Forecasting Design Day Demand Using Extremal Quantile Regression

Extreme events occur rarely, making them difficult to predict. Extreme cold events strain natural gas systems to their limits. Natural gas distribution companies need to be prepared to satisfy demand on any given day that is at or warmer than an extreme cold threshold. The hypothetical day with temperature at this threshold is called the Design Day. To guarantee Design Day demand is satisfied, distribution companies need to determine the demand that is unlikely to be exceeded on the Design Day. We approach determining this demand as an extremal quantile regression problem. We review current methods for extremal quantile regression. We implement a quantile forecast to estimate the demand that has a minimal chance of being exceeded on the design day. We show extremal quantile regression to be more reliable than direct quantile estimation. We discuss the difficult task of evaluating a probabilistic forecast on rare events. Probabilistic forecasting is a quickly growing research topic in the field of energy forecasting. Our paper contributes to this field in three ways. First, we forecast quantiles during extreme cold events where data is sparse. Second, we forecast extremely high quantiles that have a very low probability of being exceeded. Finally, we provide a real world scenario on which to apply these techniques

Oral agent offers relief from generalized hyperhidrosis

Hyperhidrosis is a common, self-limiting problem affecting 2% to 3% of the population in the United States. Patients may complain of localized sweating of the hands, feet, face, or underarms or more systemic, generalized sweating in multiple locations. Either way, patients always note a significant impact on their quality of life. Treatment of hyperhidrosis has traditionally focused on topical therapies to the affected areas. The availability of low-cost prescription and over-the-counter aluminum-based antiperspirant agents makes topicals the first-line choice

The diverse hot gas content and dynamics of optically similar low-mass elliptical galaxies

The presence of hot X-ray emitting gas is ubiquitous in massive early-type galaxies. However, much less is known about the content and physical status of the hot X-ray gas in low-mass ellipticals. In the present paper we study the X-ray gas content of four low-mass elliptical galaxies using archival Chandra X-ray observations. The sample galaxies, NGC821, NGC3379, NGC4278, and NGC4697, have approximately identical K-band luminosities, and hence stellar masses, yet their X-ray appearance is strikingly different. We conclude that the unresolved emission in NGC821 and NGC3379 is built up from a multitude of faint compact objects, such as coronally active binaries and cataclysmic variables. Despite the non-detection of X-ray gas, these galaxies may host low density, and hence low luminosity, X-ray gas components, which undergo a Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) driven outflow. We detect hot X-ray gas with a temperature of kT ~ 0.35 keV in NGC4278, the component of which has a steeper surface brightness distribution than the stellar light. Within the central 50 arcsec (~3.9 kpc) the estimated gas mass is ~3 x 10^7 M_sun, implying a gas mass fraction of ~0.06%. We demonstrate that the X-ray gas exhibits a bipolar morphology in the northeast-southwest direction, indicating that it may be outflowing from the galaxy. The mass and energy budget of the outflow can be maintained by evolved stars and SNe Ia, respectively. The X-ray gas in NGC4697 has an average temperature of kT ~ 0.3 keV, and a significantly broader distribution than the stellar light. The total gas mass within 90 arcsec (~5.1 kpc) is ~2.1 x 10^8 M_sun, hence the gas mass fraction is ~0.4%. Based on the distribution and physical parameters of the X-ray gas, we conclude that it is most likely in hydrostatic equilibrium, although a subsonic outflow may be present.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Ap

Issues for designing and evaluating a 'heroin trial': three discussion papers

Report on a workshop on trial evaluation / G. Bammer and D.N. McDonald -- An evaluation of possible designs for a heroin trial / R.G. Jarrett and P.J. Solomon -- Service provision considerations for the evaluation of a heroin trial. A discussion paper / D.N. McDonald, G. Bammer, D.G. Legge and B.M. Sibthorpe

Caltech Faint Field Galaxy Redshift Survey IX: Source detection and photometry in the Hubble Deep Field Region

Detection and photometry of sources in the U_n, G, R, and K_s bands in a 9x9 arcmin^2 region of the sky, centered on the Hubble Deep Field, are described. The data permit construction of complete photometric catalogs to roughly U_n=25, G=26, R=25.5 and K_s=20 mag, and significant photometric measurements somewhat fainter. The galaxy number density is 1.3x10^5 deg^{-2} to R=25.0 mag. Galaxy number counts have slopes dlog N/dm=0.42, 0.33, 0.27 and 0.31 in the U_n, G, R and K_s bands, consistent with previous studies and the trend that fainter galaxies are, on average, bluer. Galaxy catalogs selected in the R and K_s bands are presented, containing 3607 and 488 sources, in field areas of 74.8 and 59.4 arcmin^2, to R=25.5 and and K_s=20 mag.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJS; some tables and slightly nicer figures available at http://www.sns.ias.edu/~hogg/deep

Angular clustering of galaxies at 3.6 microns from the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic (SWIRE) Survey

We present the first analysis of large-scale clustering from the Spitzer Wide-area Infrared Extragalactic legacy survey (SWIRE). We compute the angular correlation function of galaxies selected to have 3.6 m fluxes brighter than 32 Jy in three fields totaling 2 deg2 in area. In each field we detect clustering with a high level of significance. The amplitude and slope of the correlation function is consistent between the three fields and is modeled as w() ¼ A1 with A ¼ (0:6 0:3) ; 10 3; ¼ 2:03 0:10. With a fixed slope of ¼ 1:8, we obtain an amplitude of A ¼ (1:7 0:1) ; 10 3. Assuming an equivalent depth of K 18:7 mag we find that our errors are smaller but our results are consistent with existing clustering measurements in K-band surveys and with stable clustering models. We estimate our median redshift z ’ 0:75, and this allows us to obtain an estimate of the three-dimensional correlation function (r), for which we find r0 ¼ 4:4 0:1 h 1 Mpc