Evaluation of a class of possible simple interim management procedures for the Namibian hake fishery

During 1997, considerable scientific differences arose about the status of the Namibian hake (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) resource, and as to whether the hake Total Allowable Catch (TAC) should be substantially decreased or increased. These differences revolved primarily around whether or not abundance estimates from the swept-area trawl surveys by the Norwegian research vessel Dr Fridtjof Nansen should be considered as reliable measures of biomass in absolute (as distinct from relative) terms. The paper relates the computations underlying the Interim Management Procedure (IMP) approach that was put forward at that time as a basis to resolve this impasse. The anticipated performance, in terms of catch and risk of resource depletion, of a number of simple candidate IMPs for the Namibian hake resource is evaluated. The IMPs depend on two parameters, whose values are to be chosen by decision-makers, and adjust the TAC up or down from one year to the next according to whether trends in recent commercial catch rate and survey indices of abundance are positive or negative. Performances are evaluated across the then current wide range argued for resource abundance and status. Trade-offs in performance across the candidates considered are discussed. One of the candidates was subsequently selected by a joint meeting of scientists, industry and Ministry officials in February 1998 and served as the basis for scientific recommendations for the TAC for the hake resource for the following three years. Keywords: abundance, Cape hake, Management Procedure, Namibia, performance, surveys, trade-offAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2001, 23: 357–37

GLM-based standarization of the catch per unit effort series for South African west coast hake, focusing on adjustments for targeting other species

Catch per unit effort (cpue) data for the South African west coast Cape hakes Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus were standardized by applying the Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM) technique. The resulting standardized series indicated that resource abundance declined at a rate of 0.4% per annum over the period 1978–1994. Further investigation revealed that the model applied did not adequately adjust for effort being directed away from hake towards other species. This was because, for low bycatch cpue, there was a positive rather than the expected negative correlation with hake catch rates. A method to correct for this inadequate adjustment, taking account of an assumed underlying reason of positively correlated fluctuations in catchability of hake and bycatch species, was developed and tested by simulation. This resulted in a more optimistic view of resource status, indicating a 0.6% per year increase in abundance over the period considered. This result remained contrary to general perceptions in the industry that there was a substantial improvement in resource abundance over the 17-year period considered, as suggested by a 4% increase in abundance per year in nominal cpue. The reasons that the GLM indicated a lesser increase in resource abundance were that the effective average power of the fleet increased, the fleet moved over time to deeper water, where catch rates were higher, and the increase in fish density in deeper water was more than offset by a simultaneous decrease in density in shallower waters. The inadequate bycatch adjustment arose from the analyses inappropriately including bycatch species that co-occur with hake, and hence are taken incidentally in hake-directed fishing, instead of only species whose capture requires a different targeting of effort.Keywords: bycatch corrections, Cape hakes, catch per unit effort, Generalized Linear ModellingAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2002, 24: 323–33

Towards adaptive approaches to management of the South African abalone haliotis midae fishery

The South African abalone Haliotis midae resource is widely perceived as being under threat of overexploitation as a result of increased poaching. In this paper, reservations are expressed about using catch per unit effort as the sole index of abundance when assessing this fishery, particularly because of the highly aggregatory behaviour of the species. A fishery-independent survey has been initiated and is designed to provide relative indices of abundance with CVs of about 25% in most of the zones for which Total Allowable Catchs (TACs) are set annually for this fishery. However, it will take several years before this relative index matures to a time-serieslong enough to provide a usable basis for management. Through a series of simple simulation models, it is shown that calibration of the survey to provide values of biomass in absolute terms would greatly enhance thevalue of the dataset. The models show that, if sufficient precision (CV 50% or less) could be achieved in such a calibration exercise, the potential for management benefit is improved substantially, even when using a relatively simple management procedure to set TACs. This improvement results from an enhanced ability to detect resource declines or increases at an early stage, as well as from decreasing the time period until the survey index becomes useful. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that basic modelling techniques could usefully indicate which forms of adaptive management experiments would improve ability to manage the resource, mainly through estimation of the level of precision that would be required from those experiments. The results of this study are particularlyapplicable to fishing zones for which there are insufficient other data to perform a standard stock assessment

Cephalopod fisheries: A future global upside to past overexploitation of living marine resources? Results of an international workshop, 31 August – 2 September 1997, Cape town, South Africa

Management strategies for cephalopod fisheries present similar challenges to those encountered in fisheries for finfish. Peculiarities of cephalopod life cycles and the fact that cephalopod fisheries can benefit frommanagement experiences gained in other fisheries may help to preclude mistakes and management failures. During a three-day workshop, features of cephalopod biology, recommended areas of research and key conclusions for management were identified and points of differences between cephalopods and fish were highlighted. Among these, life-cycle understanding, spatial distribution, stock-recruitment relationship and agedetermination/growth studies were identified as key priorities for research. Physiological and genetic approaches to understanding basic aspects of the life cycle, and their importance for understanding populationdynamics, were stressed. Similarly, theoretical ecology has a role to play in management, e.g. the role of a spatial distribution strategy in survival. Environmental studies are also emerging as being important in thepossible prediction of population trends through links that operate at the level of spawning biology. In the interim, cephalopods can be managed using similar principles to those applied to short-lived fish species.Among these, constant proportion harvest strategies were identified as the most effective

The application of a management procedure to regulate the directed and bycatch fishery of South African sardine sardinops sagax

The South African sardine Sardinops sagax resource is subjected to both directed fishing that targets adult fish, and bycatch of both juvenile and adult fish taken in the directed fisheries for anchovy Engraulis capensisand round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi. Two separate TACs (Total Allowable Catch) for sardine are calculated in the management procedures considered. The first is a directed TAC linked to sardine abundance, and the second is a bycatch TAC with an “anchovy” component coupled to the anchovy population dynamics as a proportion of the anchovy TAC, plus a “round herring” component reflecting a fixed tonnage independent of round herring abundance. Requirements from the pelagic industry, such as a minimum economically viable annual directed catch and a maximum percentage decrease in the directed TAC that could be tolerated from year to year are also incorporated. The selection of a single management procedure for implementation is based on the comparison of performance statistics such as risk of severe depletion and average annual catch, which incorporate the consequences of random error in survey estimates of abundance and random fluctuations in recruitment from year to year. Sensitivity tests are carried out to ensure robustness over a range of alternative assumptions concerning resource dynamics. A description is given of the development of the management procedure for sardine thatwas implemented in 1994, and the rationale for its selection. A wide range of variants to this procedure, including those that consider alternative approaches for handling bycatch, are investigated. Performance of the management procedures considered demonstrates extreme sensitivity to the choice of the proportion of the anchovy TAC used in the sardine bycatch TAC calculation. A lack of robustness of the selected management procedure to possible bias in estimates of spawner biomass from hydroacoustic surveys, and poor precision of recruit survey estimatesare argued as justification for adopting a conservative approach for managing sardine

The immunopathology of human schistosomiasis-III: immunoglobulin isotype profiles and response to praziquantel

Immunoglobulin (Ig) isotype (IgG, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, IgG4, IgM, IgD and IgE) levels were investigated, both pre- and post-treatment with praziquantel (PZQ), in 43 adults and children chronically infected with Schistosoma mansoni , by means of a two-site, isotype-specific immunoenzymometric assay. The patients were classified as responders (R) or non-responders (NR) on the basis of their circumoval precipitin test (COPT) results 12 months after treatment. In comparison with controls, pre-treatment R children showed significantly higher levels of IgG, IgG1, IgG4 (p<0.001) and IgE (p<0.01), and diminished IgG2 (p<0.05), while NR children showed significantly elevated levels only of IgE (p<0.05). Twelve months after therapy, R children maintained significantly lower levels of IgG2, but showed significantly decreased levels of IgG, IgG1, IgG4, and IgE, while the Ig isotype profile of NR children was unaltered. Adult R and NR showed similar isotype profiles before chemotherapy, with the exception of significantly elevated IgM levels in R. Twelve months after therapy, R adults showed significantly decreased levels of IgG, IgG1, and IgG4, while NR adults showed only diminshed IgG4 levels. These results reveal different Ig isotype profiles in untreated adults and children chronically infected with S. mansoni. The results further show that the pre-treatment Ig isotype profile may be significantly modified after an effective R to chemotherapy, accounted for by down regulation of the IgG1 isotype in association with negative seroconversion of the COPT in R patients. The COPT reaction has been associated with the highly specific egg glycoprotein antigen w1, which shows a significant reduction in reactivity six months after treatment. IgG1 may thus play a main role in the response against the w1 antigen

Plastisol Foaming Process. Decomposition of the Foaming Agent, Polymer Behavior in the Corresponding Temperature Range and Resulting Foam Properties

The decomposition of azodicarbonamide, used as foaming agent in PVC - plasticizer (1/1) plastisols was studied by DSC. Nineteen different plasticizers, all belonging to the ester family, two being polymeric (polyadipates), were compared. The temperature of maximum decomposition rate (in anisothermal regime at 5 K min-1 scanning rate), ranges between 434 and 452 K. The heat of decomposition ranges between 8.7 and 12.5 J g -1. Some trends of variation of these parameters appear significant and are discussed in terms of solvent (matrix) and viscosity effects on the decomposition reactions. The shear modulus at 1 Hz frequency was determined at the temperature of maximum rate of foaming agent decomposition, and differs significantly from a sample to another. The foam density was determined at ambient temperature and the volume fraction of bubbles was used as criterion to judge the efficiency of the foaming process. The results reveal the existence of an optimal shear modulus of the order of 2 kPa that corresponds roughly to plasticizer molar masses of the order of 450 ± 50 g mol-1. Heavier plasticizers, especially polymeric ones are too difficult to deform. Lighter plasticizers such as diethyl phthalate (DEP) deform too easily and presumably facilitate bubble collapse

Angular and Current-Target Correlations in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Correlations between charged particles in deep inelastic ep scattering have been studied in the Breit frame with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 6.4 pb-1. Short-range correlations are analysed in terms of the angular separation between current-region particles within a cone centred around the virtual photon axis. Long-range correlations between the current and target regions have also been measured. The data support predictions for the scaling behaviour of the angular correlations at high Q2 and for anti-correlations between the current and target regions over a large range in Q2 and in the Bjorken scaling variable x. Analytic QCD calculations and Monte Carlo models correctly describe the trends of the data at high Q2, but show quantitative discrepancies. The data show differences between the correlations in deep inelastic scattering and e+e- annihilation.Comment: 26 pages including 10 figures (submitted to Eur. J. Phys. C

An atlas of genetic scores to predict multi-omic traits

The use of omic modalities to dissect the molecular underpinnings of common diseases and traits is becoming increasingly common. But multi-omic traits can be genetically predicted, which enables highly cost-effective and powerful analyses for studies that do not have multi-omics1. Here we examine a large cohort (the INTERVAL study2; n = 50,000 participants) with extensive multi-omic data for plasma proteomics (SomaScan, n = 3,175; Olink, n = 4,822), plasma metabolomics (Metabolon HD4, n = 8,153), serum metabolomics (Nightingale, n = 37,359) and whole-blood Illumina RNA sequencing (n = 4,136), and use machine learning to train genetic scores for 17,227 molecular traits, including 10,521 that reach Bonferroni-adjusted significance. We evaluate the performance of genetic scores through external validation across cohorts of individuals of European, Asian and African American ancestries. In addition, we show the utility of these multi-omic genetic scores by quantifying the genetic control of biological pathways and by generating a synthetic multi-omic dataset of the UK Biobank3 to identify disease associations using a phenome-wide scan. We highlight a series of biological insights with regard to genetic mechanisms in metabolism and canonical pathway associations with disease; for example, JAK-STAT signalling and coronary atherosclerosis. Finally, we develop a portal ( https://www.omicspred.org/ ) to facilitate public access to all genetic scores and validation results, as well as to serve as a platform for future extensions and enhancements of multi-omic genetic scores