Emerging Infectious Disease leads to Rapid Population Decline of Common British Birds

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period

Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity

SUMMARY Though largely controlled in developed countries, measles remains a major global public health issue. Regional and local transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behaviour across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics helps define and predict outbreak patterns. Using spatially explicit reported cases from measles outbreaks in Niger, we explored how regional variations in movement and contact patterns relate to patterns of measles incidence. Because we expected to see lower rates of re-introductions in small, compared to large, populations, we measured the population-size corrected proportion of weeks with zero cases across districts to understand relative rates of measles re-introductions. We found that critical elements of spatial disease dynamics in Niger are agricultural seasonality, transnational contact clusters, and roads networks that facilitate host movement and connectivity. These results highlight the need to understand local patterns of seasonality, demographic characteristics, and spatial heterogeneities to inform vaccination policy

Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

In metropolitan areas people travel frequently and extensively but often in highly structured commuting patterns. We investigate the role of this type of human movement in the epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens such as dengue. Analysis is based on a metapopulation model where mobile humans connect static mosquito subpopulations. We find that, due to frequency dependent biting, infection incidence in the human and mosquito populations is almost independent of the duration of contact. If the mosquito population is not uniformly distributed between patches the transmission potential of the pathogen at the metapopulation level, as summarized by the basic reproductive number, is determined by the size of the largest subpopulation and reduced by stronger connectivity. Global extinction of the pathogen is less likely when increased human movement enhances the rescue effect but, in contrast to classical theory, it is not minimized at an intermediate level of connectivity. We conclude that hubs and reservoirs of infection can be places people visit frequently but briefly and the relative importance of human and mosquito populations in maintaining the pathogen depends on the distribution of the mosquito population and the variability in human travel patterns. These results offer an insight in to the paradoxical observation of resurgent urban vector-borne disease despite increased investment in vector control and suggest that successful public health intervention may require a dual approach. Prospective studies can be used to identify areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a large fraction of the human population. Retrospective studies can be used to map recent movements of infected people, pinpointing the mosquito subpopulation from which they acquired the infection and others to which they may have transmitted it

Influenza A Gradual and Epochal Evolution: Insights from Simple Models

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a “continuous antigenic drift” scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level

Demand for Zn2+ in Acid-Secreting Gastric Mucosa and Its Requirement for Intracellular Ca2+

Recent work has suggested that Zn(2+) plays a critical role in regulating acidity within the secretory compartments of isolated gastric glands. Here, we investigate the content, distribution and demand for Zn(2+) in gastric mucosa under baseline conditions and its regulation during secretory stimulation.Content and distribution of zinc were evaluated in sections of whole gastric mucosa using X-ray fluorescence microscopy. Significant stores of Zn(2+) were identified in neural elements of the muscularis, glandular areas enriched in parietal cells, and apical regions of the surface epithelium. In in vivo studies, extraction of the low abundance isotope, (70)Zn(2+), from the circulation was demonstrated in samples of mucosal tissue 24 hours or 72 hours after infusion (250 µg/kg). In in vitro studies, uptake of (70)Zn(2+) from media was demonstrated in isolated rabbit gastric glands following exposure to concentrations as low as 10 nM. In additional studies, demand of individual gastric parietal cells for Zn(2+) was monitored using the fluorescent zinc reporter, fluozin-3, by measuring increases in free intracellular concentrations of Zn(2+) {[Zn(2+)](i)} during exposure to standard extracellular concentrations of Zn(2+) (10 µM) for standard intervals of time. Under resting conditions, demand for extracellular Zn(2+) increased with exposure to secretagogues (forskolin, carbachol/histamine) and under conditions associated with increased intracellular Ca(2+) {[Ca(2+)](i)}. Uptake of Zn(2+) was abolished following removal of extracellular Ca(2+) or depletion of intracellular Ca(2+) stores, suggesting that demand for extracellular Zn(2+) increases and depends on influx of extracellular Ca(2+).This study is the first to characterize the content and distribution of Zn(2+) in an organ of the gastrointestinal tract. Our findings offer the novel interpretation, that Ca(2+) integrates basolateral demand for Zn(2+) with stimulation of secretion of HCl into the lumen of the gastric gland. Similar connections may be detectable in other secretory cells and tissues

Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne virus that infects 50-100 million people each year. Of these infections, 200,000-500,000 occur as the severe, life-threatening form of the disease, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Large, unanticipated epidemics of DHF often overwhelm health systems. An understanding of the spatial-temporal pattern of DHF incidence would aid the allocation of resources to combat these epidemics. Here we examine the spatial-temporal dynamics of DHF incidence in a data set describing 850,000 infections occurring in 72 provinces of Thailand during the period 1983 to 1997. We use the method of empirical mode decomposition to show the existence of a spatial-temporal travelling wave in the incidence of DHF. We observe this wave in a three-year periodic component of variance, which is thought to reflect host-pathogen population dynamics. The wave emanates from Bangkok, the largest city in Thailand, moving radially at a speed of 148km per month. This finding provides an important starting point for detecting and characterizing the key processes that contribute to the spatial-temporal dynamics of DHF in Thailand