Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron. After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the na\"ive persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposedComment: Energy (2012)

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Pengaruh Pelatihan dan Disiplin Kerja terhadap Kinerja Pegawai pada Kantor Dinas Perindustrian dan Perdagangan (Disperindag) Pematangsiantar

Adapun rumusan masalah penelitian ini adalah bagaimana pengaruh pelatihan, disiplin kerja terhadap kinerja pegawai pada Kantor Dinas Perindustrian dan Perdagangan (DISPERINDAG) Pematangsianta. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan desain penelitian kepustakaan dan lapangan kerja. seluruh pegawai Kantor Dinas Perindustrian dan Perdagangan (DISPERINDAG) Pematangsiantar yang berjumlah 34 orang. Mengingat populasi kurang dari 100 orang maka penulis menggunakan semua pegawai Kantor Dinas Perindustrian dan Perdagangan (DISPERINDAG) Pematangsiantar untuk diteliti. Jenis data kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Sumber data penelitian ini adalah data primer dan data sekunder. Pengumpulan data dilakukan kuesioner, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Teknik analisis yang menggunakan deskriptif kualitatif dan dekiptif kuantitatif.Hasil analisis regresi adalah = 13,415 + 0,817X1 + 1,582X2, artinya terdapat pengaruh yang positif antara pelatihan (X1) dan disiplin kerja (X2) terhadap kinerja pegawai (Y) pada.hasil analisis korelasi diperoleh nilai r = 0,689, yang artinya terdapat hubungan yang kuat dan positif antara pelatihan, disiplin kerja dengan kinerja pegawai. Kinerja pegawai dijelaskan oleh pelatihan dan disiplin kerja sebesar 47,5%. Hipotesis penelitian H0 ditolak, artinya pelatihan dan disiplin kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja pegawai pada Kantor DISPERINDAG Pematangsiantar secara simultan maupun parsial

Population Dynamics and Niche Distribution of Uropathogenic Escherichia coli during Acute and Chronic Urinary Tract Infection ▿ †

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) have complex dynamics, with uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), the major causative agent, capable of colonization from the urethra to the kidneys in both extracellular and intracellular niches while also producing chronic persistent infections and frequent recurrent disease. In mouse and human bladders, UPEC invades the superficial epithelium, and some bacteria enter the cytoplasm to rapidly replicate into intracellular bacterial communities (IBCs) comprised of ∼104 bacteria each. Through IBC formation, UPEC expands in numbers while subverting aspects of the innate immune response. Within 12 h of murine bladder infection, half of the bacteria are intracellular, with 3 to 700 IBCs formed. Using mixed infections with green fluorescent protein (GFP) and wild-type (WT) UPEC, we discovered that each IBC is clonally derived from a single bacterium. Genetically tagged UPEC and a multiplex PCR assay were employed to investigate the distribution of UPEC throughout urinary tract niches over time. In the first 24 h postinfection (hpi), the fraction of tags dramatically decreased in the bladder and kidney, while the number of CFU increased. The percentage of tags detected at 6 hpi correlated to the number of IBCs produced, which closely matched a calculated multinomial distribution based on IBC clonality. The fraction of tags remaining thereafter depended on UTI outcome, which ranged from resolution of infection with or without quiescent intracellular reservoirs (QIRs) to the development of chronic cystitis as defined by persistent bacteriuria. Significantly more tags remained in mice that developed chronic cystitis, arguing that during the acute stages of infection, a higher number of IBCs precedes chronic cystitis than precedes QIR formation