Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Open and hidden agendas of "asymptomatic" patients who request check-up exams

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for a check-up recommend routine screening not triggered by specific symptoms for some known risk factors and diseases in the general population. Patients' perceptions and expectations regarding a check-up exam may differ from these principles. However, quantitative and qualitative data about the discrepancy between patient- and provider expectations for this type of clinic consultation is lacking. METHODS: For a year, we prospectively enrolled 66 patients who explicitly requested a "check-up" at our medical outpatient division. All patients actively denied upon prompting having any symptoms or specific health concerns at the time they made their appointment. All consultations were videotaped and analysed for information about spontaneously mentioned symptoms and reasons for the clinic consultation ("open agendas") and for cues to hidden patient agendas using the Roter interaction analysis system (RIAS). RESULTS: All patients initially declared to be asymptomatic but this was ultimately the case in only 7 out of 66 patients. The remaining 59 patients spontaneously mentioned a mean of 4.2 ± 3.3 symptoms during their first consultation. In 23 patients a total of 31 hidden agendas were revealed. The primary categories for hidden agendas were health concerns, psychosocial concerns and the patient's concept of disease. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients requesting a general check-up tend to be motivated by specific symptoms and health concerns and are not "asymptomatic" patients who primarily come for preventive issues. Furthermore, physicians must be alert for possible hidden agendas, as one in three patients have one or more hidden reasons for requesting a check-up

A transcriptomic snapshot of early molecular communication between Pasteuria penetrans and Meloidogyne incognita

© The Author(s). 2018Background: Southern root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid and White, 1919), Chitwood, 1949 is a key pest of agricultural crops. Pasteuria penetrans is a hyperparasitic bacterium capable of suppressing the nematode reproduction, and represents a typical coevolved pathogen-hyperparasite system. Attachment of Pasteuria endospores to the cuticle of second-stage nematode juveniles is the first and pivotal step in the bacterial infection. RNA-Seq was used to understand the early transcriptional response of the root-knot nematode at 8 h post Pasteuria endospore attachment. Results: A total of 52,485 transcripts were assembled from the high quality (HQ) reads, out of which 582 transcripts were found differentially expressed in the Pasteuria endospore encumbered J2 s, of which 229 were up-regulated and 353 were down-regulated. Pasteuria infection caused a suppression of the protein synthesis machinery of the nematode. Several of the differentially expressed transcripts were putatively involved in nematode innate immunity, signaling, stress responses, endospore attachment process and post-attachment behavioral modification of the juveniles. The expression profiles of fifteen selected transcripts were validated to be true by the qRT PCR. RNAi based silencing of transcripts coding for fructose bisphosphate aldolase and glucosyl transferase caused a reduction in endospore attachment as compared to the controls, whereas, silencing of aspartic protease and ubiquitin coding transcripts resulted in higher incidence of endospore attachment on the nematode cuticle. Conclusions: Here we provide evidence of an early transcriptional response by the nematode upon infection by Pasteuria prior to root invasion. We found that adhesion of Pasteuria endospores to the cuticle induced a down-regulated protein response in the nematode. In addition, we show that fructose bisphosphate aldolase, glucosyl transferase, aspartic protease and ubiquitin coding transcripts are involved in modulating the endospore attachment on the nematode cuticle. Our results add new and significant information to the existing knowledge on early molecular interaction between M. incognita and P. penetrans.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Cold gas accretion in galaxies

Evidence for the accretion of cold gas in galaxies has been rapidly accumulating in the past years. HI observations of galaxies and their environment have brought to light new facts and phenomena which are evidence of ongoing or recent accretion: 1) A large number of galaxies are accompanied by gas-rich dwarfs or are surrounded by HI cloud complexes, tails and filaments. It may be regarded as direct evidence of cold gas accretion in the local universe. It is probably the same kind of phenomenon of material infall as the stellar streams observed in the halos of our galaxy and M31. 2) Considerable amounts of extra-planar HI have been found in nearby spiral galaxies. While a large fraction of this gas is produced by galactic fountains, it is likely that a part of it is of extragalactic origin. 3) Spirals are known to have extended and warped outer layers of HI. It is not clear how these have formed, and how and for how long the warps can be sustained. Gas infall has been proposed as the origin. 4) The majority of galactic disks are lopsided in their morphology as well as in their kinematics. Also here recent accretion has been advocated as a possible cause. In our view, accretion takes place both through the arrival and merging of gas-rich satellites and through gas infall from the intergalactic medium (IGM). The infall may have observable effects on the disk such as bursts of star formation and lopsidedness. We infer a mean ``visible'' accretion rate of cold gas in galaxies of at least 0.2 Msol/yr. In order to reach the accretion rates needed to sustain the observed star formation (~1 Msol/yr), additional infall of large amounts of gas from the IGM seems to be required.Comment: To appear in Astronomy & Astrophysics Reviews. 34 pages. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astron.nl/~oosterlo/accretionRevie

Small but crucial : the novel small heat shock protein Hsp21 mediates stress adaptation and virulence in Candida albicans

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Genetic counselling for psychiatric disorders: accounts of psychiatric health professionals in the United Kingdom

Genetic counselling is not routinely offered for psychiatric disorders in the United Kingdom through NHS regional clinical genetics departments. However, recent genomic advances, confirming a genetic contribution to mental illness, are anticipated to increase demand for psychiatric genetic counselling. This is the first study of its kind to employ qualitative methods of research to explore accounts of psychiatric health professionals regarding the prospects for genetic counselling services within clinical psychiatry in the UK. Data were collected from 32 questionnaire participants, and 9 subsequent interviewees. Data analysis revealed that although participants had not encountered patients explicitly demanding psychiatric genetic counselling, psychiatric health professionals believe that such a service would be useful and desirable. Genomic advances may have significant implications for genetic counselling in clinical psychiatry even if these discoveries do not lead to genetic testing. Psychiatric health professionals describe clinical genetics as a skilled profession capable of combining complex risk communication with much needed psychosocial support. However, participants noted barriers to the implementation of psychiatric genetic counselling services including, but not limited to, the complexities of uncertainty in psychiatric diagnoses, patient engagement and ethical concerns regarding limited capacity

Parental rating of sleep in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Objective: Sleep problems have often been associated with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Parents of those with ADHD and children with ADHD report sleep difficulties more frequently than healthy children and their parents. The primary objective of this paper is to describe sleep patterns and problems of 5 to 11-year-old children suffering from ADHD as described by parental reports and sleep questionnaires. Method: The study included 321 children aged 5–11 years (average age 8.4 years); 45 were diagnosed with ADHD, 64 had other psychiatric diagnoses, and 212 were healthy. One hundred and ninety-six of the test subjects were boys and 125 were girls. A semi-structured interview (Kiddie-SADS-PL) was used to DSM-IV diagnose ADHD and comorbidity in the clinical group. Sleep difficulties were rated using a structured sleep questionnaire (Children Sleep Behaviour Scale). Results: Children diagnosed with ADHD had a significantly increased occurrence of sleep problems. Difficulties relating to bedtime and unsettled sleep were significantly more frequent in the ADHD group than in the other groups. Children with ADHD showed prolonged sleep onset latency, but no difference was shown regarding numbers of awakenings per night and total sleep time per night. Comorbid oppositional defiant disorder appeared not to have an added effect on problematic behaviour around bedtime. Conclusion: Parents of children with ADHD report that their children do not sleep properly more often than other parents. The ADHD group report problems with bedtime resistance, problems with sleep onset latency, unsettled sleep and nightmares more often than the control groups. It may therefore be relevant for clinicians to initiate a closer examination of those cases reporting sleep difficulties

Autoimmune and autoinflammatory mechanisms in uveitis

The eye, as currently viewed, is neither immunologically ignorant nor sequestered from the systemic environment. The eye utilises distinct immunoregulatory mechanisms to preserve tissue and cellular function in the face of immune-mediated insult; clinically, inflammation following such an insult is termed uveitis. The intra-ocular inflammation in uveitis may be clinically obvious as a result of infection (e.g. toxoplasma, herpes), but in the main infection, if any, remains covert. We now recognise that healthy tissues including the retina have regulatory mechanisms imparted by control of myeloid cells through receptors (e.g. CD200R) and soluble inhibitory factors (e.g. alpha-MSH), regulation of the blood retinal barrier, and active immune surveillance. Once homoeostasis has been disrupted and inflammation ensues, the mechanisms to regulate inflammation, including T cell apoptosis, generation of Treg cells, and myeloid cell suppression in situ, are less successful. Why inflammation becomes persistent remains unknown, but extrapolating from animal models, possibilities include differential trafficking of T cells from the retina, residency of CD8(+) T cells, and alterations of myeloid cell phenotype and function. Translating lessons learned from animal models to humans has been helped by system biology approaches and informatics, which suggest that diseased animals and people share similar changes in T cell phenotypes and monocyte function to date. Together the data infer a possible cryptic infectious drive in uveitis that unlocks and drives persistent autoimmune responses, or promotes further innate immune responses. Thus there may be many mechanisms in common with those observed in autoinflammatory disorders