This Job Is 'Getting Old:' Measuring Changes in Job Opportunities Using Occupational Age Structure

High- and low-wage occupations are expanding rapidly relative to middle-wage occupations in both the U.S. and the E.U. We study the reallocation of workers from middle-skill occupations towards the tails of the occupational skill distribution by analyzing changes in age structure within and across occupations. Because occupations typically expand by hiring young workers and contract by curtailing such hiring, we posit that growing occupations will get younger while shrinking occupations will 'get old.' After verifying this proposition, we apply this observation to local labor markets in the U.S. to test whether markets that were specialized in middle-skilled occupations in 1980 saw a differential movement of both older and younger workers into occupations at the tails of the skill distribution over the subsequent 25 years. Consistent with aggregate trends, employment in initially middle-skill-intensive labor markets hollowed-out between 1980 and 2005. Employment losses among non-college workers in the middle of the occupational skill distribution were almost entirely countered by employment growth in lower-tail occupations. For college workers, employment losses at the middle were offset in roughly equal measures by gains in the upper- and lower-tails of the occupational skill distribution. But gains at the upper-tail were almost entirely limited to young college workers. Consequently, older college workers are increasingly found in lower-skill, lower-paying occupations.job polarization, occupational structure, age structure, local labor markets, technical change

Inequality and Specialization: The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs in the United States

After a decade in which wages and employment fell precipitously in low-skill occupations and expanded in high-skill occupations, the shape of U.S. earnings and job growth sharply polarized in the 1990s. Employment shares and relative earnings rose in both low and high-skill jobs, leading to a distinct U-shaped relationship between skill levels and employment and wage growth. This paper analyzes the sources of the changing shape of the lower-tail of the U.S. wage and employment distributions. A first contribution is to document a hitherto unknown fact: the twisting of the lower tail is substantially accounted for by a single proximate cause − rising employment and wages in low-education, in-person service occupations. We study the determinants of this rise at the level of local labor markets over the period of 1950 through 2005. Our approach is rooted in a model of changing task specialization in which "routine" clerical and production tasks are displaced by automation. We find that in labor markets that were initially specialized in routine-intensive occupations, employment and wages polarized after 1980, with growing employment and earnings in both high-skill occupations and low-skill service jobs.skill demand, job tasks, inequality, polarization, technological change, occupational choice

The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market

We offer an integrated explanation and empirical analysis of the polarization of U.S. employment and wages between 1980 and 2005, and the concurrent growth of low skill service occupations. We attribute polarization to the interaction between consumer preferences, which favor variety over specialization, and the falling cost of automating routine, codifiable job tasks. Applying a spatial equilibrium model, we derive, test, and confirm four implications of this hypothesis. Local labor markets that were specialized in routine activities differentially adopted information technology, reallocated low skill labor into service occupations (employment polarization), experienced earnings growth at the tails of the distribution (wage polarization), and received inflows of skilled labor.

Early Retirement: Free Choice or Forced Decision

Early retirement is usually explained as a supply-side phenomenon. However, early retirement can also be a demand-side phenomenon arising from a firm's profit maximization behavior. This paper analyzes voluntary and involuntary early retirement based on international microdata covering 19 industrialized countries. The results indicate that generous early retirement provisions of the social security system do not only make voluntary early retirement more attractive for individuals, but also induce firms to encourage more employees to retire early. In particular, firms seem to use early retirement to reduce staff during economic recessions and as a means to circumvent employment protection legislation.early retirement, involuntary early retirement, social security, pensions

On gravitational dressing of renormalization group beta-functions beyond lowest order of perturbation theory

Based on considerations in conformal gauge I derive up to nextleading order a relation between the coefficients of beta-functions in 2D renormalizable field theories before and after coupling to gravity. The result implies a coupling constant dependence of the ratio of both beta-functions beyond leading order.Comment: DESY 94-?, HU Berlin-IEP-94/21, 9 pages, Late

Two and three-point functions in Liouville theory

Based on our generalization of the Goulian-Li continuation in the power of the 2D cosmological term we construct the two and three-point correlation functions for Liouville exponentials with generic real coefficients. As a strong argument in favour of the procedure we prove the Liouville equation of motion on the level of three-point functions. The analytical structure of the correlation functions as well as some of its consequences for string theory are discussed. This includes a conjecture on the mass shell condition for excitations of noncritical strings. We also make a comment concerning the correlation functions of the Liouville field itself.Comment: 15 pages, Latex, Revised version: A sign error in formula (50) is correcte

Analysis of All Dimensionful Parameters Relevant in Gravitational Dressing of Conformal Theories

Starting from a covariant and background independent definition of normal ordered vertex operators we give an alternative derivation of the KPZ relation between conformal dimensions and their gravitational dressed partners. With our method we are able to study for arbitrary genus the dependence of N-point functions on all dimensionful parameters. Implications for the interpretation of gravitational dressed dimensions are discussed.Comment: 11 page

Technology Transfer at the Department of Energy Laboratories -Selected Case Studies from the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory

The U.S. Department of Energy has, by transfer from the U.S. Energy and Research Development Administration, continued the policy of programs for dissemination of information. By the language of the charter, this extends to scientific, technical and practical information. Thus, DOE has a statutory responsibility to ensure full and widespread transfer of its technology. Each Laboratory conducts its own Technology Transfer Program as an integral part of the National Program, and the activities of the Laboratories are directed towards the National Goals. Because of specific and sometimes different needs in the various geographical regions and the different styles of technology transfer, the methods used by each DOE Laboratory to achieve technology transfer vary. This paper describes the DOE Laboratory Technology Transfer Programs and, in general terms, some of the activities of the various participants. In addition, a discussion of some of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory\u27s accomplishments in technology transfer is presented

The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets

Trade and inequality in Europe and the US

The share of low-income countries in global exports nearly tripled between 1990 and 2015, driven largely by the rapid emergence of China as an exporting powerhouse. While research in economics had long acknowledged that trade with lower-income countries could raise income inequality in Europe and the US, empirical estimates indicated only a modest contribution of trade to growing national skill premia. However, if workers are not highly mobile across firms, industries and locations, then the unequal impacts of trade can manifest along different margins. Recent evidence from countries across Europe and the US shows that growing import competition from China differentially reduced earnings and employment rates for workers in more trade-exposed industries, and for the residents of more trade-exposed geographic regions. These adverse impacts were often largest for lower-skilled individuals. We show that domestic manufacturing employment declined much more in countries that saw a large growth of net imports from China (such as the UK and the US), than in countries that maintained relatively balanced trade with China (such as Germany and Switzerland). Drawing on a new analysis for the UK, we further show that trade with China contributed to job loss in manufacturing, but also to substantial declines in consumer prices. However, while the adverse labour market impacts were concentrated on specific groups of workers and regions, the consumer benefits from trade were widely dispersed in the population, and appear similarly large for high-income and low-income households. Globalisation has thus created pockets of losers, and recent evidence indicates that in addition to financial losses, residents of regions with greater exposure to import competition also suffer from higher crime rates, a deterioration of health outcomes, and a dissolution of traditional family structures. We argue that new import tariffs such as those imposed by the US in 2018 and 2019 are unlikely to help the losers from globalisation. Instead, displaced workers may be better supported by a combination of transfers to avert financial hardship, skills training that facilitate reintegration into the labour market, and place-based policies that stimulate job creation in depressed location