Forecasting Capacity of ARIMA Models; A Study on Croatian Industrial Production and its Sub-sectors

As one of the most important indicator for monitoring the production in industry as well as for directing investment decisions, industrial production plays important role within growth perspectives. Not only does the composition and/or fluctuation of the goods produced indicate the course of economic activity but it also reflects the changes in cyclical development of the economy thereby providing opportunity to macro-manage with early signs of (short-term) turning-points and (long-term) trend variations. In this paper, we compare univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of the Croatian industrial production and its subsectors in order to evaluate their forecasting features within short and long-term data evolution. The aim of this study is not to forecast industrial production but to analyze the out-of-sample predictive performance of ARIMA models on aggregated and disaggregated level inside different forecasting horizons. Our results suggest that ARIMA models do perform very well over the whole rage of the prediction horizons. It is mainly because univariate models often improve the predictive ability of their single component over the short horizons. In that manner ARIMA modelling could be used at least as a benchmark for more complex forecasting methods in predicting the movements of industrial production in Croatia

Usporedba rezultata testiranja Okunovog zakona za Hrvatsku i Slovačku

With the publication of the work “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance” (Okun, 1962), the concept of Okun’s law became an important part of global macroeconomic issues. The empirically determined connection between the national product and unemployment, which is manifested through Okun’s law, belongs to a fundamental part of economic empiricism. Gross domestic product and unemployment are among the main macroeconomic variables that reflect the movement of a country’s economy. The countries we observe in this paper went through a transition period in the 1990s, namely a period of great economic, institutional and economic changes. Precisely because of these changes, we are interested in comparing the Slovak and Croatian economies and testing Okun’s law. The aim of this paper is to show whether Okun’s law is valid for Croatia and Slovakia, or whether there is a correlation between the observed variables for these countries. The final purpose of the paper is to show whether there are similarities between the two observed economies when it comes to Okun’s law. We will show this similarity based on the analysis of data for the period from 2000 to 2018 using vector autoregression. The results of the research have been presented at the end of the paper and they are related to the implications of economic policy in the sphere of the labour market that directly affect economic growth and development.Objavom djela „Potential GNP: its measurement and significance“ (Okun, 1962) koncept Okunova zakona postaje važan dio globalne makroekonomske problematike. Empirijski utvrđena povezanost nacionalnog proizvoda i nezaposlenosti koja se očituje kroz Okunov zakon temeljnim dijelom pripada ekonomskoj empiriji. Bruto domaći proizvod i nezaposlenost su među glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje prikazuju kretanje gospodarstva jedne zemlje. Zemlje koje promatramo u ovome radu su 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća prošle kroz tranzicijsko razdoblje odnosno razdoblje velikih gospodarskih, institucionalnih i gospodarskih promjena. Upravo zbog tih promjena zanimljiva nam je usporedba slovačkoga i hrvatskoga gospodarstva te testiranje Okunova zakona. Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati vrijedi li Okunov zakon za Hrvatsku i Slovačku, odnosno postoji li međusobna povezanost promatranih varijabli za te zemlje. Svrha rada je prikazati postoje li sličnosti između dva promatrana gospodarstva kada je u pitanju Okunov zakon. Ta sličnost će se prikazati na temelju analize podataka za razdoblje od 2000. do 2018. godine primjenom vektorske autoregresije. Na kraju rada prikazani su rezultati istraživanja te su povezani s implikacijama ekonomske politike u sferi tržišta rada koje izravno utječu na ekonomski rast i razvoj

Usporedba rezultata testiranja Okunovog zakona za Hrvatsku i Slovačku

With the publication of the work “Potential GNP: its measurement and significance” (Okun, 1962), the concept of Okun’s law became an important part of global macroeconomic issues. The empirically determined connection between the national product and unemployment, which is manifested through Okun’s law, belongs to a fundamental part of economic empiricism. Gross domestic product and unemployment are among the main macroeconomic variables that reflect the movement of a country’s economy. The countries we observe in this paper went through a transition period in the 1990s, namely a period of great economic, institutional and economic changes. Precisely because of these changes, we are interested in comparing the Slovak and Croatian economies and testing Okun’s law. The aim of this paper is to show whether Okun’s law is valid for Croatia and Slovakia, or whether there is a correlation between the observed variables for these countries. The final purpose of the paper is to show whether there are similarities between the two observed economies when it comes to Okun’s law. We will show this similarity based on the analysis of data for the period from 2000 to 2018 using vector autoregression. The results of the research have been presented at the end of the paper and they are related to the implications of economic policy in the sphere of the labour market that directly affect economic growth and development.Objavom djela „Potential GNP: its measurement and significance“ (Okun, 1962) koncept Okunova zakona postaje važan dio globalne makroekonomske problematike. Empirijski utvrđena povezanost nacionalnog proizvoda i nezaposlenosti koja se očituje kroz Okunov zakon temeljnim dijelom pripada ekonomskoj empiriji. Bruto domaći proizvod i nezaposlenost su među glavnim makroekonomskim varijablama koje prikazuju kretanje gospodarstva jedne zemlje. Zemlje koje promatramo u ovome radu su 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća prošle kroz tranzicijsko razdoblje odnosno razdoblje velikih gospodarskih, institucionalnih i gospodarskih promjena. Upravo zbog tih promjena zanimljiva nam je usporedba slovačkoga i hrvatskoga gospodarstva te testiranje Okunova zakona. Cilj ovoga rada je prikazati vrijedi li Okunov zakon za Hrvatsku i Slovačku, odnosno postoji li međusobna povezanost promatranih varijabli za te zemlje. Svrha rada je prikazati postoje li sličnosti između dva promatrana gospodarstva kada je u pitanju Okunov zakon. Ta sličnost će se prikazati na temelju analize podataka za razdoblje od 2000. do 2018. godine primjenom vektorske autoregresije. Na kraju rada prikazani su rezultati istraživanja te su povezani s implikacijama ekonomske politike u sferi tržišta rada koje izravno utječu na ekonomski rast i razvoj

Green GDP: an analyses for developing and developed countries

In the push for more sustainable and greener progress, faster economic growth is no longer a priority. Is this true? There is a broad agreement that global society should strive for a higher standard of human wellbeing that is equitably shared and sustainable. Motivations for such plight are numerous; from economic (GDP measure is dangerously inadequate measure of quality of life since it counts what we produce and consume, but ignores social costs, environmental outcomes and income inequality), ecological (public is getting increasingly concerned with depleted natural resources and polluted environment, and other ecological issues), philosophical (human appetites and the population growth render non-market wellbeing measures to confront it with the society’s material standard of living), political (the concept of so-called green growth is generating diversity in positions, from enthusiastic to cautious, for it can be an opportunity, but also a risk that disfavours one country on international level) to even methodological questions (the lack of recognized methodological principles that would be the basis for reliable statistical data, thus an accurate accounting and valuation system of economic growth and development)

A new approach to measuring green gdp: a cross-country analysis

While the gross national/domestic product (GNP/GDP) index is a highly reliable indicator that reflects economic performance of a country, it still largely ignores the depreciation of assets, non-market economy and especially the damages to the environment caused by growth. Environmental sustainability of economic growth has come to be recognized as one of the most important pillars of sustainable growth and development. In order to tackle many challenges of the so-called green growth and sustainable development we try to build a new/alternative Green GDP indicator that should give us a clearer perspective of the consequences of economic progress by offering a new approach in quantifying the cost of ecological and environmental degradation. The indicator reviews economic growth through the environmental prism without speculating on how economic and social trends will evolve and how these developments will guide policy making in the years to come. We are well conscious that this indicator cannot ideally reflect the genuine status and improvement of national output, however, we see it as an attempt to encourage further discussions on the green growth in a diverse range of developing and developed countries. The results reveal a necessity for a new synergy between economic and environmental concepts, hence this study should be seen as an opportunity, not an obstacle for equitable and sustainable growth/development prospects

Extinction learning alters the neural representation of conditioned fear

Extinction learning is a primary means by which conditioned associations to threats are controlled and is a model system for emotion dysregulation in anxiety disorders. Recent work has called for new approaches to track extinction-related changes in conditioned stimulus (CS) representations. We applied a multivariate analysis to previously -collected functional magnetic resonance imaging data on extinction learning, in which healthy young adult participants (N = 43; 21 males, 22 females) encountered dynamic snake and spider CSs while passively navigating 3D virtual environments. We used representational similarity analysis to compare voxel-wise activation t-statistic maps for the shock-reinforced CS (CS+) from the late phase of fear acquisition to the early and late phases of extinction learning within subjects. These patterns became more dissimilar from early to late extinction in a priori regions of interest: subgenual and dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus, amygdala and hippocampus. A whole-brain searchlight analysis revealed similar findings in the insula, mid-cingulate cortex, ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, somatosensory cortex, cerebellum, and visual cortex. High state anxiety attenuated extinction-related changes to the CS+ patterning in the amygdala, which suggests an enduring threat representation. None of these effects generalized to an unreinforced control cue, nor were they evident in traditional univariate analyses. Our approach extends previous neuroimaging work by emphasizing how evoked neural patterns change from late acquisition through phases of extinction learning, including those in brain regions not traditionally implicated in animal models. Finally, the findings provide additional support for a role of the amygdala in anxiety-related persistence of conditioned fears

Do cannabis users reduce their THC dosages when using more potent cannabis products? A review.

Higher potency cannabis products are associated with higher risks of negative physical and psychological outcomes. The US cannabis industry has opposed any restrictions on THC levels, arguing that people titrate their THC doses when consuming higher potency products. To review research on the degree to which people who use cannabis for recreational purposes can and do titrate their THC doses. A systematic search was conducted for studies published from 1973 to 2020. We included (1) experimental laboratory studies on dose titration of cannabis products that varied in THC content; (2) observational studies on the use of more potent products; and (3) surveys on whether cannabis users titrate when using more potent products. In some experiments, there were inverse associations between the THC content and the amount smoked and smoking topography, while others indicated higher doses consumed and psychological and physiological effects observed. Findings of observational studies of regular cannabis users were more equivocal. In some surveys, cannabis users reported that they use less when using more potent products, but in other surveys, persons who used more potent cannabis had more adverse effects of use. There is some evidence from experimental studies that people who use higher potency cannabis for recreational purposes can titrate their THC doses, but less evidence that regular cannabis users do in fact do so. We need much better experimental and epidemiological research to inform the design of regulatory policies to minimize harms from the use of high THC cannabis products

What have been the public health impacts of cannabis legalisation in the USA? A review of evidence on adverse and beneficial effects

Purpose of Review To summarise empirical research on the adverse and beneficial public health impacts of cannabis legalisation in states in the USA. Recent Findings The most consistent finding from surveys of drug use is that the legalisation of medical cannabis has so far not had an effect on rates of use or cannabis use disorders among youth, but it has increased the frequency of use among adult cannabis users. There are conflicting findings on the impact of legalisation of medical and recreational cannabis use on the following: cannabis use disorders in adults, rates of motor vehicle accidents in which the driver was impaired by cannabis, rates of suicide, and opioid-related harms. The legalisation of recreational cannabis use has increased emergency room attendances for cannabis-related medical conditions (acute adverse psychological effects, hyperemesis, and accidental poisoning of children). There is no evidence to date on the impact of medical or recreational legalisation on the prevalence of mental disorders such as psychoses, depression, and anxiety. Summary There is suggestive evidence that cannabis legalisation is associated with a range of public health consequences. However, current evidence is limited in the capacity to confidently conclude that these changes are the result of cannabis legalisation. The impacts on public health may take some years to become apparent