Dying younger in Scotland: trends in mortality and deprivation relative to England and Wales, 1981-2011

Given previous evidence that not all Scotland’s higher mortality compared to England & Wales (E&W) can be explained by deprivation, the aim was to enhance understanding of this excess by analysing changes in deprivation and mortality in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011. Mortality was compared by means of direct standardisation and log-linear Poisson regression models, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation. Different measures of deprivation were employed, calculated at different spatial scales. Results show that Scotland became less deprived compared to E&W between 1981 and 2011. However, the Scottish excess (the difference in mortality rates relative to E&W after adjustment for deprivation) increased from 4% higher (c.1981) to 10% higher in 2010-12. The latter figure equates to c. 5,000 extra deaths per year. The increase was driven by higher mortality from cancer, suicide, alcohol related causes and drugs-related poisonings. The size and increase in Scottish excess mortality are major concerns. Investigations into its underlying causes continue, the findings of which will be relevant to other populations, given that similar excesses have been observed elsewhere in Britain

The impact of maternal smoking on early childhood health: a retrospective cohort linked dataset analysis of 697,003 children born in Scotland 1997-2009

Objective: Smoking during pregnancy is associated with adverse health impacts on mother and child. We used a large linked Scottish dataset to produce contemporary estimates of the impact on child health, particularly hospitalisation. Design: Retrospective cohort study linking birth, death, maternity, infant health, child health surveillance and admission records. We examined the association between smoking status at maternity booking and pregnancy outcomes, hospital admission and death during the first 5 years of life. Models were adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, infant feeding, country of birth, sex, parity and delivery mode. We calculated population attributable fraction (PAF) for each outcome. Setting: Scotland, UK. Participants: Singleton births between 1997 and 2009 (n=697 003) followed to March 2012. Results: 332 386 children had at least one admission by 31 March 2012. There were 56 588 born small for gestational age, 40 492 prematurely and 1074 postneonatal deaths. Within the first 5 years of life, 56 615 children had at least one admission for acute respiratory infections, 24 088 for bronchiolitis and 7549 for asthma. Maternal smoking significantly increased admission for acute respiratory infections (adjusted HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.34, PAF 6.7%) and bronchiolitis (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.38 to 1.48 under 1 year, PAF 10.1%), asthma (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.37 age 1–5 years, PAF 7.1%) and bacterial meningitis (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.71, PAF 11.8%) age 0–5 years. Neonatal mortality (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.49, PAF 6.7%), postneonatal mortality (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.87 to 2.53, PAF 22.3%), small for gestational age (OR 2.67, 95% CI 2.62 to 2.73, PAF 27.5%) and prematurity (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.44, PAF 8.8%) were higher among the offspring of smokers. Conclusion: Smoking during pregnancy causes significant ill health and death among children born in Scotland. These findings support continued investment to reduce smoking among women before, during and after pregnancy as 50% of women will go on to have further children

Informing investment to reduce inequalities: a modelling approach

Background: Reducing health inequalities is an important policy objective but there is limited quantitative information about the impact of specific interventions. Objectives: To provide estimates of the impact of a range of interventions on health and health inequalities. Materials and methods: Literature reviews were conducted to identify the best evidence linking interventions to mortality and hospital admissions. We examined interventions across the determinants of health: a ‘living wage’; changes to benefits, taxation and employment; active travel; tobacco taxation; smoking cessation, alcohol brief interventions, and weight management services. A model was developed to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in intervention and comparison populations over a 20-year time period following interventions delivered only in the first year. We estimated changes in inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). Results: Introduction of a ‘living wage’ generated the largest beneficial health impact, with modest reductions in health inequalities. Benefits increases had modest positive impacts on health and health inequalities. Income tax increases had negative impacts on population health but reduced inequalities, while council tax increases worsened both health and health inequalities. Active travel increases had minimally positive effects on population health but widened health inequalities. Increases in employment reduced inequalities only when targeted to the most deprived groups. Tobacco taxation had modestly positive impacts on health but little impact on health inequalities. Alcohol brief interventions had modestly positive impacts on health and health inequalities only when strongly socially targeted, while smoking cessation and weight-reduction programmes had minimal impacts on health and health inequalities even when socially targeted. Conclusions: Interventions have markedly different effects on mortality, hospitalisations and inequalities. The most effective (and likely cost-effective) interventions for reducing inequalities were regulatory and tax options. Interventions focused on individual agency were much less likely to impact on inequalities, even when targeted at the most deprived communities

Type 2 diabetes and risk of hospital admission or death for chronic liver diseases

Background & aims: the impact of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on hospital admissions and deaths due to common chronic liver diseases (CLDs) is uncertain. Our aim was to investigate associations between T2DM and CLDs in a national retrospective cohort study and to investigate the role of sex and socio-economic status (SES).Methods: we used International Classification of Disease codes to identify incident alcoholic liver disease (ALD), autoimmune liver disease, haemochromatosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and viral liver disease from linked diabetes, hospital, cancer and death records for people of 40–89 years of age in Scotland 2004–2013. We used quasi Poisson regression to estimate rate ratios (RR).Results: there were 6667 and 33624 first mentions of CLD in hospital, cancer and death records over ?1.8 and 24 million person-years in people with and without T2DM, respectively. The most common liver disease was ALD among people without diabetes and was NAFLD among people with T2DM. Age-adjusted RR for T2DM compared to the non-diabetic population (95% confidence intervals) varied between 1.27 (1.04–1.55) for autoimmune liver disease and 5.36 (4.41–6.51) for NAFLD. RRs were lower for men than women and for more compared to less deprived populations for both ALD and NAFLD.Conclusions: T2DM is associated with increased risk of hospital admission or death for all common CLDs and the strength of the association varies by type of CLD, sex and SES. Increasing prevalence of T2DM is likely to result in increasing burden of all CLD

An analysis of the link between behavioural, biological and social risk factors and subsequent hospital admission in Scotland

Objective To determine the association between risk factors and hospital admission. Methods The 1998 Scottish Health Survey was linked to the Scottish hospital admission database. Findings Smoking was the most important behavioural risk factor (hazard ratio: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.59–2.27). Other behavioural risk factors yielded small but largely anticipated results. Hazard ratios for biological risks increased predictably but with some exceptions (blood pressure and total cholesterol). The top quintile for C-reactive protein showed almost double the risk of admission compared with the bottom quintile (hazard ratio: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.52–2.46). Elevated body mass index (BMI) increased the risk of serious admission (hazard ratio: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03–1.47) and raised gamma-GT increased this risk by 20% (hazard ratio: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04–1.38). Forced expiratory volume was the ‘biological’ factor with the largest risk (hazard ratio for lowest category: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.49–2.22). All the measures of social position showed variable effects on the risk of hospital admission. Large effects on risk were associated with self assessed health, longstanding illness and previous admission. Conclusion The linkage of national surveys with a prospective hospitalization database will develop into an increasingly powerful tool