Does Voting Technology Affect Election Outcomes? Touch-screen Voting and the 2004 Presidential Election

Supporters of touch-screen voting claim it is a highly reliable voting technology, while a growing number of critics argue that paperless electronic voting systems are vulnerable to fraud. In this paper we use county-level data on voting technologies in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections to test whether voting technology affects electoral outcomes. We first show that there is a positive correlation between use of touch-screen voting and the level of electoral support for George Bush. This is true in models that compare the 2000-2004 changes in vote shares between adopting and non-adopting counties within a state, after controlling for income, demographic composition, and other factors. Although small, the effect could have been large enough to influence the final results in some closely contested states. While on the surface this pattern would appear to be consistent with allegations of voting irregularities, a closer examination suggests this interpretation is incorrect. If irregularities did take place, they would be most likely in counties that could potentially affect statewide election totals, or in counties where election officials had incentives to affect the results. Contrary to this prediction, we find no evidence that touch-screen voting had a larger effect in swing states, or in states with a Republican Secretary of State. Touch-screen voting could also indirectly affect vote shares by influencing the relative turnout of different groups. We find that the adoption of touch-screen voting has a negative effect on estimated turnout rates, controlling for state effects and a variety of county-level controls. This effect is larger in counties with a higher fraction of Hispanic residents (who tend to favor Democrats) but not in counties with more African Americans (who are overwhelmingly Democrat voters). Models for the adoption of touch-screen voting suggest it was more likely to be used in counties with a higher fraction of Hispanic and Black residents, especially in swing states. Nevertheless, the impact of non-random adoption patterns on vote shares is small.

The Geography of Giving: The Effect of Corporate Headquarters on Local Charities

We use data on the locations of the head offices of publicly traded U.S. firms to study the impact of corporate headquarters on the receipts of local charitable organizations. Cities like Houston, San Jose, and San Francisco gained significant numbers of corporate headquarters over the past two decades, while cities like Chicago and Los Angeles lost. Our analysis suggests that attracting or retaining the headquarters of an average firm yields approximately $10 million per year in contributions to local non-profits, while the headquarters of a larger firm (one ranked among the top 1000 in total market value) yields about$25 million per year. Likewise, we find that each $1000 increase in the market value of the firms headquartered in a city yields 70 cents or more to local non-profits. Most of the increase in charitable contributions arises from an effect on the number of highly-compensated individuals in a city, rather than through direct donations by the corporations themselves

The constrained E6SSM

We discuss the predictions of a constrained version of the exceptional supersymmetric standard model (cE6SSM), with a universal high energy soft scalar mass, soft trilinear coupling and soft gaugino mass. The spectrum includes a light gluino, a light wino-like neutralino and chargino pair and a light bino-like neutralino, with other sparticle masses except the lighter stop being much heavier. We also discuss scenarios with an extra light exotic colour triplet of fermions and scalars and a TeV scale Z', which lead to early exotic physics signals at the LHC.Comment: To appear in proceedings of The 2009 Europhysics Conference on High Energy Physics, 16-22 July 2009 Krakow, Poland; 4 page

Estimating the effect of mid-frequency active sonar on the population health of Blainville's beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris) in the Tongue of the Ocean

Passive acoustic methods were used to study the effect of mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS) on a population of Blainville’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon densirostris, Md) at the U.S. Navy Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Centre (AUTEC), Bahamas. AUTEC contains an array of bottom-mounted hydrophones that can detect Md echolocation clicks. Methods to estimate abundance, the risk of behavioural disruption, and the population level effect of repeated MFAS exposure are presented. A passive acoustic abundance estimation method, a parametric equation that predicts the probability of foraging dive disruption as a function of MFAS received level and an Md bioenergetics model were developed. The effect of changes in energy flow on the demographic characteristics of an Md population were explored. Passive acoustic data from AUTEC were used to estimate the behavioural disturbance resulting from sonar operations; combined with the bioenergetic model, this suggested that the effect of sonar operations could cause an increase in a female’s age at maturity, a longer inter-calf-interval, calf survival rate and probability of giving birth that could in turn result in a declining population. Model results were also compared to those from an expert elicitation study. A power analysis for predicting abundance via passive acoustic and visual monitoring were used to inform recommendations for a long-term monitoring plan that includes passive acoustic monitoring of Md abundance combined with a photo-identification study at both AUTEC and a reference site (Abaco) to improve demographic rate estimates

Do Microfinance Programs Help Families Insure Consumption Against Illness?

Families in developing countries face enormous financial risks from major illness both in terms of the cost of medical care and the loss in income associated with reduced labor supply and productivity. We test whether access to microfinancial savings and lending institutions helps Indonesian families smooth consumption after declines in adult health. In general, results support the importance of these institutions in helping families to self-insure consumption against health shocks.

Credibility and Policy Convergence: Evidence from U.S. House Roll Call Voting Records

Traditional models of politician behavior predict complete or partial policy convergence, whereby electoral competition compels partisan politicians to choose positions more moderate than their most-preferred policies. Alternatively, if politicians cannot overcome the inability to make binding pre-commitments to policies, the expected result is complete policy divergence. By exploiting a regression discontinuity (RD) design inherent in the Congressional electoral system, this paper empirically tests the strong predictions of the complete divergence hypothesis against the alternative of partial convergence within the context of Representatives' roll call voting behavior in the U.S. House (1946-1994). The RD design implies that which party wins a district seat is quasi-randomly assigned among elections that turn out to be 'close'. We use this variation to examine if Representatives' roll call voting patterns do not respond to large exogenous changes in the probability of winning the election, the strong prediction of complete policy divergence. The evidence is more consistent with full divergence and less consistent with partial convergence, suggestive that the difficulty of establishing credible commitments to policies is an important real-world phenomenon.

Electric heating as flexible demand for enhanced network operation

Electrical distribution networks are facing a number of network challenges, which combined with the anticipated transition towards a distribution system operator model will place increased emphasis on network and demand flexibility. The use of direct or storage electric heating to facilitate demand side management and/or response services address a number of these emerging distribution network operation and performance challenges, particularly in relation to increasing distributed generation and system support services. The ability to deliver such services rests on the implementation of robust, resilient, prioritised and coordinated control and communication functionalities and capabilities

A systematic analysis of the XMM-Newton background: III. Impact of the magnetospheric environment

A detailed characterization of the particle induced background is fundamental for many of the scientific objectives of the Athena X-ray telescope, thus an adequate knowledge of the background that will be encountered by Athena is desirable. Current X-ray telescopes have shown that the intensity of the particle induced background can be highly variable. Different regions of the magnetosphere can have very different environmental conditions, which can, in principle, differently affect the particle induced background detected by the instruments. We present results concerning the influence of the magnetospheric environment on the background detected by EPIC instrument onboard XMM-Newton through the estimate of the variation of the in-Field-of-View background excess along the XMM-Newton orbit. An important contribution to the XMM background, which may affect the Athena background as well, comes from soft proton flares. Along with the flaring component a low-intensity component is also present. We find that both show modest variations in the different magnetozones and that the soft proton component shows a strong trend with the distance from Earth.Comment: To appear in Experimental Astronomy. Presented at AHEAD Background Workshop, 28-30 November 2016. Rome, Ital

Research Note: Garden-owner reported habitat heterogeneity predicts plant species richness in urban gardens

Amidst ongoing urbanization and increased research on urban greenspaces, the biodiversity level of these spaces is an important variable. Attaining biodiversity estimates by asking non-expert greenspace users to assess aspects of a greenspace has a number of advantages over expert assessments (costs, sample size etc.). This article discusses an approach to such a citizen-science assessment of plant species richness using reported garden habitat heterogeneity and visually assisted reported plant species richness. We compare expert-assessed plant species richness with garden owner-generated estimates in a sample of 83 gardens. We show it is possible to predict approx. 50% of variation in plant species richness in gardens using just two visual survey questions regarding habitat heterogeneity and plant species richness.ISSN:0169-2046ISSN:1872-606