Differential information in large games with strategic complementarities

We study equilibrium in large games of strategic complementarities (GSC) with differential information. We define an appropriate notion of distributional Bayesian Nash equilibrium and prove its existence. Furthermore, we characterize order-theoretic properties of the equilibrium set, provide monotone comparative statics for ordered perturbations of the space of games, and provide explicit algorithms for computing extremal equilibria. We complement the paper with new results on the existence of Bayesian Nash equilibrium in the sense of Balder and Rustichini (J Econ Theory 62(2):385–393, 1994) or Kim and Yannelis (J Econ Theory 77(2):330–353, 1997) for large GSC and provide an analogous characterization of the equilibrium set as in the case of distributional Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Finally, we apply our results to riot games, beauty contests, and common value auctions. In all cases, standard existence and comparative statics tools in the theory of supermodular games for finite numbers of agents do not apply in general, and new constructions are required

Gram Negative Wound Infection in Hospitalised Adult Burn Patients-Systematic Review and Metanalysis-

BACKGROUND: Gram negative infection is a major determinant of morbidity and survival. Traditional teaching suggests that burn wound infections in different centres are caused by differing sets of causative organisms. This study established whether Gram-negative burn wound isolates associated to clinical wound infection differ between burn centres. METHODS: Studies investigating adult hospitalised patients (2000-2010) were critically appraised and qualified to a levels of evidence hierarchy. The contribution of bacterial pathogen type, and burn centre to the variance in standardised incidence of Gram-negative burn wound infection was analysed using two-way analysis of variance. PRIMARY FINDINGS: Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumanni, Enterobacter spp., Proteus spp. and Escherichia coli emerged as the commonest Gram-negative burn wound pathogens. Individual pathogens' incidence did not differ significantly between burn centres (F (4, 20) = 1.1, p = 0.3797; r2 = 9.84). INTERPRETATION: Gram-negative infections predominate in burn surgery. This study is the first to establish that burn wound infections do not differ significantly between burn centres. It is the first study to report the pathogens responsible for the majority of Gram-negative infections in these patients. Whilst burn wound infection is not exclusive to these bacteria, it is hoped that reporting the presence of this group of common Gram-negative "target organisms" facilitate clinical practice and target research towards a defined clinical demand.peer-reviewe

Adjuvant bevacizumab for melanoma patients at high risk of recurrence: survival analysis of the AVAST-M trial

Background: Bevacizumab is a recombinant humanised monoclonal antibody to vascular endothelial growth factor shown to improve survival in advanced solid cancers. We evaluated the role of adjuvant bevacizumab in melanoma patients at high risk of recurrence. Patients and methods: Patients with resected AJCC stage IIB, IIC and III cutaneous melanoma were randomised to receive either adjuvant bevacizumab (7.5?mg/kg i.v. 3 weekly for 1?year) or standard observation. The primary end point was detection of an 8% difference in 5-year overall survival (OS) rate; secondary end points included disease-free interval (DFI) and distant metastasis-free interval (DMFI). Tumour and blood were analysed for prognostic and predictive markers. Results: Patients (n=1343) recruited between 2007 and 2012 were predominantly stage III (73%), with median age 56?years (range 18-88?years). With 6.4-year median follow-up, 515 (38%) patients had died [254 (38%) bevacizumab; 261 (39%) observation]; 707 (53%) patients had disease recurrence [336 (50%) bevacizumab, 371 (55%) observation]. OS at 5?years was 64% for both groups [hazard ratio (HR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-1.16, P?=?0.78). At 5?years, 51% were disease free on bevacizumab versus 45% on observation (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.99, P?=?0.03), 58% were distant metastasis free on bevacizumab versus 54% on observation (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.78-1.07, P?=?0.25). Forty four percent of 682 melanomas assessed had a BRAFV600 mutation. In the observation arm, BRAF mutant patients had a trend towards poorer OS compared with BRAF wild-type patients (P?=?0.06). BRAF mutation positivity trended towards better OS with bevacizumab (P?=?0.21). Conclusions: Adjuvant bevacizumab after resection of high-risk melanoma improves DFI, but not OS. BRAF mutation status may predict for poorer OS untreated and potential benefit from bevacizumab. Clinical Trial Information: ISRCTN 81261306; EudraCT Number: 2006-005505-64

Revealed time-preference

The literature has documented a positive effect of foreign ownership on firm performance. But is this effect due to a one-time knowledge transfer or does it rely on continuous injections of knowledge? To shed light on this question we focus on divestments, that is, foreign affiliates that are sold to local owners. To establish a causal effect of the ownership change we combine a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching. We use plant-level panel data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing covering the period 1990-2009. We consider 157 cases of divestment, where a large set of plant characteristics is available two years before and three years after the ownership change and for which observationally similar control plants exist. The results indicate that divestment is associated with a drop in total factor productivity accompanied by a decline in output, markups as well as export and import intensity. The findings are consistent with the benefits of foreign ownership being driven by continuous supply of headquarter services from the foreign parent

Modelowanie i symulacje numeryczne drogowego testu zderzeniowego TB51 z zastosowaniem uproszczonego modelu autobusu

The paper proposes a methodology of a TB51 virtual crash test on the example of the selected bridge protective barrier, using a simplified coach model. In simulations of crash tests, the nonlinear, explicit finite element code LS-Dyna v971 was used. The simulation results corresponding to the simplified model were compared with the simulation results for a quasi-accurate model and the experimental crash test results. It was shown that the simplified vehicle model can be used in tests certifying a barrier modified in relation to the certified reference barrier.W pracy zaproponowano metodologię wirtualnego badania zderzeniowego TB51 wg normy PN-EN 1317 na przykładzie wybranej mostowej bariery ochronnej, z zastosowaniem uproszczonego modelu autobusu. Celowo zrezygnowano z wpływu zawieszenia, tarcia kół o nawierzchnię, obrotu wokół poziomych osi centralnych pojazdu oraz maksymalnie uproszczono strefy zgniotu. Celem jest skrócenie symulacji i umożliwienie szybkiej kalibracji modelu pojazdu. Takie podejście pomoże również jednostkom certyfikującym w ocenie wyników ze względu na uproszczenie i ujednolicenie pojazdów używanych w symulacjach uderzenia w barierę. Wyniki symulacji odpowiadające modelowi uproszczonemu porównano z wynikami symulacji dla modelu quasi-dokładnego oraz z wynikami eksperymentalnego testu zderzeniowego. Wykazano, że uproszczony model pojazdu może być zastosowany do badań certyfikujących bariery zmodyfikowanej w stosunku do bariery referencyjnej mającej certyfikat. Do symulacji testów zderzeniowych zastosowano nieliniowy jawny kod Metody Elementów Skończonych LS-Dyna v971

DEVELOPMENT OF FINITE ELEMENT MODEL OF SHUNTING LOCOMOTIVE APPLICABLE FOR DYNAMIC ANALYSES

The main aim of this study is to develop a finite element model of the hybrid-shunting locomotive. Considered locomotive is based on a popular shunting locomotive in Poland – SM42. All components above the locomotive frame could be modified in comparison to the original object, whereas a chassis was essentially unchanged. Such solution allows the operators freely configure components e.g. diesel engine, generator, cooling module, cab etc., according to their own requirements. Works on the FE model were focused on very accurate reflection of the locomotive frame since the planned dynamic analyses include crash tests. FE model of the frame has a fine mesh and it is considered as a deformable component. Other segments of the vehicle are simplified and treated as rigid bodies mostly. FE model was developed on the basis of the locomotive CAD model. It was decided to transform the CAD model of the frame into the FE one applying the midsurface procedure. Such approach is correct since the locomotive frame is made of a large number of steel elements in the form of sheet metal plates and sections welded together. Altair Hyper Mesh software was used in the FE model developing process. Appropriate connections between respective components of the model e.g. wheelset – bogie, bogie – locomotive frame, were applied. Finally, the locomotive FE model consists of about 116 thousands of finite shell and solid elements and about 125 thousands of nodes. Dynamic analyses of the locomotive FE model will be carried out using LS-DYNA computer code

Numerical analysis of collision between locomotive and passenger car located on level crossing

The main aim of this study is to carry out dynamic finite element analysis of a collision between shunting locomotive and a passenger car. Numerical simulations include side impact of the running locomotive in the vehicle situated across the track on a level crossing. A considered locomotive based on a popular diesel-electric shunting locomotive SM42 but it was slightly modernized in comparison with the original. Finite element model of the locomotive was developed by the authors whereas the vehicle FE model was download from the National Crashworthiness Analysis Center database and it was dedicated to the crash/impact analyses. FE analysis was carried out according to the PN-EN 15227 standard which provides crashworthiness requirements for railway vehicle bodies. However, additional objective of the analysis was to evaluate the behaviour of a small passenger car during the side impact with about 70-ton locomotive. A subcompact passenger car – Geo Metro – was selected as a representative for the study. One of the design collision scenario impact into low obstacle for railway vehicles operated on national and regional networks. LS-DYNA computer code was used for the simulations. The paper presents selected results of analysis generally focused on the locomotive frame behaviour. Contour of stress for the moment of time is presented. Moreover, time histories of selected parameters are depicted. The energy balance was also checked in order to confirm the accuracy of analysis

Just-noticeable difference as a behavioural foundation of the critical cost-efficiency

Critical cost-efficiency index (or CCEI), proposed in Afriat (1972, 1973) and Varian (1990), is the most commonly used measure of revealed preference violations. By representing consumer preference with interval orders, as in Fishburn (1970), we show that this index is equivalent to a particular notion of the just-noticeable difference, i.e., a measure of dissimilarity between alternatives that is sufficient for the agent to tell them apart. Therefore, CCEI can be interpreted as the consumer's cognitive inability to discriminate among options. This characterisation sheds new light on the existing empirical findings

Eliciting the just-noticeable difference

The evidence from psychophysics suggest that people are unable to discriminate between alternatives unless the options are significantly different. Since this assumption implies non-transitive indifferences, it can not be reconciled with utility maximisation. We provide a method of eliciting consumer preference from observable choices when the agent is incapable of discerning between similar bundles. It is well-known that the issue of noticeable differences can be modelled with semiorder maximisation. We introduce a necessary and sufficient condition under which a finite dataset of consumption bundles and corresponding budget sets can be rationalised with such a relation. The result can be thought of as an extension of Afriat's (1967) theorem to semiorders, rather than utility optimisation. Our approach is constructive and allows us to infer the just-noticeable difference that is sufficient for the agent to differentiate between bundles as well as the "true" preferences of the consumer (i.e., as if perfect discrimination were possible). Furthermore, we argue that the former constitutes a natural measure of how well the preference revealed in the data could be approximated by a weak order. We conclude by applying our test to household-level scanner panel data of food expenditures. Revised June 2017