Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

International audienceLand-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Although the averages found appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change

Enhancing Approximations for Regular Reachability Analysis

This paper introduces two mechanisms for computing over-approximations of sets of reachable states, with the aim of ensuring termination of state-space exploration. The first mechanism consists in over-approximating the automata representing reachable sets by merging some of their states with respect to simple syntactic criteria, or a combination of such criteria. The second approximation mechanism consists in manipulating an auxiliary automaton when applying a transducer representing the transition relation to an automaton encoding the initial states. In addition, for the second mechanism we propose a new approach to refine the approximations depending on a property of interest. The proposals are evaluated on examples of mutual exclusion protocols

Slibbalans-Zeeschelde: deelrapport 3.Literatuurstudie

This literature review is a deliverable within the study "slibbalans Zeeschelde" (WL Project 00_029), and gives an overview of available knowledge on mud transport and stock in the Scheldt estuary. It is meant to be used as a reference and an inventarisation of available knowledge on the mud balance of the Scheldt estuary. Sometimes a claim by an author may have come at odds with more recent insights in system behaviour. The authors have tried to indicate that in the text. Because insights are constantly evolving, this document should be a living document.First, available methodologies to estimate mud transport are presented. Anthropogenic activities in the Scheldt estuary that had a possible impact on the mud dynamics are listed. The main part of this literature review consists of a summary of the most important conclusions of literature describing the mud stock in the Scheldt estuary since 1964 and an overview of historic estimations of mud transport and sedimentation over time in different parts of the estuary.For the sake of consistency, mud quantities are converted to Ton Dry Matter whenever possible (TDM in English, Ton Droge Stof or TDS in Dutch), which correspond to the mass of the grains of sediment in the water-sediment mixture

Constriction size distributions of granular filters: a numerical study

The retention capability of granular filters is controlled by the narrow constrictions connecting the voids within the filter. The theoretical justification for empirical filter rules used in practice includes consideration of an idealised soil fabric in which constrictions form between co-planar combinations of spherical filter particles. This idealised fabric has not been confirmed by experimental or numerical observations of real constrictions. This paper reports the results of direct, particle-scale measurement of the constriction size distribution (CSD) within virtual samples of granular filters created using the discrete-element method (DEM). A previously proposed analytical method that predicts the full CSD using inscribed circles to estimate constriction sizes is found to poorly predict the CSD for widely graded filters due to an over-idealisation of the soil fabric. The DEM data generated are used to explore quantitatively the influence of the coefficient of uniformity, particle size distribution and relative density of the filter on the CSD. For a given relative density CSDs form a narrow band of similarly shaped curves when normalised by characteristic filter diameters. This lends support to the practical use of characteristic diameters to assess filter retention capability

Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared with the reference period 1960– 1991, a change in annual groundwater recharge between −20% and +7%. On average annual groundwater recharge decreases 7%. In most scenarios the recharge increases during winter but decreases during summer. The altered recharge patterns cause the groundwater level to decrease significantly from September to January. On average the groundwater level decreases about 7 cm with a standard deviation between the scenarios of 5 cm. Groundwater levels in interfluves and upstream areas are more sensitive to climate change than groundwater levels in the river valley. Groundwater discharge to GWDTEs is expected to decrease during late summer and autumn as much as 10%, though the discharge remains at reference-period level during winter and early spring. As GWDTEs are strongly influenced by temporal dynamics of the groundwater system, close monitoring of groundwater and implementation of adaptive management measures are required to prevent ecological loss

Environmental Determinants of Malaria Transmission Around the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia

New dam construction is known to exacerbate malaria transmission in Africa as the vectors of malaria—Anopheles mosquitoes—use bodies of water as breeding sites. Precise environmental mechanisms of how reservoirs exacerbate malaria transmission are yet to be identified. Understanding of these mechanisms should lead to a better assessment of the impacts of dam construction and to new prevention strategies. Combining extensive multiyear field surveys around the Koka Reservoir in Ethiopia and rigorous model development and simulation studies, environmental mechanisms of malaria transmission around the reservoir were examined. Most comprehensive and detailed malaria transmission model, Hydrology, Entomology, and Malaria Transmission Simulator, was applied to a village adjacent to the reservoir. Significant contributions to the dynamics of malaria transmission are shaped by wind profile, marginal pools, temperature, and shoreline locations. Wind speed and wind direction influence Anopheles populations and malaria transmission during the major and secondary mosquito seasons. During the secondary mosquito season, a noticeable influence was also attributed to marginal pools. Temperature was found to play an important role, not so much in Anopheles population dynamics, but in malaria transmission dynamics. Change in shoreline locations drives malaria transmission dynamics, with closer shoreline locations to the village making malaria transmission more likely. Identified environmental mechanisms help in predicting malaria transmission seasons and in developing village relocation strategies upon dam construction to minimize the risk of malaria

Understanding variation in prospective poor decoders: A person-centred approach from kindergarten to Grade 2

In the present study, we aimed to clarify variation in prospective poor decoders by studying the development of their word decoding skills during the first 1½ years of formal reading education and their unique pre-reading profiles before the onset of formal reading education. Using structural equation modelling and a factorial mixed model analysis of variance (ANOVA), we found autoregression and growth in the word decoding efficiency of prospective poor decoders (n = 90) and matched prospective adequate decoders (n = 90) in first and second grade. However, the gap between the two groups widened over time. Next, we zoomed in on the group of poor decoders by retrospectively studying their individual variation regarding cognitive and linguistic pre-reading skills. Using latent profile analysis, we found three distinct pre-reading profiles: (1) Poor PA, Letter Knowledge, RAN, and Verbal STM; (2) Poor PA and Letter Knowledge; and (3) Poor RAN. Together, these findings suggest that reading difficulties emerge at the intersection of multiple risk factors which can be detected in kindergarten, and that these reading problems persist throughout early reading education

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level in the basin, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% for scenario A1 and B2, respectively. Although these averages appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change

Heart Failure and Pancreas Exocrine Insufficiency:Pathophysiological Mechanisms and Clinical Point of View

Heart failure is associated with decreased tissue perfusion and increased venous congestion that may result in organ dysfunction. This dysfunction has been investigated extensively for many organs, but data regarding pancreatic (exocrine) dysfunction are scarce. In the present review we will discuss the available data on the mechanisms of pancreatic damage, how heart failure can lead to exocrine dysfunction, and its clinical consequences. We will show that heart failure causes significant impairment of pancreatic exocrine function, particularly in the elderly, which may exacerbate the clinical syndrome of heart failure. In addition, pancreatic exocrine insufficiency may lead to further deterioration of cardiovascular disease and heart failure, thus constituting a true vicious circle. We aim to provide insight into the pathophysiological mechanisms that constitute this reciprocal relation. Finally, novel treatment options for pancreatic dysfunction in heart failure are discussed