Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011- Working Paper 283

This report summarizes recent trends in large-scale tropical forest clearing identified by FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action). Our analysis includes 27 countries that accounted for 94 percent of clearing during the period 2000–2005. We highlight countries with relatively large changes since 2005, both declines and increases. FORMA produces indicators that track monthly changes in the number of 1-sq.-km. tropical forest parcels that have experienced clearing with high probability. This report and the accompanying spreadsheet databases provide monthly estimates for 27 countries, 280 primary administrative units, and 2,907 secondary administrative units. Countries’ divergent experiences since 2005 have significantly altered their shares of global clearing in some cases. Brazil’s global share fell by 11.2 percentage points from December 2005 to August 2011, while the combined share of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Myanmar increased by 10.8. The diverse patterns revealed by FORMA’s first global survey caution against facile generalizations about forest clearing in the pantropics. During the past five years, the relative scale and pace of clearing have changed across regions, within regions, and within countries. Although the overall trend seems hopeful, it remains to be seen whether the decline in forest clearing will persist as the global economy recovers.

FORMA: Forest Monitoring for Action— Rapid Identification of Pan-tropical Deforestation Using Moderate-Resolution Remotely Sensed Data

Rising concern about carbon emissions from deforestation has led donors to finance UN-REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries), a program that offers direct compensation for forest conservation. Sustainable operation of UN-REDD and other direct-compensation programs will require a transparent, credible, frequently updated system for monitoring deforestation. In this paper, we introduce FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action), a prototype system based on remotely sensed data. We test its accuracy against the best available information on deforestation in Brazil and Indonesia. Our results indicate that publicly available remotely sensed data can support accurate quarterly identification of new deforestation at 1 km spatial resolution. More rapid updates at higher spatial resolution may also be possible. At current resolution, with efficient coding in publicly available software, FORMA should produce global updates on one desktop computer in a few hours. Maps of probable deforestation at 1 km resolution will be accessible with Google Earth and Google Maps, with an open facility for ground-truthing each pixel via photographs and text comments.remote sensing; forest; deforestation; conservation; climate change

Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Indonesia- Working Paper 280

This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demand for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, and local rainfall and terrain slope. Our econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing. We find significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall, and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, and the absence of impact for protected-area status is particularly notable. Our results strongly support the model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia’s financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful force.

From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing- Working Paper 282

In this paper, we develop and illustrate a prototype incentive system for promoting rapid reduction of forest clearing in tropical countries. Our proposed Tropical Forest Protection Fund (TFPF) is a cash-on-delivery system that rewards independently monitored performance without formal contracts. The system responds to forest tenure problems in many countries by dividing incentive payments between national governments, which command the greatest number of instruments that affect forest clearing, and indigenous communities, which often have tenure rights in forested lands. The TFPF incorporates both monetary and reputational incentives, which are calculated quarterly. The monetary incentives are unconditional cash transfers based on measured performance, while the reputational incentives are publicly disclosed, color-coded performance ratings for each country. The incentives include rewards for: (1) exceeding long-run expectations, given a country’s forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Drawing on monthly forest clearing indicators from the new FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action) database, we illustrate a prototype TFPF for eight East Asian countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. A system with identical design principles could be implemented by single or multiple donors for individual or multiple forest proprietors within one or more countries, as well as national or local governments in individual countries, tropical regions, or the global pan-tropics. Our results demonstrate the importance of financial flexibility in the design of the proposed TFPF. Its incentives are calculated to induce a massive, rapid reduction of tropical forest clearing. If that occurs, a TFPF for East Asia will need standby authority for disbursements that may total $10–14 billion annually for the next two decades. This financial burden will not persist, however, because the TFPF is designed to self-liquidate once all recipient countries have achieved clearly specified benchmarks. We estimate that the TFPF can be closed by 2070, with its major financial responsibility discharged by 2040.

Orangulas: effect of scheduled visual enrichment on behavioral and endocrine aspects of a captive orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus)

Captivity may have adverse effects on captive great apes, as they spend much more of their time engaged in foraging and other activities in the wild. Enrichment interventions have the potential to alleviate the adverse effects of captivity by introducing novel stimuli. In orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus), interactive digital enrichment has proven effective at engaging users out of their own free will, in exchange for nothing but the experience. This article reports the results of scheduled visual enrichment in the form of “orangulas”—one-hour long videos of footage consisting mainly of open spaces in different environments, with which the pongid participant could engage at free will. The efficacy of the orangulas were measured with both behavioural and endocrine measurements, concluding that scheduled visual enrichment has the potential to improve the welfare of captive orangutans by providing novel stimuli in the context of largely stable environments

Satellite Monitoring of Terrestrial Plastic Waste

Plastic waste is a significant environmental pollutant that is difficult to monitor. We created a system of neural networks to analyze spectral, spatial, and temporal components of Sentinel-2 satellite data to identify terrestrial aggregations of waste. The system works at continental scale. We evaluated performance in Indonesia and detected 374 waste aggregations, more than double the number of sites found in public databases. The same system deployed across twelve countries in Southeast Asia identifies 996 subsequently confirmed waste sites. For each detected site, we algorithmically monitor waste site footprints through time and cross-reference other datasets to generate physical and social metadata. 19% of detected waste sites are located within 200 m of a waterway. Numerous sites sit directly on riverbanks, with high risk of ocean leakage.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figure

Do patient-reported measures of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis vary between countries? Results from a Nordic collaboration

Objectives To investigate whether patient-reported outcomes vary across countries and are influenced by cultural/contextual factors. Specifically, we aimed to assess inter-country differences in tender joint count (TJC), pain and patient's global health assessment (PGA), and their impact on disease activity (DAS28-CRP) in RA patients from five Nordic countries. Methods We collected data (baseline, 3- and 12-months) from rheumatology registers in the five countries comprising RA patients starting a first ever MTX or a first ever TNF inhibitor (TNFi). In order to assess the role of context (=country), we separately modelled TJC, pain and PGA as functions of objective variables (CRP, swollen joint count, age, sex, calendar period and disease duration) with linear models. Analyses were performed at each time point and for both treatments. We further assessed the impact of inter-country differences on DAS28-CRP. Results A total of 27 645 RA patients started MTX and 19 733 started a TNFi. Crude inter-country differences at MTX start amounted to up to 4 points (28 points scale) for TJC, 10 and 27 points (0-100 scale) for pain and PGA, respectively. Corresponding numbers at TNFi start were 3 (TJC), 27 (pain) and 24 (PGA) points. All differences were reduced at 3- and 12-months, and attenuated when adjusting for the objective variables. The variation in predicted DAS28-CRP across countries amounted to Conclusions Inter-country differences in TJC, pain and PGA are greater than expected based on differences in objective measures, but have a small clinical impact on DAS28-CRP across countries.Peer reviewe

Tito's Bunker

Inclusion of Amoy Gardens (2003/07) in international group exhibition Tito's Bunker at Württembergischer Kunstverein, Stuttgart, curated by Iris Dressler and Hans D. Christ. The exhibition reconsiders the socio-political text of a nuclear bunker built between 1953 and 1979 in Konjic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, for Josip Broz Tito, former prime minister of Yugoslavia