Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve

We study the effect of different types of macroeconomic impulses on the nominal yield curve. We employ two distinct approaches to identifying economic shocks in VARs. Our first approach uses a structural VAR due to Galí (1992). Our second strategy identifies fundamental impulses from alternative empirical measures of economic shocks proposed in the literature. We find that most of the long-run variability of interest rates of all maturities is driven by macroeconomic impulses. Shocks to preferences for current consumption consistently induce large, persistent, and statistically significant shifts in the level of the yield curve. In contrast, technology shocks induce weaker and less robust patterns of interest rate responses, since they move real rates and expected inflation in opposite directions. Monetary policy shocks are the only macroeconomic shocks with a consistent and significant impact on the slope of the yield curve. We find no evidence that fiscal policy shocks induce any significant interest rate responses.Macroeconomics ; Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy

Fundamental Economic Shocks and The Macroeconomy

Recently there has been renewed interest in assessing economic models in the context of specific, empirically identified economic shocks. Typically, these shocks are identified one-at-a-time, ignoring potential correlations across shocks, or are identified in the context of a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) using zero restrictions only loosely tied to economic theory. In this paper, we develop an alternative approach that utilizes measures of economic shocks explicitly derived from economic models to identify multiple orthogonal structural impulses. We use this approach to identify technology shocks, marginal-rate-of-substitution (labor supply) shocks, and monetary policy shocks in the context of a Factor Augmented VAR. We then examine the Bayesian posterior distribution for the responses of a large number of endogenous macroeconomic and financial variables to these three shocks.. The shocks account for the preponderance of output, productivity and price fluctuations. Technology shocks have a permanent impact on measures of economic activity, whereas the other shocks are more transitory. Labor inputs have little initial response to technology shocks, with the response building steadily over the 5 year period. Consumption’s sluggish response to the technology shock is inconsistent with a simple formulation of the permanent income hypothesis, but would be consistent with a model of habit formation. Monetary policy has a rather small response to technology shocks, but responds “leans against the wind” in response to the more cyclical labor supply shock. This more cyclical shock has the biggest impact on interest rates. Stock prices respond to all three shocks. A number of other empirical implications of our approach are discussed.

Recent Contributions of Theory to Our Understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models

Progress toward a Soft X-ray Polarimeter

We are developing instrumentation for a telescope design capable of measuring linear X-ray polarization over a broad-band using conventional spectroscopic optics. Multilayer-coated mirrors are key to this approach, being used as Bragg reflectors at the Brewster angle. By laterally grading the multilayer mirrors and matching to the dispersion of a spectrometer, one may take advantage of high multilayer reflectivities and achieve modulation factors over 50% over the entire 0.2-0.8 keV band. We present progress on laboratory work to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing laterally graded multilayer coated mirror pair. We also present plans for a suborbital rocket experiment designed to detect a polarization level of 12-17% for an active galactic nucleus in the 0.1-1.0 keV band.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the SPIE, volume 8861, on Optics for EUV, X-Ray, and Gamma-Ray Astronom

I presupposti vichiani e la loro presenza in The Weimar Origins of Rhetorical Inquiry

Trad. del inglés por Pablo Badillo O’FarrellEsta contribución explora el impacto actual del pensamiento de Vico en la obra de David Marshall examinando las presuposiciones viquianas que han pasado de su monográfico sobre Vico de 2010 al segundo libro que ha terminado recientemente, The Weimar Origins of Rhetorical Inquiry (“Los orígenes de la investigación retórica durante el periodo de Weimar”).This contribution explores the current impact of Vico’s thinking on the work of David Marshall by examining the Viquian presuppositions between his 2010 monograph on Vico and the second book that he has recently finished, The Weimar Origins of Rhetorical Inquiry.Questo contributo esplora l’attuale impatto del pensiero di Vico sull’opera di David Marshall, esaminandone i presupposti vichiani dalla sua monografia su Vico del 2010 al secondo libro, recentemente terminato, The Weimar Origins of Rhetorical Inquiry

Knowledge of and preferred sources of assistance for physical activity in a sample of urban Indigenous Australians

Background: To examine urban Indigenous Australians' knowledge of the current Physical Activity Guidelines (PAG) and identify their preferred sources of assistance or advice regarding physical activity.----- Method: Self-completed questionnaire data were collected from 194 participants; the questionnaires sought information on standard demographics including an assessment of their perceived physical activity level relative to peers. Outcome measures were agreement with five statements from the current PAG and indicators of preferred sources of assistance or advice regarding physical activity.----- Results: Most participants demonstrated excellent knowledge of the current PAG, with 92% to 88% of participants agreeing with the statements. Significantly more older participants (> 44 years) identified that 'blocks of 10 minutes of activity are OK' compared to younger participants (aged 18–44 years: 60%; X2 = 6.23; p = .04). Significantly more higher educated participants agreed (96%) that 'brisk walking for half an hour most days was good for health' compared to the less educated participants (85%; X2 = 8.08; p = .02). The most preferred source of physical activity advice identified by men was the GP/health professional (62% vs. 53%; men and women respectively, NS), while for women it was a group to be active with (60% vs. 42%; women and men respectively; X2 = 6.09; p = .01).----- Conclusion: Urban Indigenous Australians have similar levels of knowledge regarding the PAG to non-Indigenous Australians. However, the option of accumulating 10-minute activity bouts needs to be better communicated to younger Indigenous people. Most participants expressed a preference for advice about physical activity to be delivered via health professionals, and groups to be active with. Indigenous and age-specific resources that promote the unique aspects of the current PAG (e.g., that vigorous exercise is not essential for health and blocks of 10 minutes of activity are OK) should be developed and disseminated

Oscillatory sensitivity of Atlantic overturning to high-latitude forcing

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm upper waters into northern high-latitudes and returns cold deep waters southward. Under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing the AMOC is expected to weaken due to high-latitude warming and freshening. Here, we show that the sensitivity of the AMOC to an impulsive forcing at high latitudes is an oscillatory function of forcing lead time. This leads to the counter-intuitive result that a stronger AMOC can emerge as a result of, although some years after, anomalous warming at high latitudes. In our model study, there is no simple one-to-one correspondence between buoyancy forcing anomalies and AMOC variations, which retain memory of surface buoyancy fluxes in the subpolar gyre for 15-20 years. These results make it challenging to detect secular change from short observational time serie