A Neo-Institutional Assessment of Cooperative Evolution: Comparing the Australian Wheat Board and the Fonterra Dairy Group

Agribusiness,

The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm

No abstract.

Elliptical slice sampling

Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic code applicable to many models, 2) it has no free parameters, 3) it works well for a variety of Gaussian process based models. These properties make our method ideal for use while model building, removing the need to spend time deriving and tuning updates for more complex algorithms.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, appearing in AISTATS 2010 (JMLR: W&CP volume 6). Differences from first submission: some minor edits in response to feedback

Nested sampling for Potts models

Nested sampling is a new Monte Carlo method by Skilling [1] intended for general Bayesian computation. Nested sampling provides a robust alternative to annealing-based methods for computing normalizing constants. It can also generate estimates of other quantities such as posterior expectations. The key technical requirement is an ability to draw samples uniformly from the prior subject to a constraint on the likelihood. We provide a demonstration with the Potts model, an undirected graphical model

Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

Recent studies about estimating half-lives of purchasing power parity argues that heterogeneity bias resulting from aggregating the real exchange rate across sectors is important and should be taken into account. However, they do not use appropriate techniques to measure persistence. In this paper we use the extended median-unbiased estimation method in panel context for each sector separately and calculate both point estimates and confidence intervals. We conclude that controlling for sectoral heterogeneity bias and small sample bias will not solve the PPP puzzle.PPP persistence, real exchange rate, heterogeneity bias extended median-unbiased estimation, panel data

Some Issues in the Testing of Computer Simulation Models

The testing of simulation models has much in common with testing processes in other types of application involving software development. However, there are also important differences associated with the fact that simulation model testing involves two distinct aspects, which are known as verification and validation. Model validation is concerned with investigation of modelling errors and model limitations while verification involves checking that the simulation program is an accurate representation of the mathematical and logical structure of the underlying model. Success in model validation depends upon the availability of detailed information about all aspects of the system being modelled. It also may depend on the availability of high quality data from the system which can be used to compare its behaviour with that of the corresponding simulation model. Transparency, high standards of documentation and good management of simulation models and data sets are basic requirements in simulation model testing. Unlike most other areas of software testing, model validation often has subjective elements, with potentially important contributions from face- validation procedures in which experts give a subjective assessment of the fidelity of the model. Verification and validation processes are not simply applied once but must be used repeatedly throughout the model development process, with regressive testing principles being applied. Decisions about when a model is acceptable for the intended application inevitably involve some form of risk assessment. A case study concerned with the development and application of a simulation model of a hydro-turbine and electrical generator system is used to illustrate some of the issues arising in a typical control engineering application. Results from the case study suggest that it is important to bring together objective aspects of simulation model testing and the more subjective face- validation aspects in a coherent fashion. Suggestions are also made about the need for changes in approach in the teaching of simulation techniques to engineering students to give more emphasis to issues of model quality, testing and validation

Powering Future Transport in Scotland: A Review for the Scottish Association for Public Transport

This report discusses energy costs and emissions associated with transport in Scotland and reviews options for future power sources for different modes of public transport. Transport provides a major contribution to greenhouse gas and other harmful emissions worldwide and efforts to reduce these are important for all forms of public transport, as well as for private cars and for the movement of freight. The effects of transport policy decisions are recognised, increasingly, as being very important for the electricity supply industry at national and local levels, largely because of the growth in the numbers of electric and hybrid road vehicles. Moving from oil to low carbon energy for transport raises important issues for electrical power generation and distribution systems in addition to challenges already being faced by the electrical power industry as the proportion of generating capacity involving renewables increases. The report starts by considering current energy costs and emissions for different forms of passenger transport and then outlines some current developments in areas such as internal combustion engine technology, battery storage systems and hydrogen fuel cells. Systems involving short-term energy storage and recovery of energy that would otherwise be dissipated as heat during braking are also discussed. Such systems generally involve the use of super-capacitors, flywheels or hydraulic devices. References are provided to the sources of data used in the analysis carried out for this review and, also, to sources of information about relevant developments in science and engineering. For all the new developments mentioned, there is a brief review of some transport applications in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. The possible impact of autonomous vehicles on future car ownership is still not known and the effects of this technology on public transport remain uncertain. As well as discussing autonomous road vehicles, the report makes brief mention of the potential of autonomous systems and increased automation for rail transport and for tramway operations. The benefits of further conventional railway electrification are reviewed in terms of energy usage, costs and emissions and the advantages of a more integrated approach to the provision of public transport in Scotland are emphasised. The value of using mathematical modelling and simulation methods to explore options in transport systems developments and planning is discussed, and the importance of testing simulation models in ways that are appropriate for the intended application is emphasised. This review presents the first results from a continuing study which was started in 2018 and is intended to provide information that should be relevant for those involved in decision-making in Scotland at the time of publication. The quantitative information contained within it clearly needs to be updated on a regular basis. The review concludes with recommendations for the Scottish Association for Public Transport about possible priorities for its efforts to increase public awareness about transport issues and is intended to be the first of a series of publications on transport and energy issues in the Scottish context. The references form an important part of the report and provide a potentially important bibliography which must be augmented and updated regularly

Inverse simulation and analysis of underwater vehicle dynamics using feedback principles

Inverse simulation is a technique used in the modelling of dynamic systems that allows time histories of input variables to be found that generate required model output responses and provide inverse solutions in cases where analytical approaches to model inversion can present difficulties. This paper describes the application of inverse simulation to a nonlinear dynamic model of an underwater vehicle (UUV) and the determination of vehicle control inputs for specified manoeuvres. The approach to inverse simulation used in this application is based on the principles of feedback. Design issues relating to the UUV control surfaces and propeller thrust are highlighted through this procedure. The paper includes an outline of the nonlinear model of the UUV and typical sets of experimental conditions. Feedback loops are designed around the model for selected output variables and the inverse solutions are generated through simulation of this multi-input multi-output closed-loop system. It is shown that the feedback approach can provide inverse solutions for an appropriate choice of loop gain factors and integration time step using a fixed-step integration algorithm. Inverse solutions generated in this way are shown provide insight concerning issues of vehicle handling and manoeuvrability in a more direct fashion than is possible using conventional simulation methods