PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Analytical models were developed in this paper to evaluate cost/risk tradeoffs of three alternative procurement strategies in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. Results indicate a naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. Two alternative specifications for the constant share strategy result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Crop Production/Industries,

TRANSPARENCY AND BIDDING COMPETITION IN INTERNATIONAL WHEAT TRADE

One of the major trade policy problems identified by U.S. interests, including grower groups, traders, and policymakers, is that of pricing transparency. This has been a gnawing issue generally related to the pricing practices of competitor exporting countries with state trading enterprises (STEs). The transparency problem generally refers to the inability to observe rivals' terms of trade (including price, quality, credit, etc.) and is normally associated with commercial exporters competing against STE rivals. The perception being the less transparent competitors (STEs) would have a strategic advantage. A game theory model of bidding competition was developed to simulate the effects of information asymmetry amongst rivals. A Bayes-Nash equilibrium was used to derive equilibrium solutions. Several stylized examples were used to illustrate aspects of competition and to analyze effects on bidding strategies. Results indicate that: 1) anything that reduces uncertainties among rivals would reduce equilibrium bids and prices; 2) bidding situations in which there is less transparency have the effect of increasing bids and prices to buyers, and payoffs to sellers; and 3) increases in the number of rivals have the effect of reducing bids and mitigating the informational advantages of STEs. In all cases, less transparent sellers have an advantage in bidding competition relative to more transparent sellers. That advantage in our stylized case was in the area of 1-2$/mt. However, that advantage is mitigated with an increase in the number of transparent rivals and in the case where more transparent players have acted as agents for an STE and have more information about costs of an STE. Further, cessation of exports under U.S. EEP programs should have decreased the transparency of U.S. firms, increasing their competitiveness in the international grain trade.Price Transparency, Strategic Bidding, Game Theory, Bayesian-Nash, State Trading Enterprises, Export Enhancement Program, Wheat, International Relations/Trade,

PROCUREMENT STRATEGIES: IMPACTS OF QUALITY RISKS IN HARD WHEAT

Development and organization of procurement strategies have escalated in importance with maturity of the food processing industry, as well as with the prospect of greater choice attributable to variety development and information technology. Conventional alternatives for procurement range from spot purchases with specifications for easily measurable characteristics, to varying forms of strategies with pre-commitment. In the case of grains these choices are complicated by two factors. First, there is intrinsic uncertainty associated with end-use qualities that are not easily measurable. Second, grain prices and therefore procurement costs vary spatially due to competing market regions. Thus, shifting origins may involve higher cost due to having to bid grain away from its next best market. We posed three procurement strategies and developed analytical models to evaluate the risks and costs among these alternatives in the case of hard red spring (HRS) wheat. The first involves no commitment. The second involves some form of irrevocable commitment and the third entails less commitment. Stochastic simulation models were developed for each with an objective of cost minimization subject to different levels of risk. The results indicate that the naive strategy has the lowest expected cost, but a fairly high probability of not conforming to end-use requirements. The constant share strategies result in higher probabilities of meeting requirements, but at substantially higher costs. The opportunistic strategy results in a higher probability of meeting requirements than either of the other two alternative strategies at a comparable cost.Marketing, Agribusiness,

Generation of High-Energy Photons with Large Orbital Angular Momentum by Compton Backscattering

Usually, photons are described by plane waves with a definite 4-momentum. In addition to plane-wave photons, "twisted photons" have recently entered the field of modern laser optics; these are coherent superpositions of plane waves with a defined projection hbar*m of the orbital angular momentum onto the propagation axis, where m is integer. In this paper, we show that it is possible to produce high-energy twisted photons by Compton backscattering of twisted laser photons off ultra-relativistic electrons. Such photons may be of interest for experiments related to the excitation and disintegration of atoms and nuclei, and for studying the photo-effect and pair production off nuclei in previously unexplored experimental regimes.Comment: 4 pages; RevTe

Grain Shipments on the Mississippi River System: A Long-Term Projection

The costs of delays for shipping commodities on the Mississippi River are important and adversely impact growth in shipments. Lock and dam expansion requires substantial capital investment and an extended time period to complete. This study analyzes delay costs and the competitive position of grain shipments on the Mississippi River system. A spatial optimization model of the world grain trade was developed. Results indicated that without expansion in barge capacity, delay costs in 2020 would increase on each reach, with some up to $1.08/mt. Expansion results in reduced delay costs. Barge demand is also impacted by rail capacity. Finally, expanding the locks would result in a re-allocation of shipments among modes, reaches, and ports, notwithstanding minor adjustments in production.Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

Credit Guarantee Programs in International Grain Markets: Background and Issues

Marketing,

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING WORLD GRAIN TRADE IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES

Replaced with corrected version of paper 04/04/08.International Relations/Trade,

Numerical Technique for Analyzing Rotating Rake Mode Measurements in a Duct With Passive Treatment and Shear Flow

A technique is presented for the analysis of measured data obtained from a rotating microphone rake system. The system is designed to measure the interaction modes of ducted fans. A Fourier analysis of the data from the rotating system results in a set of circumferential mode levels at each radial location of a microphone inside the duct. Radial basis functions are then least-squares fit to this data to obtain the radial mode amplitudes. For ducts with soft walls and mean flow, the radial basis functions must be numerically computed. The linear companion matrix method is used to obtain both the eigenvalues of interest, without an initial guess, and the radial basis functions. The governing equations allow for the mean flow to have a boundary layer at the wall. In addition, a nonlinear least-squares method is used to adjust the wall impedance to best fit the data in an attempt to use the rotating system as an in-duct wall impedance measurement tool. Simulated and measured data are used to show the effects of wall impedance and mean flow on the computed results

Dilaton-Axion hair for slowly rotating Kerr black holes

Campbell et al. demonstrated the existence of axion ``hair'' for Kerr black holes due to the non-trivial Lorentz Chern-Simons term and calculated it explicitly for the case of slow rotation. Here we consider the dilaton coupling to the axion field strength, consistent with low energy string theory and calculate the dilaton ``hair'' arising from this specific axion source.Comment: 13 pages + 1 fi

Differential gaze behavior towards sexually preferred and non-preferred human figures

The gaze pattern associated with image exploration is a sensitive index of our attention, motivation and preference. To examine whether an individual’s gaze behavior can reflect his/her sexual interest, we compared gaze patterns of young heterosexual men and women (M = 19.94 years, SD = 1.05) while viewing photos of plain-clothed male and female figures aged from birth to sixty years old. Our analysis revealed a clear gender difference in viewing sexually preferred figure images. Men displayed a distinctive gaze pattern only when viewing twenty-year-old female images, with more fixations and longer viewing time dedicated to the upper body and waist-hip region. Women also directed more attention at the upper body on female images in comparison to male images, but this difference was not age-specific. Analysis of local image salience revealed that observers’ eye-scanning strategies could not be accounted for by low-level processes, such as analyzing local image contrast and structure, but were associated with attractiveness judgments. The results suggest that the difference in cognitive processing of sexually preferred and non-preferred figures can be manifested in gaze patterns associated with figure viewing. Thus, eye-tracking holds promise as a potential sensitive measure for sexual preference, particularly in men