Plant hydraulic traits reveal islands as refugia from worsening drought.

Relatively mesic environments within arid regions may be important conservation targets as 'climate change refugia' for species persistence in the face of worsening drought conditions. Semi-arid southern California and the relatively mesic environments of California's Channel Islands provide a model system for examining drought responses of plants in potential climate change refugia. Most methods for detecting refugia are focused on 'exposure' of organisms to certain abiotic conditions, which fail to assess how local adaptation or acclimation of plant traits (i.e. 'sensitivity') contribute to or offset the benefits of reduced exposure. Here, we use a comparative plant hydraulics approach to characterize the vulnerability of plants to drought, providing a framework for identifying the locations and trait patterns that underlie functioning climate change refugia. Seasonal water relations, xylem hydraulic traits and remotely sensed vegetation indices of matched island and mainland field sites were used to compare the response of native plants from contrasting island and mainland sites to hotter droughts in the early 21st century. Island plants experienced more favorable water relations and resilience to recent drought. However, island plants displayed low plasticity/adaptation of hydraulic traits to local conditions, which indicates that relatively conserved traits of island plants underlie greater hydraulic safety and localized buffering from regional drought conditions. Our results provide an explanation for how California's Channel Islands function as a regional climate refugia during past and current climate change and demonstrate a physiology-based approach for detecting potential climate change refugia in other systems

A minimal model of fire-vegetation feedbacks and disturbance stochasticity generates alternative stable states in grassland–shrubland–woodland systems

Altered disturbance regimes in the context of global change are likely to have profound consequences for ecosystems. Interactions between fire and vegetation are of particular interest, as fire is a major driver of vegetation change, and vegetation properties (e.g., amount, flammability) alter fire regimes. Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) constitute a paradigmatic example of temperate fire-prone vegetation. Although these ecosystems may be heavily impacted by global change, disturbance regime shifts and the implications of fire-vegetation feedbacks in the dynamics of such biomes are still poorly characterized. We developed a minimal modeling framework incorporating key aspects of fire ecology and successional processes to evaluate the relative influence of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on disturbance and vegetation dynamics in systems composed of grassland, shrubland, and woodland mosaics, which characterize many MTEs. In this theoretical investigation, we performed extensive simulations representing different background rates of vegetation succession and disturbance regime (fire frequency and severity) processes that reflect a broad range of MTE environmental conditions. Varying fire-vegetation feedbacks can lead to different critical points in underlying processes of disturbance and sudden shifts in the vegetation state of grassland–shrubland–woodland systems, despite gradual changes in ecosystem drivers as defined by the environment. Vegetation flammability and disturbance stochasticity effectively modify system behavior, determining its heterogeneity and the existence of alternative stable states in MTEs. Small variations in system flammability and fire recurrence induced by climate or vegetation changes may trigger sudden shifts in the state of such ecosystems. The existence of threshold dynamics, alternative stable states, and contrasting system responses to environmental change has broad implications for MTE management.Funding for this work was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation through the Berkeley Initiative in Global Change Biology

Traits, habitats, and clades: Identifying traits of potential importance to environmental filtering

Environmental filtering is a fundamental process in the ecological assembly of communities. Recently developed phylogenetic tools identify patterns associated with environmental filtering across whole communities. Here we introduce a novel method that allows the detection of traits involved in the environmental filtering of species from specific clades in specific habitat types. Our approach identifies nonindependent trait/habitat/clade (THC) associations and also provides a framework for detecting clearly defined two‐way trait/clade, trait/habitat, and clade/habitat associations. The THC method relies on exact binomial tests and differentiates THC associations resulting from a three‐way interaction from those that are generated by one or more underlying significant two‐way interactions. It can also detect THC associations for which there are no significant two‐way associations (trait/habitat, trait/clade, clade/habitat). To illustrate the THC method, we examine plant pollination and dispersal traits from six habitat types in a fragmented Costa Rican landscape. Results suggest that these traits are not widely important for the environmental filtering of most clades in this landscape, but animal dispersal and insect pollination are involved in the filtering of monocots and the Piperaceae in rain forest understory

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study

Neoliberal Redistributive Policy: The U.S. Net Social Wage in the 21st Century

In this paper, I examine the trends of fiscal transfers between the state and workers during 1959 - 2012 to understand the net impact of redistributive policy in the United States. This paper presents original net social wage data from and analysis based on the replication and extension of Shaikh and Tonak (2002). The paper investigates the appearance of a post-2001 variation in the net social wage data. The positive net social wage in the 21st century is the result of a combination of factors including the growth of income support, healthcare inflation, neoliberal tax reforms, and macroeconomic instability. Growing economic inequality does not appear to alter the results of the net social wage methodology

Filling Key Gaps in Population and Community Ecology

We propose research to fill key gaps in the areas of population and community ecology, based on a National Science Foundation workshop identifying funding priorities for the next 5–10 years. Our vision for the near future of ecology focuses on three core areas: predicting the strength and context-dependence of species interactions across multiple scales; identifying the importance of feedbacks from individual interactions to ecosystem dynamics; and linking pattern with process to understand species coexistence. We outline a combination of theory development and explicit, realistic tests of hypotheses needed to advance population and community ecology

Ulysses at 100

The year 2022 marked the 100th anniversary of the publication of Ulysses. The following reflections express different sentiments and thoughts about the novel that gave T. S. Eliot “all the surprise, delight, and terror that I can require.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.Peer reviewe