Parameter Estimation of Sigmoid Superpositions: Dynamical System Approach

Superposition of sigmoid function over a finite time interval is shown to be equivalent to the linear combination of the solutions of a linearly parameterized system of logistic differential equations. Due to the linearity with respect to the parameters of the system, it is possible to design an effective procedure for parameter adjustment. Stability properties of this procedure are analyzed. Strategies shown in earlier studies to facilitate learning such as randomization of a learning sequence and adding specially designed disturbances during the learning phase are requirements for guaranteeing convergence in the learning scheme proposed.Comment: 30 pages, 7 figure

Adaptive Critic Designs

We discuss a variety of adaptive critic designs (ACDs) for neurocontrol. These are suitable for learning in noisy, nonlinear, and nonstationary environments. They have common roots as generalizations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Our discussion of these origins leads to an explanation of three design families: heuristic dynamic programming, dual heuristic programming, and globalized dual heuristic programming (GDHP). The main emphasis is on DHP and GDHP as advanced ACDs. We suggest two new modifications of the original GDHP design that are currently the only working implementations of GDHP. They promise to be useful for many engineering applications in the areas of optimization and optimal control. Based on one of these modifications, we present a unified approach to all ACDs. This leads to a generalized training procedure for ACD

Approximation with Random Bases: Pro et Contra

In this work we discuss the problem of selecting suitable approximators from families of parameterized elementary functions that are known to be dense in a Hilbert space of functions. We consider and analyze published procedures, both randomized and deterministic, for selecting elements from these families that have been shown to ensure the rate of convergence in $L_2$ norm of order $O(1/N)$, where $N$ is the number of elements. We show that both randomized and deterministic procedures are successful if additional information about the families of functions to be approximated is provided. In the absence of such additional information one may observe exponential growth of the number of terms needed to approximate the function and/or extreme sensitivity of the outcome of the approximation to parameters. Implications of our analysis for applications of neural networks in modeling and control are illustrated with examples.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0905.067

Conservative Thirty Calendar Day Stock Prediction Using a Probabilistic Neural Network

We describe a system that predicts significant short-term price movement in a single stock utilizing conservative strategies. We use preprocessing techniques, then train a probabilistic neural network to predict only price gains large enough to create a significant profit opportunity. Our primary objective is to limit false predictions (known in the pattern recognition literature as false alarms). False alarms are more significant than missed opportunities, because false alarms acted upon lead to losses. We can achieve false alarm rates as low as 5.7% with the correct system design and parameterization