Commercial AI, Conflict, and Moral Responsibility: A theoretical analysis and practical approach to the moral responsibilities associated with dual-use AI technology

This paper presents a theoretical analysis and practical approach to the moral responsibilities when developing AI systems for non-military applications that may nonetheless be used for conflict applications. We argue that AI represents a form of crossover technology that is different from previous historical examples of dual- or multi-use technology as it has a multiplicative effect across other technologies. As a result, existing analyses of ethical responsibilities around dual-use technologies do not necessarily work for AI systems. We instead argue that stakeholders involved in the AI system lifecycle are morally responsible for uses of their systems that are reasonably foreseeable. The core idea is that an agent's moral responsibility for some action is not necessarily determined by their intentions alone; we must also consider what the agent could reasonably have foreseen to be potential outcomes of their action, such as the potential use of a system in conflict even when it is not designed for that. In particular, we contend that it is reasonably foreseeable that: (1) civilian AI systems will be applied to active conflict, including conflict support activities, (2) the use of civilian AI systems in conflict will impact applications of the law of armed conflict, and (3) crossover AI technology will be applied to conflicts that fall short of armed conflict. Given these reasonably foreseeably outcomes, we present three technically feasible actions that developers of civilian AIs can take to potentially mitigate their moral responsibility: (a) establishing systematic approaches to multi-perspective capability testing, (b) integrating digital watermarking in model weight matrices, and (c) utilizing monitoring and reporting mechanisms for conflict-related AI applications.Comment: 9 page

Effects of Causal Determinism on Causal Learning Trajectories

Research on causal learning suggests that people are capable of learning nondeterministic causal relations, but might expectcausal relations to be deterministic in certain contexts. In two experiments, we demonstrated that peoples expectations ofcausal determinism are context-sensitive and can influence causal judgments in a sequential learning task. When the datawere deterministic (100% success) and participants expected the cause to be deterministic, their causal judgments wereat ceiling. When participants expectations were nondeterministic, causal ratings increased with accumulating positiveevidence. When the data were probabilistic (75% success), participants exhibited a high violation-of-expectation effectupon seeing the first failed event when they expected the causal relation to be deterministic, and much less so whentheir expectation was nondeterministic. We built a simple Bayesian model to explain participants violation-of-expectationeffect as a selection between two distinct hypotheses: that the causal relation in question is deterministic, and that it isnondeterministic

Causal Pluralism in Philosophy: Empirical Challenges and Alternative Proposals

An increasing number of arguments for causal pluralism invoke empirical psychological data. Different aspects of causal cognition-specifically, causal perception and causal inference-are thought to involve distinct cognitive processes and representations, and they thereby distinctively support transference and dependency theories of causation, respectively. We argue that this dualistic picture of causal concepts arises from methodological differences, rather than from an actual plurality of concepts. Hence, philosophical causal pluralism is not particularly supported by the empirical data. Serious engagement with cognitive science reveals that the connection between psychological concepts of causation and philosophical notions is substantially more complicated than is traditionally presumed

Causal Pluralism in Philosophy: Empirical Challenges and Alternative Proposals

An increasing number of arguments for causal pluralism invoke empirical psychological data. Different aspects of causal cognition-specifically, causal perception and causal inference-are thought to involve distinct cognitive processes and representations, and they thereby distinctively support transference and dependency theories of causation, respectively. We argue that this dualistic picture of causal concepts arises from methodological differences, rather than from an actual plurality of concepts. Hence, philosophical causal pluralism is not particularly supported by the empirical data. Serious engagement with cognitive science reveals that the connection between psychological concepts of causation and philosophical notions is substantially more complicated than is traditionally presumed

Dynamic Certification for Autonomous Systems

Autonomous systems are often deployed in complex sociotechnical environments, such as public roads, where they must behave safely and securely. Unlike many traditionally engineered systems, autonomous systems are expected to behave predictably in varying "open world" environmental contexts that cannot be fully specified formally. As a result, assurance about autonomous systems requires us to develop new certification methods and mathematical tools that can bound the uncertainty engendered by these diverse deployment scenarios, rather than relying on static tools

Crack Detection in an Aluminium Oxide Grinding Wheel by Impact Hammer Tests

Grinding is widely used as the last step of the manufacturing process when a good surface finish and precise dimensional tolerances are required. However, if the grinding wheels have cracks, they may lead to a hazardous working environment and produce poor tolerance in machined products. Therefore, grinding wheels should be inspected for cracks before being mounted onto the machine. In this study, a novel method of finding possible internal cracks in the aluminium oxide grinding wheel will be explored by examining the natural frequency and displacement of wheels using an impact hammer testing method. Grinding wheels were cracked into two segments using a three-point bend fixture and then bonded intentionally to simulate cracks. The impact hammer test indicated that cracks in the grinding wheels caused a drop in natural vibration frequency and an increase in the maximum displacement of the accelerometer sensors

FUSE Measurements of Interstellar Fluorine

The source of fluorine is not well understood, although core-collapse supernovae, Wolf-Rayet stars, and asymptotic giant branch stars have been suggested. A search for evidence of the nu process during Type II supernovae is presented. Absorption from interstellar F I is seen in spectra of HD 208440 and HD 209339A acquired with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer. In order to extract the column density for F I from the line at 954 A, absorption from H2 has to be modeled and then removed. Our analysis indicates that for H2 column densities less than about 3 x 10^20 cm^-2, the amount of F I can be determined from lambda 954. For these two sight lines, there is no clear indication for enhanced F abundances resulting from the nu process in a region shaped by past supernovae.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap