Assessing simulation ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur

Climatic Controls on the Snowmelt Hydrology of the Northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities

Synthesis and Assessment Product

This Report (SAP 4.2) focuses on the thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems. As defined in this Synthesis and Assessment Report, 'an ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon, or where small changes in one or more external conditions produce large and persistent responses in an ecosystem'.Ecological thresholds occur when external factors, positive feedbacks, or nonlinear instabilities in a system cause changes to propagate in a domino-like fashion that is potentially irreversible. This report reviews threshold changes in North American ecosystems that are potentially induced by climatic change and addresses the significant challenges these threshold crossings impose on resource and land managers. Sudden changes to ecosystems and the goods and services they provide are not well understood, but they are extremely important if natural resource managers are to succeed in developing adaptation strategies in a changing world. The report provides an overview of what is known about ecological thresholds and where they are likely to occur. It also identifies those areas where research is most needed to improve knowledge and understand the uncertainties regarding them. The report suggests a suite of potential actions that land and resource managers could use to improve the likelihood of success for the resources they manage, even under conditions of incomplete understanding of what drives thresholds of change and when changes will occur

Seventh Great Plains Wildlife Damage Control Workshop Proceedings

Table of content

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF THE COYOTE LURE OPERATIVE DEVICE

A new device for orally delivering substances to coyotes (Canis latrans) has been under development for approximately 10 years. The development of the coyote lure operative device (CLOD) is described along with some recent field evaluations of the CLOD system. In general, the results of these field tests indicate that the CLOD shows potential and merits further development

Importance of Attractant Qualities for Improving a New Coyote Delivery System

Changes in effectiveness and nontarget species selectivity of a new system for delivering ingestible substances to coyotes (Canis latrans) were examined by systematically varying odor type and quantity used to attract coyotes to the device. The new delivery system\u27s efficacy was comparable to the M-44 in our tests in south Texas. A synthetic lure improved the effectiveness of the delivery system when applied in amounts of 0.10 cc or 0.50 cc. Varying odor type did not increase the incidence of desirable coyote behavior, such as biting, but did increase rates of visitation

Divergent patterns of abundance and age-class structure of headwater stream tadpoles in burned and unburned watersheds

Wildfire is a potential threat to many species with narrow environmental tolerances like the Rocky Mountain tailed frog (Ascaphlls montanlls Mittleman and Myers, 1949), which inhabits a region where the frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase. We compared pre- and post-fire counts of tadpoles in eight streams in northwestem Montana to determine the effects of wildfire on A. montanus. All streams were initially sampled in 2001, 2 years before four of them bumed in a large wildfire, and were resampled during the 2 years follo\ving the fire. Counts of tadpoles were similar in the 1\\\u270 groups of streams before the fire. After the fire, tadpoles were almost twice as abundant in unbumed streams than in bumed streams. The fire seemed to have the greatest negative effect on abundance of age-l tadpoles, which was reflected in the greater variation in same-stream age-class structure compared with those in unbumed streams. Despite the apparent effect on tadpoles, we do not expect the wildfire to be an extirpation threat to populations in the streams that we sampled. Studies spanning a chronosequence of fires, as well as in other areas, are needed to assess the effects of fires on streams with A. montallus and to determine the severity and persistence of these effects