Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Species occupying semi-arid and dry regions around the globe face an uncertain future due to increases in the frequency and severity of droughts. In this study we modelled the potential effect of climate change on bat communities within two high-drought risk regions of the world and assessed the magnitude and direction of the predicted shifts in climatic suitability, locating climate change refugia and identifying species at greatest risk of population declines. To do this, we compared climate suitability models for 43 species using three global climate models and three emissions scenarios for current (1950–2000) and future (2061–2080) climates within two regions where droughts are predicted to increase, the Western Palaearctic and Western North America. Our models predicted an overall reduction in bat richness with future climates. Areas projected to support high species richness in the current climate coincided with greatest predicted species loss and greatest future drought risk. For species with the potential to extend their range, high velocity range shifts would be required to keep pace with these changes, particularly in the Western Palaearctic, where additional barriers to movement include seas and areas of high human population density. Predicted refugial zones were limited and occurred in similar areas across continents (montane and high latitude with some coastal areas). The area of climate suitability was predicted to contract for around half of study species, with nine identified as species of conservation concern due to low overlap between current and future modelled ranges. The best-case scenario for bat diversity in semi-arid and dry regions in the future is likely to be reduced species richness, with many species facing rapid range expansion over challenging landscapes to access climatically suitable areas. Conservation of bats in high drought risk regions will likely depend on protection of identified refugia and networks of water sources, as well as global measures to protect biodiversity and human wellbeing, such as reduction in global carbon emissions

Mental Distress among Young People in Inner-Cities:the Resilience, Ethnicity and AdolesCent Mental Health (REACH) study

BACKGROUND: Recent estimates suggest around 14% of 11–16 years in England have a mental health problem. However, we know very little about the extent and nature of mental health problems among diverse groups in densely populated inner cities, where contexts and experiences may differ from the national average. AIMS: To estimate the extent and nature of mental health problems in inner city London, overall and by social group, using data from our school-based accelerated cohort study of adolescent mental health, Resilience, Ethnicity and AdolesCent Mental Health. METHODS: Self-report data on mental health (general mental health, depression, anxiety, self-harm) were analysed (n, 4353; 11–14 years, 85% minority ethnic groups). Mixed models were used to estimate weighted prevalences and adjusted risks of each type of problem, overall and by gender, cohort, ethnic group and free school meals (FSM) status. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of mental health problems was 18.6% (95% CI 16.4% to 20.8%). Each type of mental health problem was more common among girls compared with boys (adjusted risk ratios: mental health problems, 1.33, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.48; depression, 1.52, 1.30 to 1.73; anxiety, 2.09, 1.58 to 2.59, self-harm, 1.40, 1.06 to 1.75). Gender differences were more pronounced in older cohorts compared with the youngest. Mental health problems (1.28, 1.05 to 1.51) and self-harm (1.29, 1.02 to 1.56)—but not depression or anxiety—were more common among those receiving (vs not receiving) FSM. There were many similarities, with some variations, by ethnic group. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent mental health problems and self-harm are common in inner city London. Gender differences in mental health problems may emerge during early adolescence

MTL-CEBPA, a Small Activating RNA Therapeutic Upregulating C/EBP-α, in Patients with Advanced Liver Cancer: A First-in-Human, Multicenter, Open-Label, Phase I Trial.

PURPOSE: Transcription factor C/EBP-α (CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein alpha) acts as a master regulator of hepatic and myeloid functions and multiple oncogenic processes. MTL-CEBPA is a first-in-class small activating RNA oligonucleotide drug that upregulates C/EBP-α. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a phase I, open-label, dose-escalation trial of MTL-CEBPA in adults with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with cirrhosis, or resulting from nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or with liver metastases. Patients received intravenous MTL-CEBPA once a week for 3 weeks followed by a rest period of 1 week per treatment cycle in the dose-escalation phase (3+3 design). RESULTS: Thirty-eight participants have been treated across six dose levels (28-160 mg/m2) and three dosing schedules. Thirty-four patients were evaluable for safety endpoints at 28 days. MTL-CEBPA treatment-related adverse events were not associated with dose, and no maximum dose was reached across the three schedules evaluated. Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events occurred in nine (24%) patients. In 24 patients with HCC evaluable for efficacy, an objective tumor response was achieved in one patient [4%; partial response (PR) for over 2 years] and stable disease (SD) in 12 (50%). After discontinuation of MTL-CEBPA, seven patients were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs); three patients had a complete response with one further PR and two with SD. CONCLUSIONS: MTL-CEBPA is the first saRNA in clinical trials and demonstrates an acceptable safety profile and potential synergistic efficacy with TKIs in HCC. These encouraging phase I data validate targeting of C/EBP-α and have prompted MTL-CEBPA + sorafenib combination studies in HCC

The Nature of the Dietary Protein Impacts the Tissue-to-Diet 15N Discrimination Factors in Laboratory Rats

Due to the existence of isotope effects on some metabolic pathways of amino acid and protein metabolism, animal tissues are 15N-enriched relative to their dietary nitrogen sources and this 15N enrichment varies among different tissues and metabolic pools. The magnitude of the tissue-to-diet discrimination (Δ15N) has also been shown to depend on dietary factors. Since dietary protein sources affect amino acid and protein metabolism, we hypothesized that they would impact this discrimination factor, with selective effects at the tissue level. To test this hypothesis, we investigated in rats the influence of a milk or soy protein-based diet on Δ15N in various nitrogen fractions (urea, protein and non-protein fractions) of blood and tissues, focusing on visceral tissues. Regardless of the diet, the different protein fractions of blood and tissues were generally 15N-enriched relative to their non-protein fraction and to the diet (Δ15N>0), with large variations in the Δ15N between tissue proteins. Δ15N values were markedly lower in tissue proteins of rats fed milk proteins compared to those fed soy proteins, in all sampled tissues except in the intestine, and the amplitude of Δ15N differences between diets differed between tissues. Both between-tissue and between-diet Δ15N differences are probably related to modulations of the relative orientation of dietary and endogenous amino acids in the different metabolic pathways. More specifically, the smaller Δ15N values observed in tissue proteins with milk than soy dietary protein may be due to a slightly more direct channeling of dietary amino acids for tissue protein renewal and to a lower recycling of amino acids through fractionating pathways. In conclusion, the present data indicate that natural Δ15N of tissue are sensitive markers of the specific subtle regional modifications of the protein and amino acid metabolism induced by the protein dietary source

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society