Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Physician and patient attitudes towards complementary and alternative medicine in obstetrics and gynecology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the U.S., complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use is most prevalent among reproductive age, educated women. We sought to determine general attitudes and approaches to CAM among obstetric and gynecology patients and physicians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Obstetrician-gynecologist members of the American Medical Association in the state of Michigan and obstetric-gynecology patients at the University of Michigan were surveyed. Physician and patient attitudes and practices regarding CAM were characterized.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Surveys were obtained from 401 physicians and 483 patients. Physicians appeared to have a more positive attitude towards CAM as compared to patients, and most reported routinely endorsing, providing or referring patients for at least one CAM modality. The most commonly used CAM interventions by patients were divergent from those rated highest among physicians, and most patients did not consult with a health care provider prior to starting CAM.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although obstetrics/gynecology physicians and patients have a positive attitude towards CAM, physician and patients' view of the most effective CAM therapies were incongruent. Obstetrician/gynecologists should routinely ask their patients about their use of CAM with the goal of providing responsible, evidence-based advice to optimize patient care.</p

Seasonal change in the daily timing of behaviour of the common vole, Microtus arvalis

1. Seasonal effects on daily activity patterns in the common vole were established by periodic trapping in the field and continuous year round recording of running wheel and freeding activity in cages exposed to natural meteorological conditions. 2. Trapping revealed decreased nocturnality in winter as compared to summer. This was paralelled by a winter reduction in both nocturnal wheel running and feeding time in cages. 3. Frequent trap checks revealed a 2 h rhythm in daytime catches in winter, not in summer. Cage feeding activity in daytime was always organized in c. 2 h intervals, but day-to-day variations in phase blurred the rhythm in summer in a summation of individual daily records. Thus both seasonal and short-term temporal patterns are consistent between field trappings and cage feeding records. 4. Variables associated with the seasonal change in daily pattern were: reproductive state (sexually active voles more nocturnal), age (juveniles more nocturnal), temperature (cold days: less nocturnal), food (indicated by feeding experiments), habitat structure (more nocturnal in habitat with underground tunnels). 5. Minor discrepancies between field trappings and cage feeding activity can be explained by assuming increased trappability of voles in winter. Cage wheel running is not predictive of field trapping patterns and is thought to reflect behavioral motivations not associated with feeding but with other activities (e.g., exploratory, escape, interactive behaviour) undetected by current methods, including radiotelemetry and passage-counting. 6. Winter decrease in nocturnality appears to involve a reduction in nocturnal non-feeding and feeding behaviour and is interpreted primarily as an adaptation to reduce energy expenditure in adverse but socially stable winter conditions.

What approaches to social prescribing work, for whom, and in what circumstances? A protocol for a realist review

The use of non-drug, non-health-service interventions has been proposed as a cost-effective alternative to help those with long-term conditions manage their illness and improve their health and well-being. Interventions typically involve accessing activities run by the third sector or community agencies and may also be described as non-medical referral, community referral or social prescribing. To be effective, patients need to be “transferred” from the primary care setting into the community and to maintain their participation in activities. However, it is not currently known how and why these approaches enable which people under what circumstances to reach community services that may benefit their health and well-being.The use of non-drug, non-health-service interventions has been proposed as a cost-effective alternative to help those with long-term conditions manage their illness and improve their health and well-being. Interventions typically involve accessing activities run by the third sector or community agencies and may also be described as non-medical referral, community referral or social prescribing. To be effective, patients need to be “transferred” from the primary care setting into the community and to maintain their participation in activities. However, it is not currently known how and why these approaches enable which people under what circumstances to reach community services that may benefit their health and well-being

Moving from evidence-based medicine to evidence-based health.

While evidence-based medicine (EBM) has advanced medical practice, the health care system has been inconsistent in translating EBM into improvements in health. Disparities in health and health care play out through patients' limited ability to incorporate the advances of EBM into their daily lives. Assisting patients to self-manage their chronic conditions and paying attention to unhealthy community factors could be added to EBM to create a broader paradigm of evidence-based health. A perspective of evidence-based health may encourage physicians to consider their role in upstream efforts to combat socially patterned chronic disease

Semantic distillation: a method for clustering objects by their contextual specificity

Techniques for data-mining, latent semantic analysis, contextual search of databases, etc. have long ago been developed by computer scientists working on information retrieval (IR). Experimental scientists, from all disciplines, having to analyse large collections of raw experimental data (astronomical, physical, biological, etc.) have developed powerful methods for their statistical analysis and for clustering, categorising, and classifying objects. Finally, physicists have developed a theory of quantum measurement, unifying the logical, algebraic, and probabilistic aspects of queries into a single formalism. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first to show that when formulated at an abstract level, problems from IR, from statistical data analysis, and from physical measurement theories are very similar and hence can profitably be cross-fertilised, and, secondly, to propose a novel method of fuzzy hierarchical clustering, termed \textit{semantic distillation} -- strongly inspired from the theory of quantum measurement --, we developed to analyse raw data coming from various types of experiments on DNA arrays. We illustrate the method by analysing DNA arrays experiments and clustering the genes of the array according to their specificity.Comment: Accepted for publication in Studies in Computational Intelligence, Springer-Verla

Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios

Pathogen survival trajectories: an eco-environmental approach to the modeling of human campylobacteriosis ecology.

Campylobacteriosis, like many human diseases, has its own ecology in which the propagation of human infection and disease depends on pathogen survival and finding new hosts in order to replicate and sustain the pathogen population. The complexity of this process, a process common to other enteric pathogens, has hampered control efforts. Many unknowns remain, resulting in a poorly understood disease ecology. To provide structure to these unknowns and help direct further research and intervention, we propose an eco-environmental modeling approach for campylobacteriosis. This modeling approach follows the pathogen population as it moves through the environments that define the physical structure of its ecology. In this paper, we term the ecologic processes and environments through which these populations move "pathogen survival trajectories." Although such a modeling approach could have veterinary applications, our emphasis is on human campylobacteriosis and focuses on human exposures to Campylobacter through feces, food, and aquatic environments. The pathogen survival trajectories that lead to human exposure include ecologic filters that limit population size, e.g., cooking food to kill Campylobacter. Environmental factors that influence the size of the pathogen reservoirs include temperature, nutrient availability, and moisture availability during the period of time the pathogen population is moving through the environment between infected and susceptible hosts. We anticipate that the modeling approach proposed here will work symbiotically with traditional epidemiologic and microbiologic research to help guide and evaluate the acquisition of new knowledge about the ecology, eventual intervention, and control of campylobacteriosis