Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)—a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed ‘unusual’, ‘unfamiliar’ and ‘unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of ‘unknown’ or ‘unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now

Evaluating the impact of MEDLINE filters on evidence retrieval: study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rather than searching the entire MEDLINE database, clinicians can perform searches on a filtered set of articles where relevant information is more likely to be found. Members of our team previously developed two types of MEDLINE filters. The 'methods' filters help identify clinical research of high methodological merit. The 'content' filters help identify articles in the discipline of renal medicine. We will now test the utility of these filters for physician MEDLINE searching.</p> <p>Hypothesis</p> <p>When a physician searches MEDLINE, we hypothesize the use of filters will increase the number of relevant articles retrieved (increase 'recall,' also called sensitivity) and decrease the number of non-relevant articles retrieved (increase 'precision,' also called positive predictive value), compared to the performance of a physician's search unaided by filters.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We will survey a random sample of 100 nephrologists in Canada to obtain the MEDLINE search that they would first perform themselves for a focused clinical question. Each question we provide to a nephrologist will be based on the topic of a recently published, well-conducted systematic review. We will examine the performance of a physician's unaided MEDLINE search. We will then apply a total of eight filter combinations to the search (filters used in isolation or in combination). We will calculate the recall and precision of each search. The filter combinations that most improve on unaided physician searches will be identified and characterized.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>If these filters improve search performance, physicians will be able to search MEDLINE for renal evidence more effectively, in less time, and with less frustration. Additionally, our methodology can be used as a proof of concept for the evaluation of search filters in other disciplines.</p

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies

The Urokinase Receptor (uPAR) Facilitates Clearance of Borrelia burgdorferi

The causative agent of Lyme borreliosis, the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi, has been shown to induce expression of the urokinase receptor (uPAR); however, the role of uPAR in the immune response against Borrelia has never been investigated. uPAR not only acts as a proteinase receptor, but can also, dependently or independently of ligation to uPA, directly affect leukocyte function. We here demonstrate that uPAR is upregulated on murine and human leukocytes upon exposure to B. burgdorferi both in vitro as well as in vivo. Notably, B. burgdorferi-inoculated C57BL/6 uPAR knock-out mice harbored significantly higher Borrelia numbers compared to WT controls. This was associated with impaired phagocytotic capacity of B. burgdorferi by uPAR knock-out leukocytes in vitro. B. burgdorferi numbers in vivo, and phagocytotic capacity in vitro, were unaltered in uPA, tPA (low fibrinolytic activity) and PAI-1 (high fibrinolytic activity) knock-out mice compared to WT controls. Strikingly, in uPAR knock-out mice partially backcrossed to a B. burgdorferi susceptible C3H/HeN background, higher B. burgdorferi numbers were associated with more severe carditis and increased local TLR2 and IL-1β mRNA expression. In conclusion, in B. burgdorferi infection, uPAR is required for phagocytosis and adequate eradication of the spirochete from the heart by a mechanism that is independent of binding of uPAR to uPA or its role in the fibrinolytic system

Particle size analysis of concentrated phospholipid microemulsions: I. Total intensity light scattering

Water-in-oil phospholipid microemulsions prepared from a constant total surfactant/cosurfactant concentration of 25 wt% at four different lecithin/alcohol weight ratios (Km of 1∶1, 1.5∶1, 1.77∶1, and 1.94∶1) and containing water concentrations (or volume fractions) ranging from 2.0 to 26 wt% (or 0.04 to 0.26) have been examined at 298 K using total intensity light scattering. The data obtained were analysed using the hard-sphere model of Percus-Yevick, modified to account for the partitioning of the alcohol between the various phases. The light-scattering results showed that, regardless of the Km or the alcohol used, a minimum water concentration of at least 9 wt% was required for the formation of a microemulsion; although this value was reasonably constant for each of the alcohols investigated, there was a tendency for a slightly higher concentration of water to be required for microemulsion formation at higher Km values. Simple calculations suggested that a microemulsion was formed only when sufficient water was present to satisfy the hydration of both the phospholipid head groups and the hydroxyl groups of the cosurfactant associated with the droplet. At water concentrations lower than this minimum value, a cosolvent system was observed. In all systems above this minimum concentration, as the concentration of water increased, the size of the microemulsion droplets also increased. Surprisingly, however, there was little difference in the size of the microemulsion droplets obtained with the different alcohols, regardless of the Km, although for a particular alcohol there was some indication that the higher Km systems produced the slightly smaller droplets for an equivalent water concentration. There was also a suggestion that the more hydrophobic alcohols produced slightly smaller droplets than the more polar alcohols at the same Km

Particle size analysis of concentrated phospholipid microemulsions: II. Photon correlation spectroscopy

The solvated droplet size of concentrated water-in-oil (w/o) microemulsions prepared frome egg and soy lecithin/water/isopropyl myristate and containing short-chain alcohol cosurfactants has been determined using photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS). The effect of increasing the water volume fraction (from 0.04 to 0.26) on the solvated size of the w/o droplets at 298 K has been investigated at 4 different surfactant/cosurfactant weight ratios (Km of 1∶1, 1.5∶1, 1.77∶1, and 1.94∶1); in all cases the total surfactant/cosurfactant concentration was kept constant at 25% w/w. In the case of the microemulsions prepared from egg lecthin, the diffusion coefficients obtained from PCS measurements were corrected for interparticulate interactions using a hard-sphere model that necessitated estimation of the droplet volume fractions, which in the present study were obtained from earlier total intensity light-scattering (TILS) studies performed on the same systems. Once corrected for hard-sphere interactions, the diffusion coefficients were converted to solvated radii using the Stokes-Einstein equation assuming spherical microemulsion droplets. For both egg and soy lecithin systems, no microemulsion droplets were detected at water concentrations less than 9 wt% regardless of the alcohol and Km used, suggesting that at low concentrations of added water, cosolvent systems were formed. At higher water concentrations, however, microemulsion droplets were observed. The changes in droplet size followed the expected trend in that for a fixed Km the size of the microemulsion droplets increased with increasing volume fraction of water. At constant water concentration, droplet size decreased slightly upon increasing Km. Interestingly, only small differences in size were seen upon changing the type of alcohol used. The application of the hard-sphere model to account for interparticulate interactions for the egg lecithin systems indicated that the uncorrected diffusion coefficients underestimated particle size by a factor of slightly less than 2. Reassuringly, the corrected droplet sizes agreed very well with those obtained from our earlier TILS study