Long Run Projections for Climate Change Scenarios

The prediction of future temperature increases depends critically on the projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. Yet there is a vigorous debate about how these projections should be undertaken and how reasonable is the approach of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which forms the basis of nearly all recent analyses of the impacts of climate change. In particular there has been significant criticism by Ian Castles and David Henderson regarding the plausibility of some scenarios. This paper explores a range of methodological issues surrounding projecting greenhouse emissions over the next century. It points out that understanding future emissions, requires a framework that deals with the sources of economic growth and allows for endogenous structural change. It also explores the role of “convergence” assumptions and the debate regarding the use of purchasing power parity (PPP) measurement versus market exchange rate (MER) measurement of income differentials. Using the G-Cubed multi-country model we show that emission projections based on convergence assumptions defined in MER terms, are 40% higher by 2100 than emissions generated using a PPP comparison of income differentials between economies. This result illustrates the argument by Castles and Henderson that the use of MER convergence assumptions will likely overestimate emissions projections, taking many other issues as given. However it is not clear what this means for the SRES projections given that it might be argued that in some models in the SRES, there could be endogenous changes in technology that will offset this result. We do not have access to those models to explore this issue and can only show what this particular assumption implies in the G-Cubed model. It is also ambiguous exactly what was done in the SRES report regarding convergence assumptions in some scenarios. Either way these results do not imply that climate change is not an issue but that there is a great deal of uncertainty about future climate projections and it is very unhelpful to presume that all futures are equally likely. In order to deal with this we also propose as a better guide to policymakers a methodology that calculates probabilities for future projections rather than the approach of SRES which is based on storylines without any assessment of plausibility. It is unfortunate that some analyses of the impacts of future climate change are based on the extreme outliers from the SRES without any understanding of the probability of these outcomes. This alternative approach could be done using the economic approach proposed in the G-Cubed model as outlined in this paper, or it could be done with the existing range of SRES scenarios to better inform the debate on likely future greenhouse scenarios.Climate change, Kyoto Protocol, G-Cubed, model, projections, SRES, PPP versus MER

Differing preferences of Antarctic soil nematodes for microbial prey

We tested the preferences of three nematode taxa, Geomonhystera villosa, Plectus spp. and Teratocephalus spp., extracted from moss at Signy Island in the Maritime Antarctic, for two microalgae, three microfungi and six heterotrophic bacteria, each also from soils at Signy Island. Choice test experiments on water agar medium, in which nematodes were enumerated in wells containing microbes at 24 and 48 h, indicated that there were differing preferences between nematodes for distinct prey. G. villosa was significantly attracted to the alga Chlorella cf. minutissima and the fungus Mortierella hyalina, and was more attracted to all algae and fungi than either of the other two nematodes. Both G. villosa and Teratocephalus spp. were attracted to an actinobacterium. Plectus spp. were significantly attracted to the alga Stichococcus bacillaris and bacteria with close taxonomic affinities to Arthrobacter, Pseudomonas and Polaromonas. Experiments using 0.5 μm diameter fluorescent beads indicated significantly increased ingestion by nematodes in the presence of each of these microbes compared with controls, except by Plectus spp. in the presence of S. bacillaris. We conclude that complex trophic interactions may occur in apparently simple Antarctic soil food webs

Expanded microchannel heat exchanger: design, fabrication and preliminary experimental test

This paper first reviews non-traditional heat exchanger geometry, laser welding, practical issues with microchannel heat exchangers, and high effectiveness heat exchangers. Existing microchannel heat exchangers have low material costs, but high manufacturing costs. This paper presents a new expanded microchannel heat exchanger design and accompanying continuous manufacturing technique for potential low-cost production. Polymer heat exchangers have the potential for high effectiveness. The paper discusses one possible joining method - a new type of laser welding named "forward conduction welding," used to fabricate the prototype. The expanded heat exchanger has the potential to have counter-flow, cross-flow, or parallel-flow configurations, be used for all types of fluids, and be made of polymers, metals, or polymer-ceramic precursors. The cost and ineffectiveness reduction may be an order of magnitude or more, saving a large fraction of primary energy. The measured effectiveness of the prototype with 28 micron thick black low density polyethylene walls and counterflow, water-to-water heat transfer in 2 mm channels was 72%, but multiple low-cost stages could realize the potential of higher effectiveness

On Leveraging Tests to Infer Nullable Annotations

Issues related to the dereferencing of null pointers are a pervasive and widely studied problem, and numerous static analyses have been proposed for this purpose. These are typically based on dataflow analysis, and take advantage of annotations indicating whether a type is nullable or not. The presence of such annotations can significantly improve the accuracy of null checkers. However, most code found in the wild is not annotated, and tools must fall back on default assumptions, leading to both false positives and false negatives. Manually annotating code is a laborious task and requires deep knowledge of how a program interacts with clients and components. We propose to infer nullable annotations from an analysis of existing test cases. For this purpose, we execute instrumented tests and capture nullable API interactions. Those recorded interactions are then refined (santitised and propagated) in order to improve their precision and recall. We evaluate our approach on seven projects from the spring ecosystems and two google projects which have been extensively manually annotated with thousands of @Nullable annotations. We find that our approach has a high precision, and can find around half of the existing @Nullable annotations. This suggests that the method proposed is useful to mechanise a significant part of the very labour-intensive annotation task

Putting the Semantics into Semantic Versioning

The long-standing aspiration for software reuse has made astonishing strides in the past few years. Many modern software development ecosystems now come with rich sets of publicly-available components contributed by the community. Downstream developers can leverage these upstream components, boosting their productivity. However, components evolve at their own pace. This imposes obligations on and yields benefits for downstream developers, especially since changes can be breaking, requiring additional downstream work to adapt to. Upgrading too late leaves downstream vulnerable to security issues and missing out on useful improvements; upgrading too early results in excess work. Semantic versioning has been proposed as an elegant mechanism to communicate levels of compatibility, enabling downstream developers to automate dependency upgrades. While it is questionable whether a version number can adequately characterize version compatibility in general, we argue that developers would greatly benefit from tools such as semantic version calculators to help them upgrade safely. The time is now for the research community to develop such tools: large component ecosystems exist and are accessible, component interactions have become observable through automated builds, and recent advances in program analysis make the development of relevant tools feasible. In particular, contracts (both traditional and lightweight) are a promising input to semantic versioning calculators, which can suggest whether an upgrade is likely to be safe.Comment: to be published as Onward! Essays 202

Boninite and Harzburgite from Leg 125 (Bonin-Mariana Forearc): A Case Study of Magma Genesis during the Initial Stages of Subduction

Holes drilled into the volcanic and ultrabasic basement of the Izu-Ogasawara and Mariana forearc terranes during Leg 125 provide data on some of the earliest lithosphere created after the start of Eocene subduction in the Western Pacific. The volcanic basement contains three boninite series and one tholeiite series. (1) Eocene low-Ca boninite and low-Ca bronzite andesite pillow lavas and dikes dominate the lowermost part of the deep crustal section through the outer-arc high at Site 786. (2) Eocene intermediate-Ca boninite and its fractionation products (bronzite andesite, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite) make up the main part of the boninitic edifice at Site 786. (3) Early Oligocene intermediate-Ca to high-Ca boninite sills or dikes intrude the edifice and perhaps feed an uppermost breccia unit at Site 786. (4) Eocene or Early Oligocene tholeiitic andesite, dacite, and rhyolite form the uppermost part of the outer-arc high at Site 782. All four groups can be explained by remelting above a subduction zone of oceanic mantle lithosphere that has been depleted by its previous episode of partial melting at an ocean ridge. We estimate that the average boninite source had lost 10-15 wt% of melt at the ridge before undergoing further melting (5-10%) shortly after subduction started. The composition of the harzburgite (<2% clinopyroxene, Fo content of about 92%) indicates that it underwent a total of about 25% melting with respect to a fertile MORB mantle. The low concentration of Nb in the boninite indicates that the oceanic lithosphere prior to subduction was not enriched by any asthenospheric (OIB) component. The subduction component is characterized by (1) high Zr and Hf contents relative to Sm, Ti, Y, and middle-heavy REE, (2) light REE-enrichment, (3) low contents of Nb and Ta relative to Th, Rb, or La, (4) high contents of Na and Al, and (5) Pb isotopes on the Northern Hemisphere Reference Line. This component is unlike any subduction component from active arc volcanoes in the Izu-Mariana region or elsewhere. Modeling suggests that these characteristics fit a trondhjemitic melt from slab fusion in amphibolite facies. The resulting metasomatized mantle may have contained about 0.15 wt% water. The overall melting regime is constrained by experimental data to shallow depths and high temperatures (1250°C and 1.5 kb for an average boninite) of boninite segregation. We thus envisage that boninites were generated by decompression melting of a diapir of metasomatized residual MORB mantle leaving the harzburgites as the uppermost, most depleted residue from this second stage of melting. Thermal constraints require that both subducted lithosphere and overlying oceanic lithosphere of the mantle wedge be very young at the time of boninite genesis. This conclusion is consistent with models in which an active transform fault offsetting two ridge axes is placed under compression or transpression following the Eocene plate reorganization in the Pacific. Comparison between Leg 125 boninites and boninites and related rocks elsewhere in the Western Pacific highlights large regional differences in petrogenesis in terms of mantle mineralogy, degree of partial melting, composition of subduction components, and the nature of pre-subduction lithosphere. It is likely that, on a regional scale, the initiation of subduction involved subducted crust and lithospheric mantle wedge of a range of ages and compositions, as might be expected in this type of tectonic setting

Contracts in the Wild: A Study of Java Programs (Artifact)

This artefact contains a dataset of open-source programs obtained from the Maven Central Repository and scripts that first extract contracts from these programs and then perform several analyses on the contracts extracted. The extraction and analysis is fully automated and directly produces the tables presented in the accompanying paper. The results show how contracts are used in real-world program, and how their usage changes between versions and within inheritance hierarchies

Hydrothermal activity lowers trophic diversity in Antarctic sedimented hydrothermal vents

Sedimented hydrothermal vents are those in which hydrothermal fluid vents through sediment and are among the least studied deep-sea ecosystems. We present a combination of microbial and biochemical data to assess trophodynamics between and within hydrothermally active and off-vent areas of the Bransfield Strait (1050–1647 m depth). Microbial composition, biomass and fatty acid signatures varied widely between and within vent and non-vent sites and provided evidence of diverse metabolic activity. Several species showed diverse feeding strategies and occupied different trophic positions in vent and non-vent areas and stable isotope values of consumers were generally not consistent with feeding structure morphology. Niche area and the diversity of microbial fatty acids reflected trends in species diversity and was lowest at the most hydrothermally active site. Faunal utilisation of chemosynthetic activity was relatively limited but was detected at both vent and non-vent sites as evidenced by carbon and sulphur isotopic signatures, suggesting that the hydrothermal activity can affect trophodynamics over a much wider area than previously thought

Visitor satisfaction with a key wildlife tourism destination within the context of a damaged landscape

Wildlife tourism is a growing industry globally and visitor satisfaction is vital to ensure its long-term sustainability. The Lower Kinabatangan River is a premier wildlife tourism destination that is affected by surrounding land uses and needs careful management to ensure it continues to provide positive wildlife tourism experiences. As little is known about the motivations and satisfaction of tourists with this experience, a visitor survey was conducted along the Lower Kinabatangan River with 346 surveys completed. The attribute ‘Interest in viewing wildlife’ had the highest mean level of importance and satisfaction (mean = 4.54 and 4.1, respectively, on a 5-point scale). Respondents were very satisfied with their wildlife tour experience (85%) and would recommend the experience to their friends (87%). However, almost half of respondents (47%) felt more needed to be done to protect the Kinabatangan River and wildlife. Although respondents were satisfied overall with their experience, they also expressed concerns over the number of boats and the protection of the River. Comments focused on the presence of rubbish in the River, intrusion of oil palm and the loss of forest. Many issues are beyond the management realms of tour operators but will impact on the future of the industry