Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p

Inference of hidden structures in complex physical systems by multi-scale clustering

We survey the application of a relatively new branch of statistical physics--"community detection"-- to data mining. In particular, we focus on the diagnosis of materials and automated image segmentation. Community detection describes the quest of partitioning a complex system involving many elements into optimally decoupled subsets or communities of such elements. We review a multiresolution variant which is used to ascertain structures at different spatial and temporal scales. Significant patterns are obtained by examining the correlations between different independent solvers. Similar to other combinatorial optimization problems in the NP complexity class, community detection exhibits several phases. Typically, illuminating orders are revealed by choosing parameters that lead to extremal information theory correlations.Comment: 25 pages, 16 Figures; a review of earlier work

Analysis of meniscal degeneration and meniscal gene expression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Menisci play a vital role in load transmission, shock absorption and joint stability. There is increasing evidence suggesting that OA menisci may not merely be bystanders in the disease process of OA. This study sought: 1) to determine the prevalence of meniscal degeneration in OA patients, and 2) to examine gene expression in OA meniscal cells compared to normal meniscal cells.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Studies were approved by our human subjects Institutional Review Board. Menisci and articular cartilage were collected during joint replacement surgery for OA patients and lower limb amputation surgery for osteosarcoma patients (normal control specimens), and graded. Meniscal cells were prepared from these meniscal tissues and expanded in monolayer culture. Differential gene expression in OA meniscal cells and normal meniscal cells was examined using Affymetrix microarray and real time RT-PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The grades of meniscal degeneration correlated with the grades of articular cartilage degeneration (r = 0.672; P < 0.0001). Many of the genes classified in the biological processes of immune response, inflammatory response, biomineral formation and cell proliferation, including major histocompatibility complex, class II, DP alpha 1 (<it>HLA-DPA1</it>), integrin, beta 2 (<it>ITGB2</it>), ectonucleotide pyrophosphatase/phosphodiesterase 1 (<it>ENPP1</it>), ankylosis, progressive homolog (<it>ANKH</it>) and fibroblast growth factor 7 (<it>FGF7</it>), were expressed at significantly higher levels in OA meniscal cells compared to normal meniscal cells. Importantly, many of the genes that have been shown to be differentially expressed in other OA cell types/tissues, including ADAM metallopeptidase with thrombospondin type 1 motif 5 (<it>ADAMTS5</it>) and prostaglandin E synthase (<it>PTGES</it>), were found to be expressed at significantly higher levels in OA meniscal cells. This consistency suggests that many of the genes detected in our study are disease-specific.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that OA is a whole joint disease. Meniscal cells may play an active role in the development of OA. Investigation of the gene expression profiles of OA meniscal cells may reveal new therapeutic targets for OA therapy and also may uncover novel disease markers for early diagnosis of OA.</p

Social features of online networks: the strength of intermediary ties in online social media

An increasing fraction of today social interactions occur using online social media as communication channels. Recent worldwide events, such as social movements in Spain or revolts in the Middle East, highlight their capacity to boost people coordination. Online networks display in general a rich internal structure where users can choose among different types and intensity of interactions. Despite of this, there are still open questions regarding the social value of online interactions. For example, the existence of users with millions of online friends sheds doubts on the relevance of these relations. In this work, we focus on Twitter, one of the most popular online social networks, and find that the network formed by the basic type of connections is organized in groups. The activity of the users conforms to the landscape determined by such groups. Furthermore, Twitter's distinction between different types of interactions allows us to establish a parallelism between online and offline social networks: personal interactions are more likely to occur on internal links to the groups (the weakness of strong ties), events transmitting new information go preferentially through links connecting different groups (the strength of weak ties) or even more through links connecting to users belonging to several groups that act as brokers (the strength of intermediary ties).Comment: 14 pages, 18 figure

Optimization of Muscle Activity for Task-Level Goals Predicts Complex Changes in Limb Forces across Biomechanical Contexts

Optimality principles have been proposed as a general framework for understanding motor control in animals and humans largely based on their ability to predict general features movement in idealized motor tasks. However, generalizing these concepts past proof-of-principle to understand the neuromechanical transformation from task-level control to detailed execution-level muscle activity and forces during behaviorally-relevant motor tasks has proved difficult. In an unrestrained balance task in cats, we demonstrate that achieving task-level constraints center of mass forces and moments while minimizing control effort predicts detailed patterns of muscle activity and ground reaction forces in an anatomically-realistic musculoskeletal model. Whereas optimization is typically used to resolve redundancy at a single level of the motor hierarchy, we simultaneously resolved redundancy across both muscles and limbs and directly compared predictions to experimental measures across multiple perturbation directions that elicit different intra- and interlimb coordination patterns. Further, although some candidate task-level variables and cost functions generated indistinguishable predictions in a single biomechanical context, we identified a common optimization framework that could predict up to 48 experimental conditions per animal (n = 3) across both perturbation directions and different biomechanical contexts created by altering animals' postural configuration. Predictions were further improved by imposing experimentally-derived muscle synergy constraints, suggesting additional task variables or costs that may be relevant to the neural control of balance. These results suggested that reduced-dimension neural control mechanisms such as muscle synergies can achieve similar kinetics to the optimal solution, but with increased control effort (≈2×) compared to individual muscle control. Our results are consistent with the idea that hierarchical, task-level neural control mechanisms previously associated with voluntary tasks may also be used in automatic brainstem-mediated pathways for balance

Convergence in international business ethics? A comparative study of ethical philosophies, thinking style, and ethical decision-making between US and Korean managers

This study investigates the relationship among ethical philosophy, thinking style, and managerial ethical decision-making. Based on the premise that business ethics is a function of culture and time, we attempt to explore two important questions as to whether the national differences in managerial ethical philosophies remain over time and whether the relationship between thinking style and ethical decision-making is consistent across different national contexts. We conducted a survey on Korean managers’ ethical decision-making and thinking style and made a cross-cultural, cross-temporal comparison with the results presented by previous studies that surveyed Korean and US managers with the same questionnaire at different points in time. Our analysis revealed that Korean managers have become more reliant on rule utilitarianism for ethical decision-making over the last two decades, which is dominantly used by US managers, corroborating our convergence hypothesis built on social contracts theory. However, as opposed to previous research, we found that managers with a balanced linear and nonlinear thinking style do not necessarily make more ethical decisions compared to those with a predominantly linear or nonlinear thinking style. This study contributes to international business ethics literature by presenting a theoretical framework that may explain the convergence of ethical philosophies employed by managers in different national contexts over time, and that the relationship between thinking style and managerial ethical decision-making may not be universal, but contingent on contextual factors

Analysis of Common and Specific Mechanisms of Liver Function Affected by Nitrotoluene Compounds

BACKGROUND: Nitrotoluenes are widely used chemical manufacturing and munitions applications. This group of chemicals has been shown to cause a range of effects from anemia and hypercholesterolemia to testicular atrophy. We have examined the molecular and functional effects of five different, but structurally related, nitrotoluenes on using an integrative systems biology approach to gain insight into common and disparate mechanisms underlying effects caused by these chemicals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sprague-Dawley female rats were exposed via gavage to one of five concentrations of one of five nitrotoluenes [2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2-amino-4,6-dinitrotoluene (2ADNT) 4-amino-2,6-dinitrotoulene (4ADNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4DNT) and 2,6-dinitrotoluene (2,6DNT)] with necropsy and tissue collection at 24 or 48 h. Gene expression profile results correlated well with clinical data and liver histopathology that lead to the concept that hematotoxicity was followed by hepatotoxicity. Overall, 2,4DNT, 2,6DNT and TNT had stronger effects than 2ADNT and 4ADNT. Common functional terms, gene expression patterns, pathways and networks were regulated across all nitrotoluenes. These pathways included NRF2-mediated oxidative stress response, aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling, LPS/IL-1 mediated inhibition of RXR function, xenobiotic metabolism signaling and metabolism of xenobiotics by cytochrome P450. One biological process common to all compounds, lipid metabolism, was found to be impacted both at the transcriptional and lipid production level. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A systems biology strategy was used to identify biochemical pathways affected by five nitroaromatic compounds and to integrate data that tie biochemical alterations to pathological changes. An integrative graphical network model was constructed by combining genomic, gene pathway, lipidomic, and physiological endpoint results to better understand mechanisms of liver toxicity and physiological endpoints affected by these compounds

International AIDS Society global scientific strategy: towards an HIV cure 2016

Antiretroviral therapy is not curative. Given the challenges in providing lifelong therapy to a global population of more than 35 million people living with HIV, there is intense interest in developing a cure for HIV infection. The International AIDS Society convened a group of international experts to develop a scientific strategy for research towards an HIV cure. This Perspective summarizes the group's strategy