven particles in models of glass formers

We study the response of probe particles to weak constant driving in kinetically constrained models of glassy systems, and show that the probe's response can be non-monotonic and give rise to negative differential mobility: increasing the applied force can reduce the probe's drift velocity in the force direction. Oth er significant non-linear effects are also demonstrated, such as the enhancement with increasing force of the probe's fluctuations away from the average path, a phenomenon known in other contexts as giant diffusivity. We show that these res ults can be explained analytically by a continuous-time random walk approximatio n where there is decoupling between persistence and exchange times for local dis placements of the probe. This decoupling is due to dynamic heterogeneity in the glassy system, which also leads to bimodal distributions of probe particle disp lacements. We discuss the relevance of our results to experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 5 fig

Prenatal Stress due to a Natural Disaster Predicts Adiposity in Childhood: The Iowa Flood Study

Prenatal stress can affect lifelong physical growth, including increased obesity risk. However, human studies remain limited. Natural disasters provide models of independent stressors unrelated to confounding maternal characteristics. We assessed degree of objective hardship and subjective distress in women pregnant during severe flooding. At ages 2.5 and 4 years we assessed body mass index (BMI), subscapular plus triceps skinfolds (SS + TR, an index of total adiposity), and SS: TR ratio (an index of central adiposity) in their children (n=106). Hierarchical regressions controlled first for several potential confounds. Controlling for these, flood exposure during early gestation predicted greater BMI increase from age 2.5 to 4, as well as total adiposity at 2.5. Greater maternal hardship and distress due to the floods, as well as other nonflood life events during pregnancy, independently predicted greater increase in total adiposity between 2.5 and 4 years. These results support the hypothesis that prenatal stress increases adiposity beginning in childhood and suggest that early gestation is a sensitive period. Results further highlight the additive effects of maternal objective and subjective stress, life events, and depression, emphasizing the importance of continued studies on multiple, detailed measures of maternal mental health and experience in pregnancy and child growth

Genotype data not consistent with clonal transmission of sea turtle fibropapillomatosis or goldfish schwannoma.

Recent discoveries of transmissible cancers in multiple bivalve species suggest that direct transmission of cancer cells within species may be more common than previously thought, particularly in aquatic environments. Fibropapillomatosis occurs with high prevalence in green sea turtles ( Chelonia mydas) and the geographic range of disease has increased since fibropapillomatosis was first reported in this species. Widespread incidence of schwannomas, benign tumours of Schwann cell origin, reported in aquarium-bred goldfish (Carassius auratus), suggest an infectious aetiology. We investigated the hypothesis that cancers in these species arise by clonal transmission of cancer cells. Through analysis of polymorphic microsatellite alleles, we demonstrate concordance of host and tumour genotypes in diseased animals. These results imply that the tumours examined arose from independent oncogenic transformation of host tissue and were not clonally transmitted. Further, failure to experimentally transmit goldfish schwannoma via water exposure or inoculation suggest that this disease is unlikely to have an infectious aetiology

Word-List Intrusion Errors Predict Progression to Mild Cognitive Impairment

OBJECTIVE: Preclinical Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) defined by a positive AD biomarker in the presence of normal cognition is presumed to precede mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Subtle cognitive deficits and cognitive inefficiencies in preclinical AD may be detected through process and error scores on neuropsychological tests in those at risk for progression to MCI. METHOD: Cognitively normal participants (n = 525) from the Alzheimer\u27s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were followed for up to 5 years and classified as either stable normal (n = 305) or progressed to MCI (n = 220). Cox regressions were used to determine whether baseline process scores on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT; intrusion errors, learning slope, proactive interference, retroactive interference) predicted progression to MCI and a Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) score of 1 after considering demographic characteristics, apolipoprotein E ε4 status, cerebrospinal fluid AD biomarkers, ischemia risk, mood, functional difficulty, and standard neuropsychological total test scores for the model. RESULTS: Baseline AVLT intrusion errors predicted progression to MCI (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.07, p = .008) and improved model fit after the other valuable predictors were already in the model, χ2(df = 1) = 6.330, p = .012. AVLT intrusion errors also predicted progression to CDR = 1 (hazard ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.18, p = .016) and again improved model fit, χ2(df = 1) = 4.682, p = .030. CONCLUSIONS: Intrusion errors on the AVLT contribute unique value for predicting progression from normal cognition to MCI and normal cognition to mild dementia (CDR = 1). Intrusion errors appear to reflect subtle change and inefficiencies in cognition that precede impairment detected by neuropsychological total scores

Optical and ultraviolet spectroscopic analysis of SN 2011fe at late times

We present optical spectra of the nearby Type Ia supernova SN 2011fe at 100, 205, 311, 349, and 578 days post-maximum light, as well as an ultraviolet spectrum obtained with Hubble Space Telescope at 360 days post-maximum light. We compare these observations with synthetic spectra produced with the radiative transfer code PHOENIX. The day +100 spectrum can be well fit with models which neglect collisional and radiative data for forbidden lines. Curiously, including this data and recomputing the fit yields a quite similar spectrum, but with different combinations of lines forming some of the stronger features. At day +205 and later epochs, forbidden lines dominate much of the optical spectrum formation; however, our results indicate that recombination, not collisional excitation, is the most influential physical process driving spectrum formation at these late times. Consequently, our synthetic optical and UV spectra at all epochs presented here are formed almost exclusively through recombination-driven fluorescence. Furthermore, our models suggest that the ultraviolet spectrum even as late as day +360 is optically thick and consists of permitted lines from several iron-peak species. These results indicate that the transition to the "nebular" phase in Type Ia supernovae is complex and highly wavelength-dependent.Comment: 22 pages, 21 figuress, 1 table, submitted to MNRA

Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Murray et al. have both produced sets of estimates for worldwide HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality. Understanding differences in these estimates can strengthen the interpretation of each. METHODS: We describe differences in the two sets of estimates. Where possible, we have drawn on additional published data to which estimates can be compared. FINDINGS: UNAIDS estimates that there were 6 million more people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 2013 (35 million) compared with the Murray et al. estimates (29 million). Murray et al. estimate that new infections and AIDS deaths have declined more gradually than does UNAIDS. Just under one third of the difference in PLHIV is in Africa, where Murray et al. have relied more on estimates of adult mortality trends than on data on survival times. Another third of the difference is in North America, Europe, Central Asia and Australasia. Here Murray et al. estimates of new infections are substantially lower than the number of new HIV/AIDS diagnoses reported by countries, whereas published UNAIDS estimate tend to be greater. The remaining differences are in Latin America and Asia where the data upon which the UNAIDS methods currently rely are more sparse, whereas the mortality data leveraged by Murray et al. may be stronger. In this region, however, anomalies appear to exist between the both sets of estimates and other data. INTERPRETATION: Both estimates indicate that approximately 30 million PLHIV and that antiretroviral therapy has driven large reductions in mortality. Both estimates are useful but show instructive discrepancies with additional data sources. We find little evidence to suggest that either set of estimates can be considered systematically more accurate. Further work should seek to build estimates on as wide a base of data as possible

Integration of an Earth-Based Science Team During Human Exploration of Mars

NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) is an underwater spaceflight analog that allows a true mission-like operational environment and uses buoyancy effects and added weight to simulate different gravity levels. A mission was undertaken in 2016, NEEMO 21, at the Aquarius undersea research habitat. During the mission, the effects of varied oper-ations concepts with representative communication latencies as-sociated with Mars missions were studied. Six subjects were weighed out to simulate partial gravity and evaluated different operations concepts for integration and management of a simulated Earth-based science team (ST) who provided input and direction during exploration activities. Exploration traverses were planned in advance based on precursor data collected. Subjects completed science-related tasks including presampling surveys and marine-science-based sampling during saturation dives up to 4 hours in duration that simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) on Mars. A communication latency of 15 minutes in each direction between space and ground was simulated throughout the EVAs. Objective data included task completion times, total EVA time, crew idle time, translation time, ST assimilation time (defined as time available for the science team to discuss, to review and act upon data/imagery after they have been collected and transmitted to the ground). Subjective data included acceptability, simulation quality, capability assessment ratings, and comments. In addition, comments from both the crew and the ST were captured during the post-mission debrief. Here, we focus on the acceptability of the operations concepts studied and the capabilities most enhancing or enabling in the operations concept. The importance and challenges of designing EVA time-lines to account for the length of the task, level of interaction with the ground that is required/desired, and communication latency, are discussed

Contaminated Turmeric Is a Potential Source of Lead Exposure for Children in Rural Bangladesh

Background. During the conduct of a cohort study intended to study the associations between mixed metal exposures and child health outcomes, we found that 78% of 309 children aged 20–40 months evaluated in the Munshiganj District of Bangladesh had blood lead concentrations ≥5 µg/dL and 27% had concentrations ≥10 µg/dL. Hypothesis. Environmental sources such as spices (e.g., turmeric, which has already faced recalls in Bangladesh due to high lead levels) may be a potential route of lead exposure. Methods. We conducted visits to the homes of 28 children randomly selected from among high and low blood lead concentration groups. During the visits, we administered a structured questionnaire and obtained soil, dust, rice, and spice samples. We obtained water samples from community water sources, as well as environmental samples from neighborhood businesses. Results. Lead concentrations in many turmeric samples were elevated, with lead concentrations as high as 483 ppm. Analyses showed high bioaccessibility of lead. Conclusions. Contamination of turmeric powder is a potentially important source of lead exposure in this population

Type Ia Supernova Distances at z > 1.5 from the Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Cycle Treasury Programs: The Early Expansion Rate

We present an analysis of 15 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at redshift z > 1 (9 at 1.5 < z < 2.3) recently discovered in the CANDELS and CLASH Multi-Cycle Treasury programs using WFC3 on the Hubble Space Telescope. We combine these SNe Ia with a new compilation of 1050 SNe Ia, jointly calibrated and corrected for simulated survey biases to produce accurate distance measurements. We present unbiased constraints on the expansion rate at six redshifts in the range 0.07 < z < 1.5 based only on this combined SN Ia sample. The added leverage of our new sample at z > 1.5 leads to a factor of ~3 improvement in the determination of the expansion rate at z = 1.5, reducing its uncertainty to ~20%, a measurement of H(z=1.5)/H0=2.67 (+0.83,-0.52). We then demonstrate that these six measurements alone provide a nearly identical characterization of dark energy as the full SN sample, making them an efficient compression of the SN Ia data. The new sample of SNe Ia at z > 1 usefully distinguishes between alternative cosmological models and unmodeled evolution of the SN Ia distance indicators, placing empirical limits on the latter. Finally, employing a realistic simulation of a potential WFIRST SN survey observing strategy, we forecast optimistic future constraints on the expansion rate from SNe Ia.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables; submitted to Ap