Workshop by VEMCO

19–22 May 2022 Kyoto, Japa

The Brighton declaration: the value of non-communicable disease modelling in population health sciences.

The Brighton declaration arose out of a one day workshop held in Brighton in September 2013 as part of the Society for Social Medicine annual conference. The workshop convened UK based non-communicable disease modellers to discuss the challenges and opportunities for non-communicable disease modelling in the UK. The declaration describes the value and importance of non-communicable disease modelling, both for research and for informing health policy. The declaration also describes challenges and issues for non-communicable disease modelling. The declaration has been endorsed by many non-communicable disease modellers in the UK.The following academics collaborated with the authors to finalise this article are and acknowledged as co-signatories on its content. The authors are extremely grateful for their input. University of Cambridge: Ali Abbas, Marko Tanio; University of Edinburgh: Dr Susannah McLean; UK Health Forum: Martin Brown, Tim Marsh, Marco Mesa-Frias, Lise Retat; Imperial College London: Anthony Laverty; The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: Zaid Chalabi; University College London: Luz Sanchez Romero; University of Oxford: Anja Mizdrak, Mike Rayner, Marco Springmann; University of Sheffield: Alan Brennan, James Chilcott, John Holmes, Petra Meier, John Mooney; University of Southampton: Grant Aitken. ADMB and OTM are funded by the Wellcome Trust. PS is funded by the British Heart Foundation. JW is funded by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship.This is the final published version. The article was originally published in the European Journal of Epidemiology (2014) 29, 867–870, DOI 10.1007/s10654-014-9978-0

Estimating Small Area Income Deprivation: An Iterative Proportional Fitting Approach

Small area estimation and in particular the estimation of small area income deprivation has potential value in the development of new or alternative components of multiple deprivation indices. These new approaches enable the development of income distribution threshold based as opposed to benefit count based measures of income deprivation and so enable the alignment of regional and national measures such as the Households Below Average Income with small area measures. This paper briefly reviews a number of approaches to small area estimation before describing in some detail an iterative proportional fitting based spatial microsimulation approach. This approach is then applied to the estimation of small area HBAI rates at the small area level in Wales in 2003-5. The paper discusses the results of this approach, contrasts them with contemporary ‘official’ income deprivation measures for the same areas and describes a range of ways to assess the robustness of the results

Protective effect of stromal Dickkopf-3 in prostate cancer: opposing roles for TGFBI and ECM-1

Aberrant transforming growth factor–β (TGF-β) signaling is a hallmark of the stromal microenvironment in cancer. Dickkopf-3 (Dkk-3), shown to inhibit TGF-β signaling, is downregulated in prostate cancer and upregulated in the stroma in benign prostatic hyperplasia, but the function of stromal Dkk-3 is unclear. Here we show that DKK3 silencing in WPMY-1 prostate stromal cells increases TGF-β signaling activity and that stromal cellconditioned media inhibit prostate cancer cell invasion in a Dkk-3-dependent manner. DKK3 silencing increased the level of the cell-adhesion regulator TGF-β–induced protein (TGFBI) in stromal and epithelial cell-conditioned media, and recombinant TGFBI increased prostate cancer cell invasion. Reduced expression of Dkk-3 in patient tumors was associated with increased expression of TGFBI. DKK3 silencing reduced the level of extracellular matrix protein-1 (ECM-1) in prostate stromal cell-conditioned media but increased it in epithelial cell-conditioned media, and recombinant ECM-1 inhibited TGFBI-induced prostate cancer cell invasion. Increased ECM1 and DKK3 mRNA expression in prostate tumors was associated with increased relapse-free survival. These observations are consistent with a model in which the loss of Dkk-3 in prostate cancer leads to increased secretion of TGFBI and ECM-1, which have tumor-promoting and tumor-protective roles, respectively. Determining how the balance between the opposing roles of extracellular factors influences prostate carcinogenesis will be key to developing therapies that target the tumor microenvironment

Choice of Bacterial Growth Medium Alters the Transcriptome and Phenotype of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium

The type of bacterial culture medium is an important consideration during design of any experimental protocol. The aim of this study was to understand the impact of medium choice on bacterial gene expression and physiology by comparing the transcriptome of Salmonella enterica SL1344 after growth in the widely used LB broth or the rationally designed MOPS minimal medium. Transcriptomics showed that after growth in MOPS minimal media, compared to LB, there was increased expression of 42 genes involved in amino acid synthesis and 23 genes coding for ABC transporters. Seven flagellar genes had decreased expression after growth in MOPS minimal medium and this correlated with a decreased motility. In both MOPS minimal medium and MEM expression of genes from SPI-2 was increased and the adhesion of S. Typhimurium to intestinal epithelial cells was higher compared to the levels after growth in LB. However, SL1344 invasion was not significantly altered by growth in either MOPs minimal media or MEM. Expression of SPI-2 was also measured using chromosomal GFP reporter fusions followed by flow cytometry which showed, for the first time, that the reduction in SPI-2 transcript after growth in different media related to a reduction in the proportion of the bacterial population expressing SPI-2. These data highlight the profound differences in the global transcriptome after in vitro growth in different media and show that choice of medium should be considered carefully during experimental design, particularly when virulence related phenotypes are being measured

Proposal of a framework for evaluating military surveillance systems for early detection of outbreaks on duty areas

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years a wide variety of epidemiological surveillance systems have been developed to provide early identification of outbreaks of infectious disease. Each system has had its own strengths and weaknesses. In 2002 a Working Group of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) produced a framework for evaluation, which proved suitable for many public health surveillance systems. However this did not easily adapt to the military setting, where by necessity a variety of different parameters are assessed, different constraints placed on the systems, and different objectives required. This paper describes a proposed framework for evaluation of military syndromic surveillance systems designed to detect outbreaks of disease on operational deployments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The new framework described in this paper was developed from the cumulative experience of British and French military syndromic surveillance systems. The methods included a general assessment framework (CDC), followed by more specific methods of conducting evaluation. These included Knowledge/Attitude/Practice surveys (KAP surveys), technical audits, ergonomic studies, simulations and multi-national exercises. A variety of military constraints required integration into the evaluation. Examples of these include the variability of geographical conditions in the field, deployment to areas without prior knowledge of naturally-occurring disease patterns, the differences in field sanitation between locations and over the length of deployment, the mobility of military forces, turnover of personnel, continuity of surveillance across different locations, integration with surveillance systems from other nations working alongside each other, compatibility with non-medical information systems, and security.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A framework for evaluation has been developed that can be used for military surveillance systems in a staged manner consisting of initial, intermediate and final evaluations. For each stage of the process parameters for assessment have been defined and methods identified.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The combined experiences of French and British syndromic surveillance systems developed for use in deployed military forces has allowed the development of a specific evaluation framework. The tool is suitable for use by all nations who wish to evaluate syndromic surveillance in their own military forces. It could also be useful for civilian mobile systems or for national security surveillance systems.</p

High-performance shape-engineerable thermoelectric painting

Output power of thermoelectric generators depends on device engineering minimizing heat loss as well as inherent material properties. However, the device engineering has been largely neglected due to the limited flat or angular shape of devices. Considering that the surface of most heat sources where these planar devices are attached is curved, a considerable amount of heat loss is inevitable. To address this issue, here, we present the shape-engineerable thermoelectric painting, geometrically compatible to surfaces of any shape. We prepared Bi2Te3-based inorganic paints using the molecular Sb2Te3 chalcogenidometalate as a sintering aid for thermoelectric particles, with ZT values of 0.67 for n-type and 1.21 for p-type painted materials that compete the bulk values. Devices directly brush-painted onto curved surfaces produced the high output power of 4.0 mW cm(-2). This approach paves the way to designing materials and devices that can be easily transferred to other applications.ope

Hawking emission from quantum gravity black holes

We address the issue of modelling quantum gravity effects in the evaporation of higher dimensional black holes in order to go beyond the usual semi-classical approximation. After reviewing the existing six families of quantum gravity corrected black hole geometries, we focus our work on non-commutative geometry inspired black holes, which encode model independent characteristics, are unaffected by the quantum back reaction and have an analytical form compact enough for numerical simulations. We consider the higher dimensional, spherically symmetric case and we proceed with a complete analysis of the brane/bulk emission for scalar fields. The key feature which makes the evaporation of non-commutative black holes so peculiar is the possibility of having a maximum temperature. Contrary to what happens with classical Schwarzschild black holes, the emission is dominated by low frequency field modes on the brane. This is a distinctive and potentially testable signature which might disclose further features about the nature of quantum gravity.Comment: 36 pages, 18 figures, v2: updated reference list, minor corrections, version matching that published on JHE

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Risk estimates of recurrent congenital anomalies in the UK: a population-based register study

BACKGROUND: Recurrence risks for familial congenital anomalies in successive pregnancies are known, but this information for major structural anomalies is lacking. We estimated the absolute and relative risks of recurrent congenital anomaly in the second pregnancy for women with a history of a congenital anomaly in the first pregnancy; for all major anomaly groups and subtypes. METHODS: Population-based register data on 18,605 singleton pregnancies affected by major congenital anomaly occurring in 872,493 singleton stillbirths, live births and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were obtained from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey, North of England, UK, for 1985-2010. Absolute risks (ARs) and relative risks (RRs) for recurrent congenital anomaly (overall, from a similar group, from a dissimilar group) in the second pregnancy were estimated by history of congenital anomaly (overall, by group, by subtype) in the first pregnancy. RESULTS: The estimated prevalences of congenital anomaly in first and second pregnancies were 276 (95% CI 270-281) and 163 (95% CI 159-168) per 10,000 respectively. For women whose first pregnancy was affected by congenital anomaly, the AR of recurrent congenital anomaly in the second pregnancy was 408 (95% CI 365-456) per 10,000; 2.5 (95% CI 2.3-2.8, p<0.0001) times higher than for those with unaffected first pregnancies. For similar anomalies, the recurrence risk was considerably elevated (RR=23.8, 95% CI 19.6-27.9, P<0.0001) while for dissimilar anomalies the increase was more modest (RR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6, P=0.001), although the ARs for both were 2%. CONCLUSIONS: Absolute recurrence risks varied between 1 in 20 and 1 in 30 for most major anomaly groups. At pre-conception and antenatal counselling, women whose first pregnancy was affected by a congenital anomaly and who are planning a further pregnancy may find it reassuring that despite high relative risks, the absolute recurrence risk is relatively low