Evaluating Judges and Judicial Institutions: Reorienting the Perspective

Empirical scholarship on judges, judging, and judicial institutions, a staple in political science, is becoming increasingly popular in law schools. We propose that this scholarship can be improved and enhanced by greater collaboration between empirical scholars, legal theorists, and the primary subjects of the research, the judges. We recently hosted a workshop that attempted to move away from the conventional mode of involving judges and theorists in empirical research, where they serve as commentators on empirical studies that they often see as reductionist and mis-focused. Instead, we had the judges and theorists set the discussion agenda for the empiricists by describing topics that they thought were worthy of inquiry. In this essay, we explain why we think collaboration of this sort should be encouraged and draw on the workshop experience to offer suggestions for improving the quality and utility of empirical research in this area

nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

Rounding Algorithms for a Geometric Embedding of Minimum Multiway Cut

The multiway-cut problem is, given a weighted graph and k >= 2 terminal nodes, to find a minimum-weight set of edges whose removal separates all the terminals. The problem is NP-hard, and even NP-hard to approximate within 1+delta for some small delta > 0. Calinescu, Karloff, and Rabani (1998) gave an algorithm with performance guarantee 3/2-1/k, based on a geometric relaxation of the problem. In this paper, we give improved randomized rounding schemes for their relaxation, yielding a 12/11-approximation algorithm for k=3 and a 1.3438-approximation algorithm in general. Our approach hinges on the observation that the problem of designing a randomized rounding scheme for a geometric relaxation is itself a linear programming problem. The paper explores computational solutions to this problem, and gives a proof that for a general class of geometric relaxations, there are always randomized rounding schemes that match the integrality gap.Comment: Conference version in ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (1999). To appear in Mathematics of Operations Researc

Transcriptional plasticity bufers genetic variation in zinc homeostasis

In roots of Arabidopsis thaliana, Zn can be either loaded into the xylem for translocation to the shoot or stored in vacuoles. Vacuolar storage is achieved through the action of the Zn/Cd transporter HMA3 (Heavy Metal Atpase 3). The Col-0 accession has an HMA3 loss-of-function allele resulting in high shoot Cd, when compared to accession CSHL-5 which has a functional allele and low shoot Cd. Interestingly, both Col-0 and CSHL-5 have similar shoot Zn concentrations. We hypothesize that plants sense changes in cytosolic Zn that are due to variation in HMA3 function, and respond by altering expression of genes related to Zn uptake, transport and compartmentalisation, in order to maintain Zn homeostasis. The expression level of genes known to be involved in Zn homeostasis were quantified in both wildtype Col-0 and Col-0::HMA3CSHL-5 plants transformed with the functional CSHL-5 allele of HMA3. We observed significant positive correlations between expression of HMA3 and of genes known to be involved in Zn homeostasis, including ZIP3, ZIP4, MTP1, and bZIP19. The results support our hypothesis that alteration in the level of function of HMA3 is counterbalanced by the fine regulation of the Zn homeostasis gene network in roots of A. thaliana

Bimetallic Palladium Catalysis: Direct Observation of Pd(III)–Pd(III) Intermediates

$PhI(OAc)_2$ is a common oxidant for Pd-catalyzed C−H bond functionalizations. Mechanistic hypotheses since the 1960s have suggested a Pd(II)/Pd(IV) mechanism. Here we present evidence for the relevance of bimetallic Pd(III) complexes to catalysis. A bimetallic Pd(III) acetate was isolated and can afford product by bimetallic reductive elimination.Chemistry and Chemical Biolog