Rain attenuation prediction model for satellite communications based on the Météo-France ensemble prediction system PEARP

This paper presents an example of the usage of ensemble weather forecasting for the control of satellite-based communication systems. Satellite communication systems become increasingly sensitive to weather conditions as their operating frequency increases to avoid electromagnetic spectrum congestion and enhance their capacity. In the microwave domain, electromagnetic waves that are conveying information are attenuated between the satellite and Earth terminals in the presence of hydrometeors (mostly rain drops and more marginally cloud droplets). To maintain a reasonable level of service availability, even with adverse weather conditions considering the scarcity of amplification power in spacecraft, fade mitigation techniques have been developed. The general idea behind those fade mitigation techniques is to reroute, change the characteristics or reschedule the transmission in the case of too-significant propagation impairments. For some systems, a scheduling on how to use those mechanisms some hours in advance is required, making assumptions on the future weather conditions affecting the link. To this aim the use of weather forecast data to control the attenuation compensation mechanisms seems of particular interest to maximize the performances of the communication links and hence of the associated economic value. A model to forecast the attenuation on the link based on forecasted rainfall amounts from deterministic or ensemble weather forecasting is presented and validated. In a second phase, the model's application to a simplified telecommunication system allows us to demonstrate the valuable contribution of weather forecasting in the system's availability optimization or in the system's throughput optimization. The benefit of using ensemble forecasts rather than deterministic ones is demonstrated as well.</p

Structural barriers to comprehensive, coordinated HIV care: Geographic accessibility in the US South

Structural barriers to HIV care are particularly challenging in the US South, which has higher HIV diagnosis rates, poverty, uninsurance, HIV stigma, and rurality, and fewer comprehensive public health programs versus other US regions. Focusing on one structural barrier, we examined geographic accessibility to comprehensive, coordinated HIV care (HIVCCC) in the US South. We integrated publicly available data to study travel time to HIVCCC in 16 Southern states and District of Columbia. We geocoded HIVCCC service locations and estimated drive time between the population-weighted county centroid and closest HIVCCC facility. We evaluated drive time in aggregate, and by county-level HIV prevalence quintile, urbanicity, and race/ethnicity. Optimal drive time was ≤30 min, a common primary care accessibility threshold. We identified 228 service locations providing HIVCCC across 1422 Southern counties, with median drive time to care of 70 min (IQR 64 min). For 368 counties in the top HIV prevalence quintile, median drive time is 50 min (IQR 61 min), exceeding 60 min in over one-third of these counties. Among counties in the top HIV prevalence quintile, drive time to care is six-folder higher for rural versus super-urban counties. Counties in the top HIV prevalence quintiles for non-Hispanic Blacks and for Hispanics have >50% longer drive time to care versus for non-Hispanic Whites. Including another potential care source—publicly-funded health centers serving low-income populations— could double the number of high-HIV burden counties with drive time ≤30 min, representing nearly 35,000 additional people living with HIV with accessible HIVCCC. Geographic accessibility to HIVCCC is inadequate in the US South, even in high HIV burden areas, and geographic and racial/ethnic disparities exist. Structural factors, such as geographic accessibility to care, may drive disparities in health outcomes. Further research on programmatic policies, and evidence-based alternative HIV care delivery models improving access to care, is critical

Tobacco Retail Outlets, Neighborhood Deprivation and the Risk of Prenatal Smoke Exposure

INTRODUCTION: Smoking and smoke exposure among pregnant women remain persistent public health issues. Recent estimates suggest that approximately one out of four nonsmokers have measurable levels of cotinine, a marker indicating regular exposure to secondhand smoke. Epidemiological research has attempted to pinpoint individual-level and neighborhood-level factors for smoking during pregnancy. However, most of these studies have relied upon self-reported measures of smoking. AIMS AND METHODS: To more accurately assess smoke exposure resulting from both smoking and secondhand exposure in mothers during pregnancy, we used Bayesian regression models to estimate the association of cotinine levels with tobacco retail outlet (TRO) exposure and a neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) in six counties in North Carolina centered on Durham County. RESULTS: Results showed a significant positive association between TRO exposure (β = 0.008, 95% credible interval (CI) = [0.003, 0.013]) and log cotinine after adjusting for individual covariates (eg, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status). TRO exposure was not significant after including the NDI, which was significantly associated with log cotinine (β = 0.143, 95% CI = [0.030, 0.267]). However, in a low cotinine stratum (indicating secondhand smoke exposure), TRO exposure was significantly associated with log cotinine (β = 0.005, 95% CI = [0.001, 0.009]), while in a high cotinine stratum (indicating active smoking), the NDI was significantly associated with log cotinine (β = 0.176, 95% CI = [0.005, 0.372]). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, our findings add to the evidence that contextual factors are important for active smoking during pregnancy. IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we found several significant associations that suggest a more nuanced understanding of the potential influence of environmental- and individual-level factors for levels of prenatal smoke exposure. Results suggested a significant positive association between TRO exposure and cotinine levels, after adjusting for the individual factors such as race, education, and marital status. Individually, NDI was similarly positively associated with cotinine levels as well. However, when combining TRO exposure alongside NDI in the same model, TROs were no longer significantly associated with overall cotinine levels

Perceived risk of infection and death from COVID-19 among community members of low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Background: Risk perceptions of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are considered important as they impact community health behaviors. The aim of this study was to determine the perceived risk of infection and death due to COVID-19 and to assess the factors associated with such risk perceptions among community members in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa, Asia, and South America. Methods: An online cross-sectional study was conducted in 10 LMICs in Africa, Asia, and South America from February to May 2021. A questionnaire was utilized to assess the perceived risk of infection and death from COVID-19 and its plausible determinants. A logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with such risk perceptions. Results: A total of 1,646 responses were included in the analysis of the perceived risk of becoming infected and dying from COVID-19. Our data suggested that 36.4% of participants had a high perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, while only 22.4% had a perceived risk of dying from COVID-19. Being a woman, working in healthcare-related sectors, contracting pulmonary disease, knowing people in the immediate social environment who are or have been infected with COVID-19, as well as seeing or reading about individuals infected with COVID-19 on social media or TV were all associated with a higher perceived risk of becoming infected with COVID-19. In addition, being a woman, elderly, having heart disease and pulmonary disease, knowing people in the immediate social environment who are or have been infected with COVID-19, and seeing or reading about individuals infected with COVID-19 on social media or TV had a higher perceived risk of dying from COVID-19. Conclusions: The perceived risk of infection and death due to COVID-19 are relatively low among respondents; this suggests the need to conduct health campaigns to disseminate knowledge and information on the ongoing pandemic

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

New Method for the Construction of Optical Zero Cross Correlation Code Using Block Matrices in OCDMA-OFDM Systemn Code Using Blocks Matrices in OCDMA-OFDM System

In order to increase the number of users and data rate, and to reduce the impact of multi access interference (MAI), this study proposes the optical code division multiple access (OCDMA) systems with orthogonal frequency division multiplexing modulation (OFDM) based on a new zero cross correlation (ZCC) code. The OCDMA, a new ZCC-OFDM suggested system, was compared to the OCDMA-FCC (Flexible Cross Correlation)-OFDM in terms of signal to noise ratio (SNR) and bit error rate (BER). The results showed that the proposed system with the new ZCC code improves the system capacity performance by increasing the number of simultaneous users (cardinality) up to approximately 120% as compared to SCM (subcarrier multiplexing) OCDMA-FCC, and up to 7% in comparison to OCDMA-FCC (Flexible Cross Correlation)-OFDM. The adopted system has superior performance by saving around -3 dBm of power at the receiver with better bit error rate in comparison to OCDMA-FCC-OFDM system. In addition, the resulting power due to the increased number of users using our proposed new ZCC code is less in comparison to the FCC code. This improvement is due to the effect of the good auto/cross correlation properties of the new ZCC code

Productivity savings from colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies

Background: Lost productivity represents a considerable portion of the total economic burden of colorectal cancer (CRC), but cost-effectiveness studies of CRC prevention and control have not included these costs and therefore underestimate potential savings from CRC prevention and control. Purpose: To use microsimulation modeling study to estimate and project productivity costs of CRC and to model the savings from four approaches to reducing CRC incidence and mortality: risk factor reduction, improved screening, improved treatment, and a simultaneous approach where all three strategies are implemented. Methods: A model was developed to project productivity losses from CRC using the U.S. population with CRC incidence and mortality projected through the year 2020. Outcome measures were CRC mortality, morbidity, and productivity savings. Results: With 2005 levels in risk factors, screening, and treatment, 48,748 CRC deaths occurred in 2010, amounting to $21 billion of lost productivity. Using prevention and treatment strategies simultaneously, 3586 deaths could have been avoided in 2010, leading to a savings of$1.4 billion. Cumulatively, by 2020, simultaneous strategies that reduce risk factors and increase screening and treatment could result in 101,353 deaths avoided and $33.9 billion in savings in reduced productivity loss. Improved screening rates alone led to nearly$14.7 billion in savings between 2005 and 2020, followed by risk factor reduction ($12.4 billion) and improved treatment ($8.4 billion). Conclusions: The savings in productivity loss from strategies to reduce CRC incidence and mortality are substantial, providing evidence that CRC prevention and control strategies are likely to be cost-saving. © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine