What long-run returns can investors expect from the stock market?

This article analyzes how macroeconomic fundamentals and high price-earnings ratios on stocks will affect long-run returns. The first section reviews the stock market's recent performance and describes how investors and analysts have reacted to this performance. The second section shows how macroeconomic trends imply that long-run returns will remain close to their 10 percent historical average. The third section analyzes the long-run relationship between price-earnings ratios and returns. The section shows that high price-earnings ratios are consistent with lower long-run returns, and argues returns may have declined because the stock market is perceived as less risky.Stock market ; Stocks ; Stock - Prices

A comparative study of breast surface reconstruction for aesthetic outcome assessment

Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer type in women, and while its survival rate is generally high the aesthetic outcome is an increasingly important factor when evaluating different treatment alternatives. 3D scanning and reconstruction techniques offer a flexible tool for building detailed and accurate 3D breast models that can be used both pre-operatively for surgical planning and post-operatively for aesthetic evaluation. This paper aims at comparing the accuracy of low-cost 3D scanning technologies with the significantly more expensive state-of-the-art 3D commercial scanners in the context of breast 3D reconstruction. We present results from 28 synthetic and clinical RGBD sequences, including 12 unique patients and an anthropomorphic phantom demonstrating the applicability of low-cost RGBD sensors to real clinical cases. Body deformation and homogeneous skin texture pose challenges to the studied reconstruction systems. Although these should be addressed appropriately if higher model quality is warranted, we observe that low-cost sensors are able to obtain valuable reconstructions comparable to the state-of-the-art within an error margin of 3 mm.Comment: This paper has been accepted to MICCAI201

Injuries among children attributed to violence and social funding:a 10-year observational study

BACKGROUND: Mechanisms and patterns of injury in children are changing, with violent mechanisms becoming more prevalent over time. Government funding of services for children and young people has reduced nationally over the last decade. We aimed to investigate the trends in admissions of injured children to a Major Trauma Centre (MTC) and examine the relationship between injuries sustained by violent mechanisms and local authority funding of children and youth services within the same catchment area. METHODS: A 10-year observational study included all patients aged<18 years treated at a regional MTC between April 2012 and April 2022. Number of admissions with violent trauma, mechanism of injury, requirement for operative intervention and mortality were compared with published annual local authority expenditure reports. RESULTS: 1126 children were included; 71.3% were boys, with median age 11 years (IQR 3–16). There were 154/1126 (14%) children who were victims of violent trauma; they were more likely to be boys than children injured by non-violent mechanisms (84% vs 69%). The proportion of injuries attributed to violence increased over the study period at the same time as reductions in local authority funding of services for the early years, families and youth services. However, there were insufficient data to formally assess the interdependency between these factors. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of injuries attributed to violence has increased over time, and government spending on specific children and young people’s services has decreased over the same time period. Further work is needed to examine the interdependency between spending and violent injuries in children, and public health interventions to target violence-related injuries should take into account youth service funding

Prior Low- or High-Intensity Exercise Alters Pacing Strategy, Energy System Contribution and Performance during a 4-km Cycling Time Trial

We analyzed the influence of prior exercise designed to reduce predominantly muscle glycogen in either type I or II fibers on pacing and performance during a 4-km cycling time trial (TT). After preliminary and familiarization trials, in a randomized, repeated-measures crossover design, ten amateur cyclists performed: 1) an exercise designed to reduce glycogen of type I muscle fibers, followed by a 4-km TT (EX-FIB I); 2) an exercise designed to reduce glycogen of type II muscle fibers, followed by a 4-km TT (EX-FIB II) and; 3) a 4-km TT, without the prior exercise (CONT). the muscle-glycogen-reducing exercise in both EX-FIB I and EX-FIB II was performed in the evening, similar to 12 h before the 4-km TT. Performance time was increased and power output (PO) was reduced in EX-FIB I (432.8 +/- 8.3 s and 204.9 +/- 10.9 W) and EX-FIB II (428.7 +/- 6.7 s and 207.5 +/- 9.1 W) compared to CONT (420.8 +/- 6.4 s and 218.4 +/- 9.3 W; P0.05). the PO was lower in EX-FIB I than in CONT at the beginning and middle of the trial (P0.05). the integrated electromyography was unchanged between conditions (P>0.05). Performance may have been impaired in EX-FIB I due a more conservative pacing at the beginning and middle, which was associated with a reduced aerobic contribution. in turn, the PO profile adopted in EX-FIB II was also reduced throughout the trial, but the impairment in performance may be attributed to a reduced glycolytic contribution (i.e. reduced lactate accumulation).Foundation of Aids to Scientific Research of the State of Alagoas (FAPEAL)Univ Fed Pernambuco, CAV, Dept Phys Educ & Sports Sci, Sports Sci Res Grp, Vitoria de Santo Antao, Pernambuco, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Sch Phys Educ & Sport, Endurance Performance Res Grp, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Nephrol, São Paulo, BrazilVictoria Univ, Coll Sport & Exercise Sci, Inst Sport Exercise & Active Living, Melbourne, Vic 8001, AustraliaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Nephrol, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Constraints on the Progenitor of SN 2016gkg From Its Shock-Cooling Light Curve

SN 2016gkg is a nearby Type IIb supernova discovered shortly after explosion. Like several other Type IIb events with early-time data, SN 2016gkg displays a double-peaked light curve, with the first peak associated with the cooling of a low-mass extended progenitor envelope. We present unprecedented intranight-cadence multi-band photometric coverage of the first light-curve peak of SN 2016gkg obtained from the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope network, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, the Swift satellite and various amateur-operated telescopes. Fitting these data to analytical shock-cooling models gives a progenitor radius of ~25-140 solar radii with ~2-30 x 10^-2 solar masses of material in the extended envelope (depending on the model and the assumed host-galaxy extinction). Our radius estimates are broadly consistent with values derived independently (in other works) from HST imaging of the progenitor star. However, the shock-cooling model radii are on the lower end of the values indicated by pre-explosion imaging. Hydrodynamical simulations could refine the progenitor parameters deduced from the shock-cooling emission and test the analytical models.Comment: Accepted by ApJ

Effect of Time of Day on Performance, Hormonal and Metabolic Response during a 1000-M Cycling Time Trial

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of time of day on performance, pacing, and hormonal and metabolic responses during a 1000-m cycling time-trial. Nine male, recreational cyclists visited the laboratory four times. During the 1st visit the participants performed an incremental test and during the 2nd visit they performed a 1000-m cycling familiarization trial. On the 3rd and 4th visits, the participants performed a 1000-m TT at either 8 am or 6 pm, in randomized, repeated-measures, crossover design. the time to complete the time trial was lower in the evening than in the morning (88.2 +/- 8.7 versus 94.7 +/- 10.9 s, respectively, p<0.05), but there was no significant different in pacing. However, oxygen uptake and aerobic mechanical power output at 600 and 1000 m tended to be higher in the evening (p<0.07 and 0.09, respectively). There was also a main effect of time of day for insulin, cortisol, and total and free testosterone concentration, which were all higher in the morning (+60%, +26%, +31% and +22%, respectively, p<0.05). the growth hormone, was twofold higher in the evening (p<0.05). the plasma glucose was similar to 11% lower in the morning (p<0.05). Glucagon, norepinephrine, epinephrine and lactate were similar for the morning and evening trials (p<0.05), but the norepinephrine response to the exercise was increased in the morning (+46%, p<0.05), and it was accompanied by a 5-fold increase in the response of glucose. Muscle recruitment, as measured by electromyography, was similar between morning and evening trials (p<0.05). Our findings suggest that performance was improved in the evening, and it was accompanied by an improved hormonal and metabolic milieu.Alagoas Research Foundation (FAPEAL)Univ Fed Alagoas, Sports Sci Res Grp, Maceio, Alagoas, BrazilUniv Fed Pernambuco, CAV, Dept Phys Educ & Sports Sci, Vitoria de Santo Anta, PE, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Sch Phys Educ & Sport, Endurance Performance Res Grp, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Nephrol, São Paulo, BrazilVictoria Univ, Inst Sport Exercise & Act Living, Melbourne, Vic 8001, AustraliaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Nephrol, São Paulo, BrazilAlagoas Research Foundation (FAPEAL): 20110825-011-0025-0004Web of Scienc

Sediment and nutrient retention in ponds on an agricultural stream: evaluating effectiveness for diffuse pollution mitigation

The creation of ponds and wetlands has the potential to alleviate stream water quality impairment in catchments affected by diffuse agricultural pollution. Understanding the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of these features is important in determining their effectiveness at mitigating pollution. This study investigated sediment and nutrient retention in three connected (on-line) ponds on a lowland headwater stream by sampling inflowing and outflowing concentrations during base and storm flows. Sediment trapping devices were used to quantify sediment and phosphorus accumulations within ponds over approximately monthly periods. The organic matter content and particle size composition of accumulated sediment were also measured. The ponds retained dissolved nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus and suspended solids during baseflows. During small to moderate storm events, some ponds were able to reduce peak concentrations and loads of suspended solids and phosphorus; however, during large magnitude events, resuspension of deposited sediment resulted in net loss. Ponds filtered out larger particles most effectively. Between August 2019 and March 2020, the ponds accumulated 0.306 t ha−1 sediment from the 30 ha contributing area. During this period, total sediment accumulations in ponds were estimated to equal 7.6% of the suspended flux leaving the 340 ha catchment downstream. This study demonstrates the complexity of pollutant retention dynamics in on-line ponds and highlights how their effectiveness can be influenced by the timing and magnitude of events

Monitoring NFM in the Evenlode catchment: evidence on the delivery of multiple benefits

The Littlestock Brook Natural Flood Management (NFM) pilot scheme in the Evenlode Catchment was established in 2017/2018 as a catchment-based approach to alleviate flood risk to the downstream community whilst also delivering benefits for water quality. Hydrological monitoring at multiple scales has allowed us to investigate the efficacy of offline storage features and pond interventions for both flood attenuation and diffuse pollution mitigation. We present findings on the cumulative effect of these interventions to reduce downstream flood peaks and to intercept and store fine sediment and nutrients