Evaluating the 2014 Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax in Chile : An Observational Study in Urban Areas

Background In October 2014, Chile implemented a tax modification on SSBs called the Impuesto Adicional a las Bebidas Analcohólicas (IABA). The design of the tax was unique, increasing the tax on soft drinks above 6.25 grams of added sugar per 100 millilitres and decreasing the tax for those below this threshold. Methods and Findings This study evaluates Chile’s sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, which was announced in March 2014 and implemented in October 2014. We used household level grocery purchasing data from 2011 to 2015, for 2,836 households living in cities and representative of the urban population of Chile. We employed a fixed-effects econometric approach and estimated the before-after change in purchasing of SSBs controlling for seasonality, general time trend, temperature, economic fluctuations as well as time invariant household characteristics. Results showed significant changes in purchasing for the statistically preferred model: while there was a barely significant decrease in the volume of all soft drinks, there was a highly significant decrease in the monthly purchased volume of the higher taxed, sugary soft drinks by 21.6%. The direction of this reduction was robust to different empirical modelling approaches, but the statistical significance and the magnitude of the changes varied considerably. The reduction in soft drink purchasing was most evident amongst higher socioeconomic groups and higher pre-tax purchasers of sugary soft drinks. There was no systematic, robust pattern in the estimates by households’ obesity status. After tax implementation, the purchase prices of soft drinks decreased for the items where the tax rate was reduced, but remained unchanged for sugary items, for which the tax was increased. However, the purchase prices increased for sugary soft drinks at the time of the policy announcement. The main limitations include a lack of a randomized design limiting the extent of causal inference possible, and the focus on purchasing data, rather than consumption or health outcomes. Conclusions The results of sub-group analyses suggest that the policy may have been partially effective, though not necessarily in ways that are likely to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in diet-related health. It remains unclear, whether the policy has had a major, overall population level impact. Additionally, since the present study examined purchasing of soft drinks for only one year, a longer-term evaluation, ideally including an assessment of the consumption and health impacts, should be conducted in future research

Probabilistic Inference of Transcription Factor Binding from Multiple Data Sources

An important problem in molecular biology is to build a complete understanding of transcriptional regulatory processes in the cell. We have developed a flexible, probabilistic framework to predict TF binding from multiple data sources that differs from the standard hypothesis testing (scanning) methods in several ways. Our probabilistic modeling framework estimates the probability of binding and, thus, naturally reflects our degree of belief in binding. Probabilistic modeling also allows for easy and systematic integration of our binding predictions into other probabilistic modeling methods, such as expression-based gene network inference. The method answers the question of whether the whole analyzed promoter has a binding site, but can also be extended to estimate the binding probability at each nucleotide position. Further, we introduce an extension to model combinatorial regulation by several TFs. Most importantly, the proposed methods can make principled probabilistic inference from multiple evidence sources, such as, multiple statistical models (motifs) of the TFs, evolutionary conservation, regulatory potential, CpG islands, nucleosome positioning, DNase hypersensitive sites, ChIP-chip binding segments and other (prior) sequence-based biological knowledge. We developed both a likelihood and a Bayesian method, where the latter is implemented with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results on a carefully constructed test set from the mouse genome demonstrate that principled data fusion can significantly improve the performance of TF binding prediction methods. We also applied the probabilistic modeling framework to all promoters in the mouse genome and the results indicate a sparse connectivity between transcriptional regulators and their target promoters. To facilitate analysis of other sequences and additional data, we have developed an on-line web tool, ProbTF, which implements our probabilistic TF binding prediction method using multiple data sources. Test data set, a web tool, source codes and supplementary data are available at: http://www.probtf.org

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089

An investigation of the inelastic behaviour of trabecular bone during the press-fit implantation of a tibial component in total knee arthroplasty

The stress distribution and plastic deformation of peri-prosthetic trabecular bone during press-fit tibial component implantation in total knee arthroplasty is investigated using experimental and finite element techniques. It is revealed that the computed stress distribution, implantation force and plastic deformation in the trabecular bone is highly dependent on the plasticity formulation implemented. By incorporating pressure dependent yielding using a crushable foam plasticity formulation to simulate the trabecular bone during implantation, highly localised stress concentrations and plastic deformation are computed at the bone-implant interface. If the pressure dependent yield is neglected using a traditional von Mises plasticity formulation, a significantly different stress distribution and implantation force is computed in the peri-prosthetic trabecular bone. The results of the study highlight the importance of: (i) simulating the insertion process of press-fit stem implantation; (ii) implementing a pressure dependent plasticity formulation, such as the crushable foam plasticity formulation, for the trabecular bone; (iii) incorporating friction at the implant-bone interface during stem insertion. Simulation of the press-fit implantation process with an appropriate pressure dependent plasticity formulation should be implemented in the design and assessment of arthroplasty prostheses

Limitations in clinical outcome after posterior stabilization of thoracolumbar fractures do not correlate with dynamic trunk muscle dysfunction: an ultrasound controlled prospective cohort study

Background and Purpose Posterior stabilization of the spine is associated with iatrogenic muscle damage. This is discussed to represent an important cause of postoperative pain, especially in open reduction and fixation. The aim of this study was to visualize muscular changes after open or percutaneous posterior stabilization of traumatic thoracolumbar spine fractures and to investigate whether or not these changes are related to the clinical outcome. Methods This prospective cohort study was performed between 05/2012 and 10/2014. A group of posteriorly stabilized patients (study group; SG) with traumatic fractures (AOSpine Type A3 or A4) of the thoracolumbar junction (T11–L2) without neurological deficit were matched to a healthy control group (CG) by age, gender and body mass index. Follow-up: 12 months after surgery. Parameters: muscle size, voluntary muscular activation (VMA) using a standardized ultrasound protocol and standardized questionnaires (VAS Spine Score; ODI; SF-36) were analyzed. Statistics: SPSS (Version 20, 76 Chicago, IL, USA). T test, Chi squared test, analysis of variance and a correlation analysis were performed. Significance level was at p  0.07; NS). Conclusion In surgically treated A3 and A4 fractures, there is continuous muscular deficit 1 year after surgery as documented by ultrasound and clinical control. But, by means of our study we conclude that those muscular deficits alone seem not to be decisive for the clinical outcome 1 year after surgery