Multicenter validation of PIM3 and PIM2 in Brazilian pediatric intensive care units

ObjectiveTo validate the PIM3 score in Brazilian PICUs and compare its performance with the PIM2.MethodsObservational, retrospective, multicenter study, including patients younger than 16 years old admitted consecutively from October 2013 to September 2019. We assessed the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), the discrimination capability (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve – AUROC), and the calibration. To assess the calibration, we used the calibration belt, which is a curve that represents the correlation of predicted and observed values and their 95% Confidence Interval (CI) through all the risk ranges. We also analyzed the performance of both scores in three periods: 2013–2015, 2015–2017, and 2017–2019.Results41,541 patients from 22 PICUs were included. Most patients aged less than 24 months (58.4%) and were admitted for medical conditions (88.6%) (respiratory conditions = 53.8%). Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 5.8%. The median PICU length of stay was three days (IQR, 2–5), and the observed mortality was 1.8% (763 deaths). The predicted mortality by PIM3 was 1.8% (SMR 1.00; 95% CI 0.94–1.08) and by PIM2 was 2.1% (SMR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83–0.96). Both scores had good discrimination (PIM3 AUROC = 0.88 and PIM2 AUROC = 0.89). In calibration analysis, both scores overestimated mortality in the 0%–3% risk range, PIM3 tended to underestimate mortality in medium-risk patients (9%–46% risk range), and PIM2 also overestimated mortality in high-risk patients (70%–100% mortality risk).ConclusionsBoth scores had a good discrimination ability but poor calibration in different ranges, which deteriorated over time in the population studied

Análise de acurácia de diferentes escores de morbimortalidade para pretermos abaixo de 1000g

Submitted by Luis Guilherme Macena ([email protected]) on 2013-04-08T12:59:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado Daniel H S Genu.pdf: 2113375 bytes, checksum: 03b4ce856a84d3fec2b83d9c1e53e63d (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2013-04-08T12:59:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Mestrado Daniel H S Genu.pdf: 2113375 bytes, checksum: 03b4ce856a84d3fec2b83d9c1e53e63d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Fernandes Figueira. Departamento de Ensino. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde da Criança e da Mulher. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrasilINTRODUÇÃO: Atualmente, cada vez maior é o interesse por indicadores para a avaliação de risco de óbito de RNs, principalmente em prematuros. Entretanto, escores como CRIB, CRIB II e SNAPPE II, e outros marcadores como a Troponina Cardíaca ainda não podem ser considerados como bons preditores para essa população. OBJETIVO: Determinar a acurácia de diferentes escores (CRIB, CRIB II e SNAPPE II) e da Troponina Cardíaca como marcadores de mortalidade e sobrevida com sequelas em RNs com peso de nascimento menor de 1000g. MATERIAL E MÉTODOS: Foram incluídos no estudo todos os RNs com peso de nascimento inferior a 1000g nascidos e admitidos na UTIN da Clínica Perinatal de Laranjeiras e do Instituto Fernandes Figueira/FIOCRUZ, no período maio de 2006 a maio de 2011. Foi realizada uma coleta de dados retrospectiva dos dados da gestação, do parto e do nascimento, e da internação até a Alta ou Óbito. Foram realizados testes estatísticos para diferenças de médias (teste t de Student) e de proporções (Qui-quadrado), medidas das áreas abaixo das Curvas ROC (Az) dos escores e Análise de Regressão Logística. RESULTADOS: Os escores CRIB, CRIB II e SNAPPE II são bons preditores de mortalidade em menores de 1000g (Az 0,815; 0,835; 0,834 p-valor<0,001). Contudo, apenas os escores CRIB II e SNAPPE II são bons preditores de sobrevida sem sequelas (Az 0,709 e 0,737 p-valor<0,001). A Troponina Cardíaca positiva aumenta em três vezes o risco de óbito neonatal (OR: 3,15 p-valor: 0,017) e apresentou associação com acidose metabólica (OR: 2,88 p-valor: 0,02), APGAR 5º minuto menor que 7 (OR: 10,06 p-valor: 0,01), PCA (OR: 4,23 p-valor: 0,005) e HIC Graus III e IV (OR: 4,56 p-valor: 0,034). No Modelo de Regressão Logística, observou-se que Sepse Neonatal comprovada (OR: 11,96 p-valor: 0,008), Enterocolite Necrosante (OR: 14,07 p-valor: 0,006) e Hemorragia Intracraniana (OR: 7,95 p-valor: 0,003) aumentam a chance de o RN evoluir ao óbito. Observou-se também que os RNs pequenos para a idade gestacional (OR: 12,35 p-valor: 0,036), do sexo masculino (OR: 8,19 p-valor: 0,005) ou que necessitaram de mais que duas doses de Surfactante exógeno (OR: 8,73 p-valor: 0,012) tiveram mais chance de sobreviver com sequelas. Na Análise de Regressão Logística, apenas o SNAPPE II apresentou associação com os desfechos estudados. CONCLUSÃO: Os escores CRIB, CRIB II e SNAPPE II são bons preditores de mortalidade, e CRIB II e SNAPPE II também se revelaram bons preditores de sobrevida com sequelas. Após a Análise de Regressão Logística, apenas o SNAPPE II demonstrou ter associação com ambos desfechos, sendo considerado o melhor marcador de mortalidade e sobrevida com sequelas para a população de RNs com peso de nascimento menor de 1000g.BACKGROUND: Currently, there is an increasing interest in identify indicators for assessing risk of death in newborns, especially premature infants. Despite known scores as CRIB, CRIB II and SNAPPE II, and anothers as cardiac troponin, none of them are considered as good preditors for this population. OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of different scores (CRIB, CRIB SNAPPE II and II) and cardiac troponin as markers of mortality and survival with sequelae in newborns with birth weight under 1000g. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study included all newborns with birth weight less than 1000g born and admitted to the NICU Perinatal Laranjeiras Clinic and the Fernandes Figueira Institute / FIOCRUZ in the period May 2006 to May 2011. We performed a retrospective data collection of the data of pregnancy, labor and birth, and hospitalization until discharge or death. Statistical tests were performed for differences in means (t-test), and proportions (chi-square test), measuring of area under the ROC curve (AUC) of scores and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Scores CRIB, CRIB II and SNAPPE II are good predictors of mortality in newborns under birth weight under 1000g (AUC 0,815 and 0,835 and 0,834 pvalor< 0,001). However, only the scores SNAPPE II and CRIB II were good performances as predictors of survival with sequelae in our samples (AUC 0,709 and 0,737 p-valor<0,001). Cardiac Troponin positive increases at three times the risk of neonatal death (OR: 3,15 p-valor: 0,017) and was associated with metabolic acidosis (OR: 2,88 p-valor: 0,02), five-minute Apgar score of less than 7 (OR: 10,06 p-valor: 0,01), PDA (OR: 4,23 p-valor: 0,005) and HIC Grades III and IV (OR: 4,56 p-valor: 0,034). In the Logistic Regression Model, it was observed that proven neonatal sepsis (OR = 11.96 p-value: 0.008), necrotizing enterocolitis (OR = 14.07 p-value: 0.006) and intracranial hemorrhage (OR: 7.95 p -value: 0.003) increases the chance of an infant death evolve. It was also observed that the newborns small for gestational age (OR = 12.35 p-value: 0.036), male (OR: 8.19 p-value: 0.005) or who required more than two doses of surfactant exogenous (OR: 8.73 p-value: 0.012) were more likely to survive with sequelae. After logistic regression analysis, only SNAPPE II was associated with the outcomes studied. CONCLUSION: The scores CRIB, CRIB II and II SNAPPE are good predictors of mortality, and CRIB II and II SNAPPE also proved good predictors of survival with sequelae. After logistic regression analysis, only the SNAPPE II demonstrated good association with both outcomes being considered the best marker of mortality and survival with consequences for the population of newborns with birth weight under 1000g

Datasheet1_Multicenter validation of PIM3 and PIM2 in Brazilian pediatric intensive care units.pdf

ObjectiveTo validate the PIM3 score in Brazilian PICUs and compare its performance with the PIM2.MethodsObservational, retrospective, multicenter study, including patients younger than 16 years old admitted consecutively from October 2013 to September 2019. We assessed the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), the discrimination capability (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve – AUROC), and the calibration. To assess the calibration, we used the calibration belt, which is a curve that represents the correlation of predicted and observed values and their 95% Confidence Interval (CI) through all the risk ranges. We also analyzed the performance of both scores in three periods: 2013–2015, 2015–2017, and 2017–2019.Results41,541 patients from 22 PICUs were included. Most patients aged less than 24 months (58.4%) and were admitted for medical conditions (88.6%) (respiratory conditions = 53.8%). Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 5.8%. The median PICU length of stay was three days (IQR, 2–5), and the observed mortality was 1.8% (763 deaths). The predicted mortality by PIM3 was 1.8% (SMR 1.00; 95% CI 0.94–1.08) and by PIM2 was 2.1% (SMR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83–0.96). Both scores had good discrimination (PIM3 AUROC = 0.88 and PIM2 AUROC = 0.89). In calibration analysis, both scores overestimated mortality in the 0%–3% risk range, PIM3 tended to underestimate mortality in medium-risk patients (9%–46% risk range), and PIM2 also overestimated mortality in high-risk patients (70%–100% mortality risk).ConclusionsBoth scores had a good discrimination ability but poor calibration in different ranges, which deteriorated over time in the population studied.</p