Knight-Walras equilibria

Beißner P, Riedel F. Knight-Walras equilibria. Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers. Vol 558. Bielefeld: Center for Mathematical Economics; 2016.Knightian uncertainty leads naturally to nonlinear expectations. We introduce a corresponding equilibrium concept with sublinear prices and establish their existence. In general, such equilibria lead to Pareto inefficiency and coincide with Arrow-Debreu equilibria only if the values of net trades are ambiguity-free in the mean. Without aggregate uncertainty, inefficiencies arise generically. We introduce a constrained efficiency concept, uncertainty-neutral efficiency and show that Knight-Walras equilibrium allocations are efficient in this constrained sense. Arrow-Debreu equilibria turn out to be non-robust with respect to the introduction of Knightian uncertainty

NCDs in low and middle-income countries - assessing the capacity of health systems to respond to population needs

Daniel Reidpath - ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-0420 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8796-0420https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-14-S2-S114S

Recurrent episodes of injury in children : an Australian cohort study

Objective The aim of the present study was to compare sociodemographic characteristics of children with single versus recurrent episodes of injury and provide contemporary evidence for Australian injury prevention policy development. Methods Participants were identified from the Environments for Healthy Living: Griffith Birth Cohort Study 2006-11 (n≤2692). Demographic data were linked to the child's hospital emergency and admissions data from birth to December 2013. Data were dichotomised in two ways: (1) injured or non-injured; and (2) single or recurrent episodes of injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used for analysis. Results The adjusted model identified two factors significantly associated with recurrent episodes of injury in children aged 0.1). Conclusion National priorities should include targeted programs addressing the higher odds of recurrent episodes of injury experienced by children aged <3 years with younger mothers or those injured in the first 18 months of life. What is known about the topic? Children who experience recurrent episodes of injury are at greater risk of serious or irrecoverable harm, particularly when repeat trauma occurs in the early years of life. What does the paper add? The present study identifies key factors associated with recurrent episodes of injury in young Australian children. This is imperative to inform evidence-based national injury prevention policy development in line with the recent expiry of the National Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion Plan: 2004-2014. What are the implications for practitioners? Injury prevention efforts need to target the increased injury risk experienced by families from lower socioeconomic backgrounds and, as a priority, children under 3 years of age with younger mothers and children who are injured in the first 18 months of life. These families require access to education programs, resources, equipment and support, particularly in the child's early years. These programs could be provided as part of the routine paediatric and child health visits available to families after their child's birth or incorporated into hospital and general practitioner injury treatment plans

Impact of participant attrition on child injury outcome estimates : a longitudinal birth cohort study in Australia

Background Longitudinal research is subject to participant attrition. Systemic differences between retained participants and those lost to attrition potentially bias prevalence of outcomes, as well as exposure-outcome associations. This study examines the impact of attrition on the prevalence of child injury outcomes and the association between sociodemographic factors and child injury. Methods Participants were recruited as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) birth cohort study. Baseline data were drawn from maternal surveys. Child injury outcome data were extracted from hospital records, 2006-2013. Participant attrition status was assessed up to 2014. Rates of injury-related episodes of care were calculated, taking into account exposure time and Poisson regression was performed to estimate exposure-outcome associations. Results Of the 2222 participating families, 799 families (36.0%) had complete follow-up data. Those with incomplete data included 137 (6.2%) who withdrew, 308 (13.8%) were lost to follow-up and 978 families (44.0%) who were partial/non-responders. Families of lower socioeconomic status were less likely to have complete follow-up data (p<0.05). Systematic differences in attrition did not result in differential child injury outcomes or significant differences between the attrition and non-attrition groups in risk factor effect estimates. Participants who withdrew were the only group to demonstrate differences in child injury outcomes. Conclusion This research suggests that even with considerable attrition, if the proportion of participants who withdraw is minimal, overall attrition is unlikely to affect the population prevalence estimate of child injury or measures of association between sociodemographic factors and child injury

The rural bite in population pyramids: what are the implications for responsiveness of health systems in middle income countries?

BackgroundHealth services can only be responsive if they are designed to service the needs of the population at hand. In many low and middle income countries, the rate of urbanisation can leave the profile of the rural population quite different from the urban population. As a consequence, the kinds of services required for an urban population may be quite different from that required for a rural population. This is examined using data from the South East Asia Community Observatory in rural Malaysia and contrasting it with the national Malaysia population profile.MethodsCensus data were collected from 10,373 household and the sex and age of household members was recorded. Approximate Malaysian national age and sex profiles were downloaded from the US Census Bureau. The population pyramids, and the dependency and support ratios for the whole population and the SEACO sub-district population are compared.ResultsBased on the population profiles and the dependency ratios, the rural sub-district shows need for health services in the under 14 age group similar to that required nationally. In the older age group, however, the rural sub-district shows twice the need for services as the national data indicate.ConclusionThe health services needs of an older population will tend towards chronic conditions, rather than the typically acute conditions of childhood. The relatively greater number of older people in the rural population suggest a very different health services mix need. Community based population monitoring provides critical information to inform health systems

Cohorts and community: A case study of community engagement in the establishment of a health and demographic surveillance site in Malaysia

Background: Community engagement is an increasingly important requirement of public health research and plays an important role in the informed consent and recruitment process. However, there is very little guidance about how it should be done, the indicators for assessing effectiveness of the community engagement process and the impact it has on recruitment, retention, and ultimately on the quality of the data collected as part of longitudinal cohort studies. Methods: An instrumental case study approach, with data from field notes, policy documents, unstructured interviews, and focus group discussions with key community stakeholders and informants, was used to explore systematically the implementation and outcomes of the community engagement strategy for recruitment of an entire community into a demographic and health surveillance site in Malaysia. Results: For a dynamic cohort, community engagement needs to be an ongoing process. The community engagement process has likely helped to facilitate the current response rate of 85% in the research communities. The case study highlights the importance of systematic documentation of the community engagement process to ensure an understanding of the effects of the research on recruitment and the community. Conclusions: A critical lesson from the case study data is the importance of relationships in the recruitment process for large population-based studies, and the need for ongoing documentation and analysis of the impact of cumulative interactions between research and community engagement. © 2014 Pascale Allotey et al

The rural bite in population pyramids: what are the implications for responsiveness of health systems in middle income countries?

Daniel Reidpath - ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-0420 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8796-0420Background Health services can only be responsive if they are designed to service the needs of the population at hand. In many low and middle income countries, the rate of urbanisation can leave the profile of the rural population quite different from the urban population. As a consequence, the kinds of services required for an urban population may be quite different from that required for a rural population. This is examined using data from the South East Asia Community Observatory in rural Malaysia and contrasting it with the national Malaysia population profile. Methods Census data were collected from 10,373 household and the sex and age of household members was recorded. Approximate Malaysian national age and sex profiles were downloaded from the US Census Bureau. The population pyramids, and the dependency and support ratios for the whole population and the SEACO sub-district population are compared. Results Based on the population profiles and the dependency ratios, the rural sub-district shows need for health services in the under 14 age group similar to that required nationally. In the older age group, however, the rural sub-district shows twice the need for services as the national data indicate. Conclusion The health services needs of an older population will tend towards chronic conditions, rather than the typically acute conditions of childhood. The relatively greater number of older people in the rural population suggest a very different health services mix need. Community based population monitoring provides critical information to inform health systems.https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-14-S2-S814S

Cohorts and community: a case study of community engagement in the establishment of a health and demographic surveillance site in Malaysia

Daniel Reidpath - ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-0420 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8796-0420Background Community engagement is an increasingly important requirement of public health research and plays an important role in the informed consent and recruitment process. However, there is very little guidance about how it should be done, the indicators for assessing effectiveness of the community engagement process and the impact it has on recruitment, retention, and ultimately on the quality of the data collected as part of longitudinal cohort studies. Methods An instrumental case study approach, with data from field notes, policy documents, unstructured interviews, and focus group discussions with key community stakeholders and informants, was used to explore systematically the implementation and outcomes of the community engagement strategy for recruitment of an entire community into a demographic and health surveillance site in Malaysia. Results For a dynamic cohort, community engagement needs to be an ongoing process. The community engagement process has likely helped to facilitate the current response rate of 85% in the research communities. The case study highlights the importance of systematic documentation of the community engagement process to ensure an understanding of the effects of the research on recruitment and the community. Conclusions A critical lesson from the case study data is the importance of relationships in the recruitment process for large population-based studies, and the need for ongoing documentation and analysis of the impact of cumulative interactions between research and community engagement.https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v7.231767pubpub

Addressing non-communicable diseases in Malaysia: an integrative process of systems and community

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors in Malaysia have risen substantially in the last two decades. The Malaysian Ministry of Health responded by implementing, "The National Strategic Plan for Non-Communicable Diseases (NSP-NCD) 2010-2014", and the "NCD Prevention 1Malaysia" (NCDP-1M) programme. This paper outlines the primary health system context in which the NCDP-1M is framed. We also discuss the role of community in facilitating the integration of this programme, and outline some of the key challenges in addressing the sustainability of the plan over the next few years. The paper thus provides an analysis of an integration of a programme that involved a multi-sectoral approach with the view to contributing to a broader discourse on the development of responsive health systems