Understanding trade pathways to target biosecurity surveillance

Increasing trends in global trade make it extremely difficult to prevent the entry of all potential invasive species (IS). Establishing early detection strategies thus becomes an important part of the continuum used to reduce the introduction of invasive species. One part necessary to ensure the success of these strategies is the determination of priority survey areas based on invasion pressure. We used a pathway-centred conceptual model of pest invasion to address these questions: what role does global trade play in invasion pressure of plant ecosystems and how could an understanding of this role be used to enhance early detection strategies? We concluded that the relative level of invasion pressure for destination ecosystems can be influenced by the intensity of pathway usage (import volume and frequency), the number and type of pathways with a similar destination, and the number of different ecological regions that serve as the source for imports to the same destination. As these factors increase, pressure typically intensifies because of increasing a) propagule pressure, b) likelihood of transporting pests with higher intrinsic invasion potential, and c) likelihood of transporting pests into ecosystems with higher invasibility. We used maritime containerized imports of live plants into the contiguous U.S. as a case study to illustrate the practical implications of the model to determine hotspot areas of relative invasion pressure for agricultural and forest ecosystems (two ecosystems with high potential invasibility). Our results illustrated the importance of how a pathway-centred model could be used to highlight potential target areas for early detection strategies for IS. Many of the hotspots in agricultural and forest ecosystems were within major U.S. metropolitan areas. Invasion ecologists can utilize pathway-centred conceptual models to a) better understand the role of human-mediated pathways in pest establishment, b) enhance current methodologies for IS risk analysis, and c) develop strategies for IS early detection-rapid response programs

Zonas globais de resistência às plantas para análise de risco fitossanitário

Plant hardiness zones are widely used for selection of perennial plants and for phytosanitary risk analysis. The most widely used definition of plant hardiness zones (United States Department of Agriculture National Arboretum) is based on average annual extreme minimum temperature. There is a need for a global plant hardiness map to standardize the comparison of zones for phytosanitary risk analysis. Two data sets were used to create global hardiness zones: i) Climate Research Unit (CRU) 1973-2002 monthly data set; and ii) the Daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The CRU monthly data set was downscaled to five-minute resolution and a cubic spline was used to convert the monthly values into daily values. The GHCN data were subjected to a number of quality control measures prior to analysis. Least squares regression relationships were developed using GHCN and derived lowest average daily minimum temperature data and average annual extreme minimum temperatures. Error estimate statistics were calculated from the numerical difference between the estimated value for the grid and the station. The mean absolute error for annual extreme minimum temperature was 1.9ºC (3.5ºF) and 2/3 of the stations were classified into the correct zone.Zonas de resistência às plantas, definidas pelo " United States Department of Agriculture National Arboretum" com base na média anual das temperaturas mínimas extremas, são amplamente utilizadas para a seleção de plantas perenes e para a análise de risco fitossanitário. Há necessidade de um mapa global para padronizar a comparação de zonas nas análises de risco fitossanitário. Dois bancos de dados climatológicos foram utilizados para criar tais zonas globais de resistência às plantas: i) conjunto de dados mensais de 1973-2002 da " Climate Research Unit (CRU)" ; e ii) dados climatológicos diários da " Daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)" . Os dados mensais da CRU foram ajustados a uma escala reduzida de resolução de cinco minutos, e um ajuste cúbico foi empregado para converter os dados mensais para diários. Os dados da RDGH foram submetidos a várias medidas de controle de qualidade antes de serem empregados nas análises. Relações de regressão pelo método dos mínimos quadrados foram desenvolvidas usando dados da RDGH, resultando nos mais baixos valores médios diários de temperatura mínima e média anual das temperaturas mínimas extremas. Os erros estatísticos estimados foram calculados a partir da diferença numérica entre os valores estimados para a malha e os observados nas estações climatológicas. O erro médio absoluto para a temperatura mínima extrema anual foi 1,9ºC (3,5ºF), o que possibilitou a classificação de 2/3 das estações dentro das zonas corretas

Synthetic CO emission and the XCOX_{\rm CO} factor of young molecular clouds: a convergence study

The properties of synthetic CO emission from 3D simulations of forming molecular clouds are studied within the SILCC-Zoom project. Since the time scales of cloud evolution and molecule formation are comparable, the simulations include a live chemical network. Two sets of simulations with an increasing spatial resolution (d$x=3.9$ pc to d$x=0.06$ pc) are used to investigate the convergence of the synthetic CO emission, which is computed by post-processing the simulation data with the RADMC-3D radiative transfer code. To determine the excitation conditions, it is necessary to include atomic hydrogen and helium alongside H$_2$, which increases the resulting CO emission by ~7-26 per cent. Combining the brightness temperature of $^{12}$CO and $^{13}$CO, we compare different methods to estimate the excitation temperature, the optical depth of the CO line and hence, the CO column density. An intensity-weighted average excitation temperature results in the most accurate estimate of the total CO mass. When the pixel-based excitation temperature is used to calculate the CO mass, it is over-/underestimated at low/high CO column densities where the assumption that $^{12}$CO is optically thick while $^{13}$CO is optically thin is not valid. Further, in order to obtain a converged total CO luminosity and hence factor, the 3D simulation must have d$x\lesssim0.1$ pc. The evolves over time and differs for the two clouds; yet pronounced differences with numerical resolution are found. Since high column density regions with a visual extinction larger than 3~mag are not resolved for d$x\gtrsim 1$~pc, in this case the H$_2$ mass and CO luminosity both differ significantly from the higher resolution results and the local $X_{\rm CO}$ is subject to strong noise. Our calculations suggest that synthetic CO emission maps are only converged for simulations with d$x\lesssim 0.1$ pc.Comment: 23 pages, 22 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Marburg hemorrhagic fever in Durba and Watsa, Democratic Republic of the Congo: clinical documentation, features of illness, and treatment

The objective of the present study was to describe day of onset and duration of symptoms of Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF), to summarize the treatments applied, and to assess the quality of clinical documentation. Surveillance and clinical records of 77 patients with MHF cases were reviewed. Initial symptoms included fever, headache, general pain, nausea, vomiting, and anorexia (median day of onset, day 1-2), followed by hemorrhagic manifestations (day 5-8+), and terminal symptoms included confusion, agitation, coma, anuria, and shock. Treatment in isolation wards was acceptable, but the quality of clinical documentation was unsatisfactory. Improved clinical documentation is necessary for a basic evaluation of supportive treatment

Risk Factors for Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever, Democratic Republic of the Congo

We conducted two antibody surveys to assess risk factors for Marburg hemorrhagic fever in an area of confirmed Marburg virus transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Questionnaires were administered and serum samples tested for Marburg-specific antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Fifteen (2%) of 912 participants in a general village cross-sectional antibody survey were positive for Marburg immunoglobulin G antibody. Thirteen (87%) of these 15 were men who worked in the local gold mines. Working as a miner (odds ratio [OR] 13.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1 to 62.1) and receiving injections (OR 7.4, 95% CI 1.6 to 33.2) were associated with a positive antibody result. All 103 participants in a targeted antibody survey of healthcare workers were antibody negative. Primary transmission of Marburg virus to humans likely occurred via exposure to a still unidentified reservoir in the local mines. Secondary transmission appears to be less common with Marburg virus than with Ebola virus, the other known filovirus

The western painted turtle genome, a model for the evolution of extreme physiological adaptations in a slowly evolving lineage

Background: We describe the genome of the western painted turtle, Chrysemys picta bellii, one of the most widespread, abundant, and well-studied turtles. We place the genome into a comparative evolutionary context, and focus on genomic features associated with tooth loss, immune function, longevity, sex differentiation and determination, and the species' physiological capacities to withstand extreme anoxia and tissue freezing.Results: Our phylogenetic analyses confirm that turtles are the sister group to living archosaurs, and demonstrate an extraordinarily slow rate of sequence evolution in the painted turtle. The ability of the painted turtle to withstand complete anoxia and partial freezing appears to be associated with common vertebrate gene networks, and we identify candidate genes for future functional analyses. Tooth loss shares a common pattern of pseudogenization and degradation of tooth-specific genes with birds, although the rate of accumulation of mutations is much slower in the painted turtle. Genes associated with sex differentiation generally reflect phylogeny rather than convergence in sex determination functionality. Among gene families that demonstrate exceptional expansions or show signatures of strong natural selection, immune function and musculoskeletal patterning genes are consistently over-represented.Conclusions: Our comparative genomic analyses indicate that common vertebrate regulatory networks, some of which have analogs in human diseases, are often involved in the western painted turtle's extraordinary physiological capacities. As these regulatory pathways are analyzed at the functional level, the painted turtle may offer important insights into the management of a number of human health disorders